Theo Bertram

@theobertram.bsky.social

Director of the Social Market Foundation

The story of the local elections is likely to be Tory losses but if Reform were to win the Runcorn by-election on the same day then the story will be plague-on-both-your-houses, providing some cover for Badenoch. Conversely, if Labour manages to hold the seat then it makes her situation worse.

House of Commons@houseofcommons.parliament.uk · last yr.

Following the resignation of Mike Amesbury, @commonsspeaker.parliament.uk has issued a writ for a by-election to take place in the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, on a date yet to be announced.

Badenoch says: "families being forced to replace perfectly functioning cars, boilers and cookers with more expensive, less reliable versions of the same thing." No one is being forced to buy EVs or heat pumps. It's a common myth that she's deliberately reinforcing.

This was actually a fascinating panel despite the apparent disinterest Colm and I appear to be showing in the image

Colm Murphy@colmpm.bsky.social · last yr.

Enjoyed this @mileendinstitute.bsky.social webinar on the Starmer govt's economic policies with @samfr.bsky.social, @katealexandershaw.bsky.social, @theobertram.bsky.social and @morganj0nes.bsky.social. I was lucky to join such an expert panel. Great turnout online too! youtu.be/cTC6td1Ge9w?...

🧵HOW TO POWER AI - New from @SMFthinktank The UK ranks 4th gl;obally on AI talent & research but infrastructure is the Achilles heel of the UK’s AI ambitions, where we rank 17th. Two problems: planning & energy costs risk us losing our European crown. The problem in one chart:

Bild

Alex Jones - banned from Facebook, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, TikTok, Pinterest, Mailchimp, LinkedIn, Paypal - is allowed on X since Musk bought it. Below is an ad promoting Jones & his conspiracy theory that MRNA is causing 'COVID AIDS'. X directly profit from this misinfo.

Bild

Both sides living up to their stereotype today: BlueSky: growth is good, nimbys are bad and actually PR is really quite possible, probably inevitable X: growth growth is good, nimbys are bad and actually the death penalty is quite sensible, probably inevitable

🧵New analysis on public attitudes to net zero from @SMFthinktank First, the good news - Brits are much less likely to be climate change sceptics than the US. 'Drill, baby, drill' is not going to be a 'vibe shift' in the UK, as it was in the US.

Bild

We have had so much in recent weeks about suspected cover ups and the damage to trust attributed to various key institutions in the UK. Will those folks extend that criticism to The Sun, or does that institution get a free pass?

Why is the triple lock 'unsustainable' in the long run? Because it guarantees that we as a country pay out (pensions) more than we pay in (earnings) and eventually that becomes unaffordable for workers. The IFS modelled it here:

Bild

To this point by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social, is there a definitive list of politicians who have acknowledged (publicly, rather than just in private) that the triple lock can't last? Mel Stride: "does become unsustainable in the long-term" Torsten Bell: “not a sensible mechanism for pensions uprating”

Rachel Cunliffe@rmcunliffe.bsky.social · 2y ago

It would actually be really good to have a conversation about the sustainability of the triple lock. Yesterday Badenoch called for politicians to tell hard truths about things voters don’t want to hear, and pensions is the big one. Torsten Bell also knows this. Can we all just be grownups?

Reasons why Chancellors have left ✔️Mutiny ✔️Govt majority collapses ✔️They become PM Not reasons why Chancellors leave ❌Barbs in the Commons ❌Opinion polls 👇Thoughts by @theobertram.bsky.social on the speculation this week regarding Chancellor Reeves www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

No, Reeves is not hanging on by her fingertips - here's why - Social Market Foundation.

Theo Bertram takes a look back, reminding us that Chancellors have a history of enduring through the barbs, the polls, and bad headlines.

smf.co.uk

The start of this week was wild. Lots of people in Westminster got completely carried away with Tory wishful thinking that Rachel Reeves was about to be replaced. Why did this obviously daft idea get taken seriously? I've figured it out. I blame the noobs. 🧵

The US at home: preparing to ban TikTok because it's not US-owned & they fear foreign influence & suspect (unproven) links to China govt. The US abroad: Musk using his platform to destabilise other democracies & support far-right groups, while Zuck wants US to overturn other democracies laws.

1/ This goes beyond a criticism of the EU Digital Services Act (on the grounds that the US First Amendment should apply worldwide). It argues the EU should not apply its *competition* law to US tech companies on the EU market either. A rejection of the very idea of the EU regulation of its market.

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 2y ago

🚨 BREAKING: The U.S. government under incoming President Donald Trump should intervene to stop the EU from fining American tech companies for breaching antitrust rules and other violations, Meta chief exec Mark Zuckerberg said late Friday. Full story: trib.al/IWW9g57

This is bad. And - at least in Europe - seems doomed to fail as a strategy. Hard to see Europeans saying 'yeah, you're right, US big tech should just operate as you feel without complying with our laws'. Europe is not going to roll over. Especially while Musk uses his platform as a political weapon.

BildBild