6/6 If the gas turbine shortage normalizes – why would the market want to build a series of redundant $BW boiler plants sitting alongside abundant modern, efficient CCGT plants?

5/6 And to convert $BW's proposed plant to CCGT means getting a modern gas turbine – the exact piece of equipment that is supposedly in such chronic short supply that we’re rebooting 1980s boiler power.

4/6 $BW’s share price implies they will make 9-10 boiler plants by 2046, which seems to only make sense if the gas turbine shortage persists for two decades.

3/6 Building a new CCGT plant around an archaic steam boiler plant means you could re-use the steam turbine (which $BW doesn’t make), but the boilers (that $BW makes) would likely be switched off or sparingly used due to cost.

2/6 CCGT plants don’t use $BW boilers, they use a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) to make steam. In very simplified terms – a $BW boiler makes steam like a saucepan on a gas stove. An HRSG makes steam like a car radiator with the cap off – absorbing engine heat into tubes filled with water.

1/6 One of the most confusing things to us about $BWs strategy (and why we are SHORT $BW) is their new plan to build 1980s steam boiler plants then transform them into modern CCGT plants at a later date. You can hear $BW CEO discuss the plan on @cnbc.com here at 5:10 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpx2...

Mad Money Interview with Babcock & Wilcox CEO Kenneth Young - Powering Data Centers

YouTube video by Babcock & Wilcox

youtube.com

I've had the pleasure of getting to know the folks running Sunlight over the past few years. It's an ESG centered short activism fund and their first publication makes a compelling case that gas boiler maker $BW is an inefficient, environmentally damaging promote with little economically to support

Sunlight Partners@sunlightpartners.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Why is a 160-year-old boiler maker Babcock & Wilcox proposing to build a high-cost, high-emissions, 1980s style power plant for data centres? Sunlight Partners is short shares of $BW; See our report and disclosures here sunlight.partners/disclaimer-bw. 1/10

There is a reason no US utility has built this style of gas steam plant in 41 years, and why no other data centers or boiler makers are proposing to build one now. Optimistic analysts believe $BW can build 10 of these plants in the next 20 years; we doubt they'll build one. 10/10

A new plan to add gas turbines to this archaic plant at a later date to create a “Combined-Cycle Plant” seems illogical – because Combined-Cycle plants don’t use boilers. 9/10

Until then, its core business was servicing remaining 1950s-60s era power plants for parts and maintenance. Its share price has since jumped 400%, and major investor $RILY has been dumping stock. 8/10

Related parties $RILY, $APLD, and $BW developed the project in a sharp pivot to "AI Power" in late 2025, fueled by circular investments, warrant incentives and hype. 7/10

Claims of starting operations by 2028 are absurdly optimist and twice as fast as permitting and construction timelines for recent (modern) gas plants in North Dakota. 6/10

The company claims it has a “Speed to Power” advantage because steam turbines are currently easier to acquire than modern gas turbines, but this is undermined by the realities of power plant permitting. 5/10

Beyond that, it would compete in the oversupplied North Dakota market, a net exporter of electricity that has abundant wind + battery storage and is building two large and modern Combined-Cycle gas plants already. 4/10

The proposed plant would be grid connected In North Dakota, costing $2.4 billion to build and potentially operating for 30-40 years. 3/10

The laws of thermodynamics mean $BW's 1980s gas steam tech (Rankine Cycle boiler plant) burns 40% more gas and emits 40-50% more CO2 to deliver the same power as modern Combined-Cycle gas plants. 2/10

Why is a 160-year-old boiler maker Babcock & Wilcox proposing to build a high-cost, high-emissions, 1980s style power plant for data centres? Sunlight Partners is short shares of $BW; See our report and disclosures here sunlight.partners/disclaimer-bw. 1/10

In only 3 short years, the greentransition has jumped from #5 to #2 in top risks for C-suite executives surveyed by RepRisk/OxfordEconomics. Greenwashing and environmental impact have also risen up the ranks of concern. Forensic environmental research can ensure these risks aren't hidden.

This short note is the first in a series setting out our macro-view, written by our advisor, Professor Riccardo Rebonato — former Global Head of Market Risk and Quantiative Analytics at RBS and now Professor of Finance at EDHEC Business School. Full note below. www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8t7bg...

"They’ll be short sellers with a bigger purpose – exposing frauds, shonks and spruikers... Their focus on environmental capital is unique in the world of hedge funds and short attacks." Our founders profiled in the Financial Review www.afr.com/chanticleer/...