Dr Tamitha Skov

@tamithaskov.bsky.social

Space Weather Physicist. Forecasting aurora, GPS, HF radio & radiation issues during solar storms. On TV: HISTORY, Weather Channel, PopSci, NASA TV, Arte TV, Crave TV, MIT Technology Review and more.

The solar storm has hit! See the vertical blue line in the plot. It comes with a precursor ramp up due to fast solar wind pushing the storm from behind. It's also slower than expected so we could have an "outsized" magnetic field response relative to the aurora show. It may be more bark than bite.

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An extremely slow-moving solar storm is passing over Earth today and Ive been waiting to see if it might become newsworthy. In the last hour or so AE has begun to hover around ~1000 nT and stay there. In a general sense, this means aurora might finally build enough to dip down into mid-latitudes!

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Region 4492 just fired an M1.9-flare, but the real story is the very HARD spectrum radiation storm building now. It is strongly penetrating at the flight levels of airlines and low Earth orbit (LEO). We are at an S1-level radiation storm alert now. High risk passengers take this into consideration.

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Great news! Aurora viewing chances just skyrocketed! Views possible even deep into mid-latitudes tonight thanks to a sharp flip in the magnetic orientation of the latest solar storm. Aurora chasers, if current conditions are sustained we could easily reach G3 storm levels over the next few hours.

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Machine-Gun Sun! 5 storms are on their way to Earth--3 of them offer good chances for aurora views. NOAA and NASA model predictions do not show all the storms yet, but the first should hit before noon July 3 UTC. Expect G2+ level conditions, if the orientation of the storms are conducive for aurora.

Between the X-class flare and a slow solar storm hit, there's a lot of radio signal degradation today. An R3-level radio blackout of HF/ VHF (see the "bull's-eye" color pattern on the map) on Earth's dayside and an increase in blue-purple turbulent zones affecting GPS. Stay vigilant radio operators!

Our Sun does more than sizzle: Region 4479 just fired an X1.1-flare and big solar storm while in the Earth-Strike Zone! Fast wind from a coronal hole south of the source region could deflect the structure northward, but we could catch some of it. Waiting for coronagraphs to inform model runs now.

Finally, after flirting with the aurora for nearly 24 hours, we are finally getting some strong substorm indications. This is good news. The fast wind combined with a flanking solar storm blow should give us a short-lived G1 storm (I hope). Aurora chasers stay vigilant over the next 24 hours.

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Our Sun wakes! Region 4473 fires an M6.9-flare with an R2 Radio Blackout that is calming slowly. Radio operators on the sunlit side of Earth expect HF/VHF comms issues over the next hour. Aviators in the northern hemisphere, stay vigilant for GPS issues especially where the Sun is low in the sky.

Early estimates of midday to late June 13 look to be spot on, at least with the NOAA/SWPC prediction. Here is their latest model run that captures the two eastward travelling solar storms. As for the south-westward filament launch, I am not so ready to dismiss that particular storm Expect G1-levels!

Yet another chance! Despite the most recent solar storm fizzle, 3 partially Earth directed solar storms launched in the last 24 hours and are on their way to Earth. All of these storms have a chance of at least grazing Earth, with impact starting likely mid to late day June 13. More analysis coming!

The NASA and NOAA model prediction runs show two possibilities: a fast, near direct hit (early June 8) and a slower, near flanking blow (mid-day June 8). It all depends upon how the coming storm interacts with the solar wind on its way to Earth. Fast solar wind might deflect the storm towards us.

Just when everyone thinks the recent solar storm fizzles were all we were going to have this week, WHAM! Region 4461 fires a massive blast and launches a fast solar storm towards Earth. Aurora photographers get ready for arrival June 8, as this storm could easily outperform the others we just had!

This first solar storm arrival shows northward magnetic field (thanks @HaloCME), which means aurora remains at high latitudes for now. But ions upstream of Earth indicate a shock is coming, which means another storm approaches. New Zealand, Tasmania, & Australia stay vigilant. Aurora may build soon!

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Direct Hit! The solar storm launched during the M9.3-flare is indeed Earth-directed! NASA's solar storm prediction shows this second storm arrivaing late June 4. However, a small storm will precede this so expect some impact starting around mid-day June 4 with the stronger storm close behind!

Region 4455 strikes again! M9.3-flare (nearly an X-flare) with a high R2-level radio blackout now! Expect degraded radio communications over next hour, especially Asian Pacific, India, Asia, East Africa, Alaska & Hawaii (colored areas in map). X-flare risk remains elevated over the next 72 hours.

Our Sun wakes up! In the last 6 hours, our Sun has launched 3 solar storms with Region 4455 firing one straight at Earth now. Waiting for more data to come in, but this could finally give aurora photographers at mid-latitudes something to celebrate! Arrival possible by late June 4 or early June 5.

On the Sun's farside old Region 4429 has been growing like gangbusters!. Not only that, another sunspot cluster has emerged nearby causing big instability. In the past 2 days it's fired 4 X-class flares & 13 M-class flares in Solar Orbiter's view. This region will rotate into view in about 6 days.