Tim Dowse
@timdowse.bsky.social
Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.
👏 Many congratulations to Dr Aviva Guttmann from our Department of International Politics on winning a prestigious international prize for her book exploring the hidden history of intelligence cooperation during the Cold War. 🖱️ tinyurl.com/44bnk7p3 #ColdWar #IntelligenceHistory
Russia wants the world to forget who started the war. On 24 February 2022, Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was not preceded by any Ukrainian attack on Russian territory. The war was not ‘forced upon’ Russia. Russia chose to start it.
Odd. You'd think that a country invaded and still partly occupied by Russia wouldn't need foreign powers to foster a dislike of Russians.
Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social · yesterdayGeorgian Dream Prime Minister complains of “Russophobia in Georgia” and indicates that it’s a trait fostered at the command of foreign powers to harm Georgia. 1/2
A reminder that Russians may be slow on the uptake where conventional military tactics are concerned, but there's plenty of evidence that they are extremely agile on the disinformation front, and know just where the European pressure points are.
Alice Stollmeyer@stollmeyer.eurosky.social · 4d agoUkraine Foreign Affairs Minister: "We have detected intensive Russian propaganda campaign across Europe using pictures from Ceuta to sow destabilisation." Far-right from EU (& US!) falls with open eyes for hybrid threats from the weaponisation of migration, even fan the flames. #unity #solidarity
A strong sense of déjà vu about all this. Rinse, repeat… I wonder how the markets will respond tomorrow.
NBC News@nbcnews.com · 4d agoBREAKING: Trump pauses attacks on Iran, citing “perimeters of a deal” that would end Tehran’s “nuclear threat” and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
A brilliant time to reaffirm the unacceptability of claiming control over a major maritime trade route in contravention of international law. Someone has a sense of irony.
Sense Hofstede@sensehofstede.nl · 3w agoAP: 14 countries and EU reaffirm 2016 ruling invalidating China’s claims in South China Sea – ‘In addition to the U.S. and Britain, the other countries listed […] were the Philippines, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia.’
OK, this post doesn't seem to be aging very well at the moment. But let's see. How would a toll be enforced? What happens when the first Saudi/Emirati/Japanese/Chinese vessel tries to transit the strait without paying up? Is the US going to follow Iran's lead and open fire?
Tim Dowse@timdowse.bsky.social · 3w agoHmm. A fundamental of US maritime policy for the past century or more has been freedom of navigation. Doubt that will change because of a casual boast to Fox News. Otherwise, what price tolls in the South China Sea?
Hmm. A fundamental of US maritime policy for the past century or more has been freedom of navigation. Doubt that will change because of a casual boast to Fox News. Otherwise, what price tolls in the South China Sea?
Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · 3w agoTrump on Iran: “We are going to keep the strait. We will probably run it. “We will become the guardian of the strait, and when we do that, we will be reimbursed for it. “We guarded the strait for 50 years, and we never got paid for it. We guarded it for nothing, but now we will make money.”
Good. But no timeline announced. As with the Ukraine deal for Patriot production, that's quite an important detail.
Stars and Stripes@starsandstripes.bsky.social · 4w agoGermany has reached an agreement to acquire American-made Tomahawk missiles, a move that is expected to enhance NATO’s deterrence capabilities in Europe.
Nice of him to give a heads-up. I'm sure US allies in Bahrain and Kuwait will be overjoyed by the news.
Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 4w agoTrump on Iran: I will probably hit them hard again tonight.
Quite striking how the tone of media commentary around US/NATO has shifted over the past 18 months, from "Can we still rely on the US?" to "Here's how Europe might cope [or not] by itself".
Rather annoying to queue online for a couple of hours to buy tickets for the Bayeux Tapestry, get as far as paying for them, and then be told "an unexpected error has occurred". Then every further attempt to get on the website page times out! @britishmuseum.bsky.social
I know I'm a cracked record on this topic, but I still find it frustrating that the DIP (and the subsequent debate) is all about inputs. Having read it, I can't find anything that says what, once all the new kit etc is in place, we expect the armed forces will be able to deliver in terms of... 1/4
This will be quite something if it happens. The US has been keen to avoid boots on the ground in Lebanon ever since the unhappy experience of the Marines as part of the MNF in 1983 (I was posted in Israel at the time)
Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last mo.5/ CENTCOM will reportedly deploy ground forces to Israel and Lebanon to monitor compliance with the Trilateral Framework Agreement. CENTCOM’s on-the-ground presence would likely enable the United States to more quickly identify and address potential Israeli or Hezbollah ceasefire violations.
