No surprises house prices down in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide & Canberra; puny 0.1% increases in Perth and Hobart & rises in Darwin. Rising unemployment is the main driver of the house price falls, aided by lower demand & rising supply www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn1D...
House prices drop 0.7% in July - more to come
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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More great news on housing: The supply side is responding nicely to the policy settings put in place that are designed to boost dwelling supply. The number of new dwelling building approvals (trend) is up a tubthumping 39% since the Feb 2024. www.youtube.com/watch?v=QS8g...
More great news on housing: This time it is building approvals rising strongly
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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SQM data show asking prices for dwellings falling in all cities other than Darwin, while asking rents are also down. Housing is poised to provide a disinflation impetus to the economy with wealth destruction & a topping out in rental growth both set to weaken. www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2B9...
Housing: Asking prices and asking rents both continuing to fall
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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The outlook for household spending is flat to down. There are 4 sources of money to support household spending: Income Savings Borrowings Wealth At the moment, the balance of these items is flat to down suggesting a soggy period ahead for household spending growth www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1Z9...
The outlook for household spending is obviously flat to down
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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A stocktake the Australian economy is favourable. Economic growth is slowing helping to get inflation lower. The RBA is meeting the full employment objective - good. Inflation is too high but is topping out. Biz investment is strong which will add to productivity www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhOf...
Economic stocktake - things are panning out in a good way, mostly
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Were those labour force numbers super strong or just in the groove? The strong side was a 76,000 increase in employment. BUT hours worked only rose 0.2%, the underemployment rate rose 0.2 ppts & the ABS note the unemployment rate to 2 dec points rose 0.1ppts to 4.4% www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU_R...
Huh? Were those labour force numbers super strong or just in the groove?
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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My latest for Forbes. Opinion: Australia’s march towards $1 trillion in gross debt has prompted plenty of hand-wringing, but a closer look tells a far less alarming story. www.forbes.com.au/news/innovat...
Does Australia have a debt problem? Not if you look closely at the figures
Australia’s gross debt is nearing $1 trillion, but global comparisons paint a far less alarming picture, argues Stephen Koukoulas
forbes.com.au
SQM Research publish weekly data on 'asking rents' & there are clear signs that asking rents are flat to down. This is great news for rental affordability & good news for inflation. It is also a guide to the slack in the housing market. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZreJ...
Asking rents are starting to fall - SQM data are suggesting that policy is working
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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A rise in the weekly Roy Morgan ANZ consumer confidence measure, which is building on earlier increases. Consumer confidence has risen a hefty 18% since the budget. While the doomsayers & vested interest groups remain noisy, the bulk of the community are less worried. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYQL...
Consumer confidence is up again - up 18% since the 12 May Budget
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Facts. Since the budget, there has been a solid pick up in confidence in the Australian economy. Suffice to say, the bleating of a few about how the budget measures will ruin the economy are hot air and not reflected in the way Australians see the economy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC2Z...
Consumer and business confidence have risen since the budget
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Slightly encouraging news - consumer sentiment up; business confidence up; rental vacancy rates up. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuG5...
Slightly encouraging news - consumer sentiment up; business confidence up; rental vacancy rates up
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Stop the whinging and whining about economic policy in Australia - the markets like what they see. Since the Budget the ASX is up, govt bond yields are down & the AUD has dropped one US cent against a strong US dollar. www.youtube.com/watch?v=paRz...
Stop the whinging and whining about economic policy is Australia - the markets like what they see
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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The CBA use their internal data to estimate wages growth & changes in employment. The latest data show wages growth flat at 3.1% - consistent with 2.5% inflation; while employment growth has fallen to its lowest point since the pandemic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C55...
Wages growth is soggy as employment stalls - insights from CBA's internal data
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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"Clap along if you know what happiness is to you Clap along if you feel like that's what you wanna do Because I'm happy" Pharrell Williams As the economy slows, it's encouraging to see how healthy the finances of the household sector are. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNE2...
I'm happy! Household finances are better than good
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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A couple of lower tier but sometimes important indicators. The MI inflation gauge should prices dropping 0.4% in June, bringing annual inflation to 3.9%, while job ads fell 0.2% in June after rising in May, but they remain consistent with softer labour market conds. www.youtube.com/watch?v=siSC...
Inflation down in June; job ads tick lower too
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Gross govt debt remains contained at $974.9b, tracking $7b below the estimate from the May 2026 budget & $195b below the level former Treasurer Frydenberg was aiming for in his last budget. This govt is doing a great job containing the rise in govt debt. www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyEq...
