Russia - the war is coming home to Russians

And it’s only going to get worse, much worse

open.substack.com

NATO summit - all hail to Trump

One thing is certain - the NATO summit this week will be a Trump love fest from European NATO nations, and led by Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General and celebrated Trump whisperer.

timothyash.substack.com

Economic doomsday scenario facing Europe if it meets Trump’s defense demands - Türkiye Today

Higher military budgets alone will not solve Europe's security challenges unless governments rethink how they prepare for modern warfare

turkiyetoday.com

Putin is completely fucked

Excuse my French

open.substack.com

South Africa - BEE is stalling investment

A wholesale rethink is needed to kick start investment

timothyash.substack.com

Turkiye - a foreign perspective

I frequently get asked to provide big picture takes on my Türkiye view, and I tend to find a Q&A format the best way to summarise these.

open.substack.com

Ukraine creates multiple risk points now for Putin

And that’s precisely the point

open.substack.com

What's Next For the Iran Deal?

The Business · Episode

open.spotify.com

Europe needs to learn from Turkiye and Ukraine

As it current defence is not fit for purpose

open.substack.com

Путін нарешті готовий до миру? Ось сім причин, чому я так вважаю

Російські економісти і радники Путіна дедалі наполегливіше доносять до нього необхідність пошуку мирного врегулювання

nv.ua

Ukraine - recovery and reconstruction

Europe gives good conference

open.substack.com

Putin might finally need to find peace

For the first time in the 4.5 years of the war, it feels as if Putin might actually be willing to talk seriously about a peace in Ukraine.

timothyash.substack.com

Bigger geopolitical take outs from Iran war

Trump’s war on Iran increasingly looks set to end in the U.S.

open.substack.com

Could UAE move to de-peg early?

Periods of uncertainty in terms of the oil price outlook typically bring debate about the benefits of Gulf states depegging from the U.S.

open.substack.com

Withdrawing Troops from Germany: Threat or Truth?

Timothy Ash, associate fellow with Chatham House, joins Aine to discuss the US Defence Department's plans to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, following a clash between President Donald Trump and Ge...

rte.ie

Global Energy SHOCK Accelerating as Ground War in Iran Looks Likely!

YouTube video by Silicon Curtain

youtu.be

Simsek is a keeper, von der Leyen needs to read the memo - Türkiye Today

Harsh criticism of ongoing disinflation program misses the bigger picture, given clear gains already delivered in inflation, overall fiscal stability

turkiyetoday.com

Putin left with no 'way forward' over Ukraine despite sanctions reprieve | Tim Ash

YouTube video by Frontline

youtu.be

Gulf War III: Detail is not Trump’s strength

I spent the last few days at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF) in Türkiye, where most conversations predictably ended up focusing on the war in Iran, and the wider Middle East, Lebanon and Gaza includ...

timothyash.substack.com

New found confidence in Ukraine

To defend itself, and others

open.substack.com

“Daddy” killed NATO

We all need to just move on

open.substack.com

The Iran war has been an economic gift for Putin

Higher energy prices and the US decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil have given Moscow a windfall that could help to sustain its war in Ukraine.

chathamhouse.org

Oil Prices, Sanctions, and War: What the US–Iran Conflict Means for Ukraine

YouTube video by KI Insights

youtu.be

Hungary - can Orban afford to lose elections?

What is he willing to do to stay in power?

open.substack.com

Hungarian elections as a read out to US midterms?

For me the two most important elections globally this year will be midterms in the US in November, and elections in Hungary on April 12.

timothyash.substack.com

Lessons from UKR-RU peace talks for US-Iran

Ragip Soylu had a great piece in Middle East Eye today where he compares Trump’s hard core fifteen point peace plan list to how Moscow has negotiated hard ball in Russia - Ukraine talks, ultimately se...

open.substack.com

Trump & Iran: it takes two to TACO

Trump seems to have realised that in starting the war with Iran, he has bitten off more than he can chew.

open.substack.com

Gulf War III - lessons for Ukraine

Find the choke point

timothyash.substack.com

How will the war in Iran affect Ukraine?

Assessing the geopolitical, military and economic spillover effects of the Iran conflict on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

chathamhouse.org

Iran war has given Ze a Royal Flush

What is now pretty clear is that we are seeing a battle for endurance and supply chains in ballistic missile, drones and anti missile and anti drone space as this war in Iran plays out.

timothyash.substack.com