Is there any evidence that someone in (or connected to) Iran is playing this game as well?
Quantian@quantian.bsky.social · last mo.Futures market is about to open, you know what that means:
I'm sure that is a great comfort to all Americans suffering from a cost of living crisis.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoTrump on the new plane he's been gifted from Qatar: "This plane was transformed into a White House at a level of luxury that nobody has ever seen before"
Like so much Kremlin rhetoric for the last 15 years or so, this is a fascinating combination of self-pitying, paranoid conspiratorialism (it's all a giant plot against us!) and desperate attempts to show what a very great great power Russia is. 🧵
Anyway, greetings from Foyle’s @foylesforbooks.bsky.social in Charing Cross Road, where I just signed a pile of copies. I also signed some at Daunt’s Marleybone, and at the Waterstones on High Street Kensington today.
Excellent discussion this evening at the Mile End Institute with @helenebismarck.bsky.social and @robertsaunders.bsky.social. Yet more reading material as a result!
Pretty extraordinary if this is really the text (I note the White House head of comms has queried it). On the face of it, the US has agreed to remove its forces from the Gulf, which would end a presence that has been there continually since 1949. Can't believe they mean to do that.
Eliot Higgins@eliothiggins.bsky.social · 2mo agoHere's the Iran-US MoU, and it's pretty much a severe strategic defeat and capitulation for the US and a massive strategic and economic victory for Iran. Really an utter humiliation for the US thanks to Trump's naked incompetence. edition.cnn.com/2026/06/17/m...
Heading to London later this month to speak about my new co-edited book on crises in the Anglo-American alliance @csns-uk.bsky.social. Do join if you're in town. ⏰ 12pm on 23 June 📌 KCL's Dockrill Room on the Strand www.kcl.ac.uk/events/book-...
Book Launch: 'Transatlantic Storms in Anglo-American Relations: How the Alliance Weathers Crises' with Dr William D. James | King's College London
With President Trump's designs on Greenland and disputes over the Iran War, many argue that the UK-US alliance - often dubbed "the special relationship" - is close to breaking point
kcl.ac.uk
This hits the nail on the head. The key phrase for me is “We have to consider our role [and] our commitments” - ie what do we want the armed forces to actually do? Answering that question (which the SDR did not) leads on to a calculation of what is needed in… 1/2 open.substack.com/pub/joxleywr...
Deferral Nation
Britain's defence problem is a political will problem
open.substack.com
Rare to get a prediction confirmed so rapidly.
Tim Dowse@timdowse.bsky.social · 2mo agoI doubt it will happen. I see the President is already backtracking somewhat.
Hmm. I suspect US troops on the ground - particularly in limited numbers on an offshore island requiring constant resupply - would fulfil the fondest dreams of an IRGC hardline leader (and is there any other sort?)
No wonder the Governor of the Central Bank says she's feeling ill.
Meduza in English@meduza.io · 2mo agoOn June 10, Russia’s State Duma amended the Budget Code, giving the government the power to exceed federal spending caps and borrow beyond the limits set by the approved budget. Officials insist there’s no crisis. meduza.io/en/cards/rus...
My reaction exactly. Given what was known about this USG’s attitude to visitors from very many developing countries, it beggars belief that FIFA did not get this aspect pinned down long in advance, if only where players and officials are concerned. One hopes the IOC are taking careful notes.
Tariq Panja@tariqpanja.bsky.social · 2mo agoReports that a referee on FIFA’s World Cup list from Africa has been turned back after trying to enter the US for the tournament. Surely, this is basic stuff FIFA should have ironed out well before now. FIFA has been, as usual, contacted for comment.
#DDay82: In the years and months leading up to D Day, Allied planners had a steady stream of human intelligence from networks run by SIS/MI6 and it's allies, from beach defences and AA/radar sites to troop movements, adding to the all-source picture before Allied troops landed.
It's like clockwork. Every Friday there are optimistic noises from the White House and the oil price falls. Over the weekend things while markets are shut go into reverse and on Monday the oil price rises. Is anyone still looking at the futures trades?
Al Jazeera English@aljazeera.com · 2mo agoIran’s IRGC launches retaliatory strike after US attacks https://aje.news/lg87tf
With everything going on in the world, there's something rather comforting to be told that the most clicked link in Wednesday's New York Times newsletter was about the inventor of the Basque cheesecake.
