Dan Falkenheim

@thefalkon.bsky.social

Fact Checker and super googler at Sports Illustrated | mainly WNBA & women's hoops | Currently working on MS in Analytics @ Georgia Tech | Most of the time thinking about LOTR, sci-fi and film

A “kill” occurs when the defense prevents the offense from scoring on three straight possessions. College programs have tracked kills for well over a decade, so let's do the same for the WNBA. Here are the league's leaders in kills per 100 defensive possessions:

A table showing how each team ranks by stop and kill rate. The Valkyries generate more kills than any team in the league.

L.A. short-circuited a potential rebuild by trading for Kelsey Plum ahead of the 2025 season, and now it's back to where it began. For @sportsillustrated.bsky.social, I chronicled how the Sparks reached this point and what the future looks like from here: www.si.com/wnba/with-ke...

With Kelsey Plum Traded to Mercury, Sparks Have to Start Over Yet Again

Los Angeles short-circuited a potential rebuild by trading for Plum ahead of the 2025 season, and now it's back to where it began.

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DiJonai Carrington says she will be a game day decision for the foreseeable future. Could make her debut for the Sky as early as tomorrow’s game against Connecticut.

Who has been the WNBA’s most clutch player this year? To answer that, I built and tested a win probability model, then measured how much each player shifts their team’s odds of winning late in close games. Sabrina Ionescu comes out on top. Here’s what goes into the numbers 👇

A table showing the top 10 WNBA players by Win Probability Added (WPA) per 5 clutch minutes. (Minimum 25 clutch minutes played.) Clutch time uses the WNBA's definition and occurs during the final five minutes of a game when the score is within five points. WPA includes shot attempts, free throws, turnovers, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, fouls drawn and fouls committed.

"Our ancestors created it for the simple reason that anything else would have been too easy for them; in their megalomania they thought to make the very sand beneath their feet intelligent. Quite pointless, for there is absolutely no way to improve on perfection.“ — Stanislaw Lem, The Cyberiad

With the WNBA season past its halfway mark (yes, you read that right!), here's how each team ranks in offensive and defensive efficiency in different play contexts: 🏀 Lynx, Aces, Fever and Wings are the top four half-court offenses 🔒 The Valkyries now have the top half-court defense in the league.

A table showing WNBA team offensive efficiency across different play contexts. Half court is defined as play that occurs once the opponent’s defense is set (or organized) following a change in possession; transition is defined as a play that occurs before the opponent has set its half-court defense following a change in possession; scramble is defined as a play that occurs following an offensive rebound, before the offense and the defense reset. Scramble plays don’t include all second-chance opportunities, and do include plays like quick kickout threes.Bild

Super fun article by @thefalkon.bsky.social about transition offense and defense in the WNBA. We had a great conversation of how our staff at Indy defined transition when I was there which is awesome to see incorporated. Dan’s been publishing great WNBA analysis; give it a look!

Dan Falkenheim@thefalkon.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Cleaning the Glass splits plays into half-court, transition and putback contexts. Those same easy-to-understand numbers haven't been publicly available in the same way for the WNBA. So, let's fix that. Introducing Cleaning the Glass-style contextual stats for the WNBA!

A table showing the each WNBA team's offensive efficiency in half-court, scramble and transition contexts. The Lynx are the top half-court team (1.00 points per play), the Aces are the top scramble/putback team (1.46 points per play), and the Tempo and Dream are tied as the top transition teams (1.17 points per play). Garbage time and heaves are filtered out.

Cleaning the Glass splits plays into half-court, transition and putback contexts. Those same easy-to-understand numbers haven't been publicly available in the same way for the WNBA. So, let's fix that. Introducing Cleaning the Glass-style contextual stats for the WNBA!

A table showing the each WNBA team's offensive efficiency in half-court, scramble and transition contexts. The Lynx are the top half-court team (1.00 points per play), the Aces are the top scramble/putback team (1.46 points per play), and the Tempo and Dream are tied as the top transition teams (1.17 points per play). Garbage time and heaves are filtered out.

What are the least and most efficient shooting locations in the WNBA? Here is every 3×3 shooting zone for 2025. Each square is colored based on its points per true shot, which is the average points scored for every shot attempt (makes, misses and shooting fouls) from that spot.

A heatmap plotted on a WNBA court showing the most efficient shot locations during the 2025 season. Each plotted square is a 3x3 foot square that contains a minimum of 75 shots, and it's colored by its relative efficiency. Squares closest to the rim are the most efficient shot locations, followed by those close to the three-point line and shots ~4-6 feet from the hoop.

