A few weeks later and what exactly happened to England vs Argentina? There were different explanations after the match: did Tuchel tell his players to sit back, did they retreat themselves and he tried to reverse it, or did Argentina simply force them back? 🧵exploring below.

104 matches. 48 teams. 38 days of football. Millions of data points. Now that the World Cup is over, I wanted to put together a quick summary of some of the tactical and data analysis work I did throughout the tournament.

Porro's position IP for Spain while they build on the left is absolutely critical. Always positioned in a safe position for rest defense in case of a turnover to be able to counter press, but well positioned to make that blindside run between the CB and FB like against France.

Based on line up, point here re 4v3 midfield for #Argentina likely means Messi drops in, Nico Gonzalez exploits space in behind Cucurella, since no Paredes.

Steven Dabdoub@stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 2w ago

The last match before we wait 4 more years for another FIFA World Cup. #Spain vs #Argentina in a World Cup final. Messi, Yamal, La Masia, connections on and off the field in a fixture that hasn't been played competitively for over 50 years. Major Preview Thread!

The last match before we wait 4 more years for another FIFA World Cup. #Spain vs #Argentina in a World Cup final. Messi, Yamal, La Masia, connections on and off the field in a fixture that hasn't been played competitively for over 50 years. Major Preview Thread!

Although a lot may be different today considering no one really wants to play and the rotations, I expect my model to be right and favor #France to beat #England, possibly even by more than 1. Interesting territory battle as both teams are flexible given game state and moments.

Tuchel's game management was poor. But a deeper convo HAS to be had about the arrogance of the English methodology and the stubbornness/refusal to learn and innovate. That has promoted the culture that made Tuchel make the decisions he did. It continues to hurt English ftball.

For me, #France #Spain was a much easier game to call than #England #Argentina. Today, again I am against a lot of models/bookies that have England as favorites. My model has Argentina more likely to win: 45.7% in 90 and 53.2% by 120, with a very close territory control battle.

It's less about how bad #France were and more about Spain. France? A group of individuals whose talent carried them but unable to play as a cohesive system at the level required and when the day came to play #Spain, I was always confident the team would prevail over individuals.

The Athletic@theathletic.com · 3w ago

Everything was just slightly overhit or misdirected. Every good idea was undone in the execution. Why did Mbappe and France’s attacking stars fail? Takeaways from Les Bleus' loss to Spain: nyti.ms/4pj1eXk

What is even more interesting here is France has the shot quality edge, Spain has the ball recovery edge. Which matters more? 👇

Steven Dabdoub@stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 3w ago

Interesting here from my EFI Dashboard France? Better shot quality that ESP with similar shot quantity Spain? Better ball recovery time with similar Final 3rd Control and more forced turnovers with similar # of pressures. Key? Spain has to make their chances count.

Tonight #Spain and #France face off in what could have been a final. The best attack vs the best defense. But which prevails? France are slight favorites, but my prediction model disagrees giving ESP a slight edge.

#FIFAWorldCup Quarter-Final match reviews. #France didn't have more possession vs #Morocco but pressed better and had more possession where it mattered (field tilt) hence the threat map. 2-0 win with more penalty area entries and a more symmetric centralized pass network

www.theguardian.com/football/202... First time the top 4 FIFA ranked teams have all gone to the semi-finals. FIFA gets, what FIFA wants. Disgraceful manipulation of the game.

World Cup 2026 draw to adopt tennis-style system for the four top seeds

The world’s top four teams will not be able to meet until the World Cup semi-finals if they win their groups under a new seeding system

theguardian.com

If I'm Ruben Vargas for #Switzerland, I'd be itching to come on. Dangerous carrier/progressor of the ball. Good chance creator, with high shot quality.