Gross government debt remains contained - the long task of budget repair continues
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Is the Aussie dollar overvalued? The export & trade data say "yes" There was a 7% slide in exports in May; the trade deficit in goods was $3b, a far cry from surpluses of $10b or more just a year or two ago Another bit of news that is a nail in the rate hike coffin. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYUo...
Is the Aussie dollar overvalued? The export & trade data say "yes"
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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"Boom, boom, boom Let's go back to my data centre" Paul Lekakis (apologies) Dwelling approvals edging down: are developers postponing or cancel construction of new projects for fear of having to sell at a loss? Non-residential building is going BOOM. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yod9...
Dwelling approvals start to trend lower while non-residential approvals BOOM to a new record high
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Strong income growth, softer house prices and a more favourable interest rate outlook suggest housing affordability is set to improve over the coming years. Good news! Housing is getting more and more affordable ~ @thekouk.bsky.social
Good news! Housing is getting more and more affordable
Strong income growth, softer house prices and a more favourable interest rate outlook suggest housing affordability is set to improve over the coming years.
buff.ly
Inflation is set to track lower Economic growth is slipping below trend freeing up capacity Commodity prices are falling meaning global inflation will be skewed lower The labour market is building slack with unemployment rate trending up & wages growth trending down www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOH-...
Inflation is set to track lower - the RBA has done more than enough hiking of interest rates
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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House prices are falling, a move that has seen many of the usual suspects crawl out from under their rocks to wildly speculate that prices this time around will drop 20, 25 or even 30%. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxB3...
What falling house prices mean for the economy & why a 'crash' of 10% or more is very unlikely
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
youtube.com
Employment up 40,000 in May after falling 40,000 in April; unemployment 4.4% from 4.5%; hours worked down 1.1% in May & up just 0.5% yy. Add to this a 2% fall in job vacanices. For household spending, it is petrol & holidays that drove a nice 1.3% rise in May. www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnMw...
The data trifecta - the labour market remains softish while household spending is flattish
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Inflation is still too high - tell me something I didn't know! Annual inflation in May eased to 4.0% while the trimmed mean ticked up to 3.6%. A period of weaker growth (which is with us it seems) will be needed to get inflation back to target. www.youtube.com/watch?v=H82e...
Inflation is still too high - tell me something I didn't know!
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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When do falling house prices become a worry? It's clear house prices are falling. At this stage, there's nothing to worry about, as the falls are from a high base, there is not a marked fall in household spending growth & bad debts for the banking sector remain low. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZh4...
When do falling house prices become a worry?
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Australia's population rose by 1.5% in 2025, which is the average of growth over the past 20 yrs. Net migration slowed to 301,000 people, which is down 46% from the Sep 2023 peak. Australians are having more babies than people a dying - natural increase was 111,000 www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDpq...
Population growth is back to normal
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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Get set for a productivity boom as the Capex 'peine forte et dure' ends. The fall in Capex from 2013 to 2022 crushed productivity, economic growth & incomes. The good news is the recovery in Capex since 2022. This will increase the speed limit for economic growth. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFev...
Getting set for a productivity recovery (boom even) as the 'peine forte et dure' ends
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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There has been a lot of hand-wringing in the media and from a small army of vested interest groups about the economic consequences of the Federal Budget. Was the Budget really unpopular? There are plenty of reasons to suggest ‘no’ ~ @thekouk.bsky.social
Was the Budget really unpopular? There are plenty of reasons to suggest ‘no’
There has been a lot of hand-wringing in the media and from a small army of vested interest groups about the economic consequences of the Federal Budget delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on 12 May.
buff.ly
RBA holds rates at an equal 14 yr high. Inflation still too high. Hawkish. Unemployment higher than forecast. Dovish. House prices are falling. Dovish. Oil prices are down, but we'll be watching developments. Dovish - maybe. All up, a simple decision. www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgCv...
RBA holds rates at an equal 14 year high. Inflation is too high, BUT unemployment is above forecast
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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The CBA Wage Insights data show annual wages growth tracking a tick above 3.0%. This is consistent with inflation running at 2.5%. Note also unemployment at a 4 1/2 year high & job ads are weak. Simple reasons why there should be no more interest rate hikes. www.youtube.com/watch?v=re57...
The softening labour market is a reason that will feed into interest rate cuts
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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No more RBA rate hikes? The markets are moving that way. Rising unemployment, a heightened risk of recession & the wealth effects from falling house prices are driving investors to take out RBA rate hikes & flirt with rate cuts in 2027. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlHg...
No more RBA rate hikes? The markets are moving that way
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
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