Sai Krishna

@thechaoticneuron.bsky.social

I do statistics ๐Ÿ“ˆ, writing โœ๏ธ and acting ๐ŸŽญ - in no certain order Here to become wiser with every post. https://d-saikrishna.github.io/

When I write stories, I ensure that I have the climax first with all its payoffs ๐Ÿ˜

Matt Thompson@matt-thompson.bsky.social ยท 2y ago

I have started #writing backwards for my #PhD papers, and I have noticed a clear improvement in my sentence structure, grammar, and flow. I never thought about starting with the #conclusion, but now that I have, I am not going back โ€” only backwards! I highly recommend doi.org/10.1007/s429.... ๐Ÿงช

๐–๐ก๐ž๐ง ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐›๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ญ๐ก? 1. Brush twice a day โ€” Morning and Night after dinner. 2. Morning, itโ€™s better to ๐›๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก ๐š๐Ÿ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐›๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ค๐Ÿ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ. If you find it scandalous, read this blog! medium.com/@saikrishna_... #rstats #Stats #StatSky ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ

When to brush your teeth? A good ANOVA study!

I found this paper which did a simple ANOVA study to find out when should one brush their teeth!

medium.com

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Interesting argument on lack of democratic accountability ๐Ÿ›๏ธ osf.io/preprints/os... 1. Itโ€™s not the lack of awareness. But political partisanship is an obstacle to accountability. 2. Lack of social capital. Public support to policies that preserve public goods reduces if there is personal cost

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If I ask you to forecast pollution in Delhi on some random day, you'd say a number X If I further ask you to forecast on a Winter Day, you'd top up X with some y This is Bayes theorem running in your head. This blog attempts to quantify it medium.com/@saikrishna_... #rstats #stats ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ

Bayesian probabilistic forecasts using categorical information | Part 1

In this blog, I will make Bayesian forecasts of Ozone concentrations.

medium.com

No answers :/ Anyways. Even without an uninformative prior, we provide a bounded prior in a Bernoulli trial. P(p) = 1 (when 0<=p<=1) P(p)=0 (otherwise) So the bayesian estimates are informed of this bounded nature of p. The MLE doesnโ€™t consider that. Hence the difference. #rstats #stats ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ

Sai Krishna@thechaoticneuron.bsky.social ยท 2y ago

Quiz time! Why is the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) of probability of success (p) in a Bernoulli trial not equal to the Bayesian Estimate? p_mle = r/n p_bayesian = (r+1)/(n+2) (Assuming uninformative prior) r = number of successes n = number of trials #rstats #stats ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ

Quiz time! Why is the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) of probability of success (p) in a Bernoulli trial not equal to the Bayesian Estimate? p_mle = r/n p_bayesian = (r+1)/(n+2) (Assuming uninformative prior) r = number of successes n = number of trials #rstats #stats ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ

So if x^2 is the confounder, adding x to the model may not completely remove the Omitted Variable Bias ๐Ÿ˜ฌ๐Ÿ˜ฌ๐Ÿ˜ฌ Seems obvious now. But wow, thatโ€™s an interesting thing! Makes causal inference more complex

AAndrew Gelman et al.@statmodeling.bsky.social ยท 2y ago

Bias remaining after adjusting for pre-treatment variables. Also the challenges of learning through experimentation. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...

๐–๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง? It impinges on a thinking mind and makes it change its opinion. How should this change be affected? ๐๐€๐˜๐„๐’ ๐“๐‡๐„๐Ž๐‘๐„๐Œ. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ก๐จ๐จ๐ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐›๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐๐š๐ญ๐š ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง - an extract from an autobiographical essay of statistician Debabrata Basu #stats #rstats ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