#Argentina are now 1-0 up which is a problem for #Switzerland: 99 pctile passing/retention 95 pctile npxGA prevention 91 pctile box protection 89 pctile shot suppression

#Argentina are favorites, but #Switzerland could make this game very uncomfortable. My model gives #Argentina a 63.4% chance to win in 90 mins, with 1–0 the most likely score. But #Switzerland are projected to slightly control more territory 51-49.

#Norway aren't favorites, but with Haaland who knows? My model has #England at 71.6% to win in 90 minutes and to control dangerous territory 57–43. But given England's RB issues, Schjelderup and Gordon getting starts. More than the STs, the LWs could decide today

#Belgium’s path today is not control. It is escape. #Spain are 68.2% favorites in my model to win and control territory 59–41. Belgium need to escape Spain’s counter-press — over, through or around it, to threaten Spain.

Unlike the 2022 team, this #Morocco team is much more possession sequence oriented and dynamic in their defensive approach hence the EFI Dashboard spending a solid share of time counter-pressing in a low block or a mid block. Efficient and flexible. stevendabdoub.shinyapps.io/2026FIFAWorl...

Is revenge on the cards for #Morocco tonight? In 2022, #France forced a Morocco team then built on compact defending, to have 62.7% possession and 67.7% field tilt in a 2–0 loss. 2026 Morocco seeks more territory, but my model still favors France to control enough and win.

#FIFAWorldCup QFs start tomorrow. The bracket is not balanced. Left half? #France, #Morocco, #Spain, #Belgium. Avg strength: 88.5 Right half? More open. #Norway, #England, #Argentina, #Switzerland. Avg strength: 80.4 Closest tie? ESP vs BEL. ENG on paper have the easiest game.

#Argentina dominated and almost got shocked. #Colombia created more with less territory but were out on PKs. ARG: 82% field tilt, 2.8 xG, 3–2 #Messi escape. COL: 15 shots, 1.03 xG vs 0.35 for #Switzerland Knockout football does not reward domination or territory but survival.

Here we are again with Switzerland and Colombia. Keeping my eyes to see if the data holds up again.

Steven Dabdoub@stevendabdoub.bsky.social · last mo.

Well, it seemed like we were about to head to extra time between #Canada and #SouthAfrica. However, as we enter the KO rounds of the #WorldCup. Here are some pretty cool data vizzes I made on penalties! (1/3)as

Well it's not a surprise that #Colombia #Switzerland is this cagey and in ET considering it being by far the closest/most competitive Ro16 game based on my bracket.

Steven Dabdoub@stevendabdoub.bsky.social · last mo.

Updated #WorldCup strength bracket, #USMNT, #Spain #Portugal and #Belgium all in a tricky path. While #France likely have it easiest close to #Argentina.

#Switzerland? Slightly better pressing than #Colombia with slightly better ball recovery time, more forced turnovers with similar amount of pressures applied (i.e. more effective/efficient pressing) and 83rd pctile for counter pressing. via my EFI Dashboard

Stylistically? Besides Spain vs Portugal, #Colombia #Switzerland could be one of the closest games, with similar pressing numbers and final third control. With a 1-1 draw projected at 12.5% the margins in this game could be some of the finest in the Ro16, but Colombia favored.

#Argentina are heavy favorites — 75.9% to win in 90, with 2–0 the most likely score. But the projected territory is only 52–48. #Egypt may not need to dominate the ball, but may also have opportunities to do so and should make them count.

Not even sure if the data on a match dashboard or any tactical discussions because the #USMNT did not show up today. Late to fight for any loose balls, second duels, everything. Absolutely lax and outplayed by what hass been a poor #Belgium team.

Well hello there

Steven Dabdoub@stevendabdoub.bsky.social · last mo.

via @gradientsports.bsky.social Very contestable point I know, but Tillman imo is more important to the #USMNT than Pulisic and/or Balo. Absolutely clutch player on and off the ball. Especially as it relates to breaking lines and progressing the ball.

#USMNT looking absolutely out of it, zoned out, phased out, non existent in the game