Getting very into the weeds here: Home vs. away rim attempt rates aren't a clean counterfactual, but the splits might (?) be a rough signal of venue-level effects on how shot locations get encoded. Most teams are within ~5%. Valkyries and Aces are definitely beyond that.

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Leïla Lacan returns and immediately shows why she's one of the WNBA's top rising point guards. Her impact is so apparent on both ends of the floor. With the way Aneesah Morrow has started the season—and BG + Olivia Nelson-Ododa back in the fold—the Sun can be pesky.

Say goodbye to the two-hour WNBA game? On average, it's taken 128.2 minutes to get from the opening tip to the final buzzer in 2026. It's never taken longer to complete a game during the first four weeks of the season. More fouls ➡️ Longer, choppier games

A line plot showing season year on the x-axis and average elapsed minutes from opening tip to final buzzer on the y-axis. Average elapsed game time has grown to 128.2 minutes in 2026, which is the longest it's ever taken to complete games in the first 30 days of a season. The graph also shows that average elapsed game time crept past two hours in 2023 with the introduction of the coach's challenge.

Can a WNBA-tailored RAPM model provide similar predictive power compared with its NBA counterpart? If so, how should it be built? The answer to the first is yes. Following Joe Sill's methodology, I built and tested a WNBA version of RAPM. Here's what I found.

A chart showing the top 10 and bottom 10 WNBA players by RAPM in 2025. RAPM is not a definitive measure of player value or skill. It is best seen as a lineup-adjusted estimate of player impact, subject to noise.

The top five includes A'ja Wilson, Naz Hillmon, Skylar Diggins, Breanna Stewart and Leila Lacan. The bottom five includes Diamond Miller, Kiah Stokes, Alysha Clark, Julie Vanloo and Jacy Sheldon.

In 46 days, the WNBA ratified a CBA, held an expansion draft, opened free agency, held a rookie draft, started training camps, played preseason games, and will now, finally, begin the 2026 season We broke down each WNBA team and how they changed ahead of the 2026 season: www.si.com/wnba/everyth...

Everything to Know About Each WNBA Team Ahead of the 2026 Season

After a whirlwind offseason that was condensed into just a few weeks, it was hard to keep track of everything that happened. Here’s a five-minute guide to every

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at the dollar amount other players have signed for, this may be the best value signing of the offseason so far. Natasha Mack is a better/more important player than what simple box score numbers would indicate.

Richard Cohen@richardcohen.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Source confirms to me and @herhoopstats.com that Natasha Mack re-signed with the Phoenix Mercury for two-years, unprotected, $303,600/288,600. That's a little bump for 2026 to reward her, then the expected minimum next year (although again her actual cash would be higher via the new rule). #WNBA

wnba offseason grades are up after the draft and the initial wave of free agency! some grades are tricky. the storm did really well in the draft but endured a massive exodus of talent. sun had a good draft, too, but the vision is long-term. www.si.com/wnba/wnba-of...

WNBA Offseason Grades: How Each Team Fares After 2026 Draft, Early Free Agency

It’s been a whirlwind week in the league, with a bunch of new-look rosters. Let’s assess how each front office has done so far.

si.com

i couldn't come close to beating @thefalkon.bsky.social this year but still finished with a respectable 🥈 in the kaggle march madness competition! 144th out of 3,483 teams this year with no gambling involved

A screenshot of a kaggle.com leaderboard, showing John's as the 144th ranked submission
John Edwards@johnbedwards.io · 5mo ago

my march madness projections for 2026 are (finally) up! johnbedwards.io/blog/march_m... while I didn't have the chance to update my methodology much from 2025, everything from last year worked pretty well. here's who i have as the highest probability teams for winning the men's tournament:

A table showing the probabilities of the top teams to win the men's ncaa basketball championships.

predictions of integrity? juuuuust missed out on the top eight, but I'm very happy with the score my models acheived. (No gambling or hand-modifying of predictions) congrats to everyone else!

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"The Sky are known as a cheap franchise because Alter is a cheap owner. This season will be the first in which players don’t share locker room space with anyone who can afford the $49 monthly membership at Sachs Recreation Center" great column by Julia that gets into the rift in Chicago:

Julia Poe@juliapoe.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Institutional failure sent Angel Reese out of Chicago. Sky owner Michael Alter must break the cycle — or sell the team.

With the Unrivaled 1-on-1 Tournament starting today, I broke down the best storylines, the top scorers heading in, what's changed since last year and more for @sportsillustrated.bsky.social: (there's a table ranking the top 10 players by points per possession, too!) www.si.com/wnba/everyth...

Everything to Know About Unrivaled’s 1-on-1 Tournament

Before the action gets underway, find out the top storylines, what’s at stake and how to watch Unrivaled’s popular three-day tournament.

si.com