BBC finally explaining what that per cent means on the weather and that they’re frequentists www.instagram.com/reel/DZfGNFU...

BBC Weather on Instagram: "What does an 80% chance of rain really mean? 🤔 The BBC Weather app tells you “the percentage chance of precipitation” each day - but it's sometimes misunderstood. Here's...

50K likes, 1,117 comments - bbcweather on June 12, 2026: "What does an 80% chance of rain really mean? 🤔 The BBC Weather app tells you “the percentage chance of precipitation” each day - but it's so...

instagram.com

Research Fellow post at LSHTM. Come and work with Njeru Njagi, Matteo Quartagno, Wende Clarence Safari, Aurélien Belot, Bernard Rachet and myself on extending multiple imputation methods, in particular for analyses of electronic health records in cancer. jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

Job Opportunity at LSHTM: Research Fellow in Statistics

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is one of the world’s leading public health universities. Our mission is to improve health and health equity in the UK and worldwide; working i...

jobs.lshtm.ac.uk

Do you get wound up when you read stuff like “Warning: what you are about to read may change your mind about [x]”?

🤩 bingkaiwang.github.io/RCT_Bench-ma...

New post. People often invoke the idea of the estimands patients want. A laudable aim, but not straightforward to learn. Here are a couple of thoughts. ‘What estimands do patients care about? How can patients/researchers know? Is it a reasonable ask?’ open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...

What estimands do patients care about?

How can patients/researchers know? Is it a reasonable ask?

open.substack.com

New rule, results now go in supplementary material and methods in the main text

AND HERE I AM JUST GIVING IT OUT FOR FREE TO THE UNWASHED MASSES

This is a lot of people’s bugbear isn’t it

If anyone is interested in this but missed the talk, I'm afraid it wasn't recorded on this occasion, but the slides are now available on our webpage: ciig-seminar.github.io And Vanessa is more than happy to answer questions by email!

So excited to chat about Teaching Open Science and Reproducibility at MSMR this summer!

Tim Morris@timpmorris.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The program is up for the first 1st Interdisciplinary Symposium on Meta Science for Methods Research and it promises to be a BANGER! crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/

Check out the great program of the *1st Interdisciplinary Symposium on Meta Science for Methods Research* organized 31 August and 1 September in Zürich! Ton of cool speakers and meta-methodological reseach! crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/ (registration still open)

The program is up for the first 1st Interdisciplinary Symposium on Meta Science for Methods Research and it promises to be a BANGER! crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/

New post: Covariate adjustment and prediction-unbiasedness. Where I embarrass myself by asking smart people a dumb question (so you don’t have to) and get a useful answer. open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...

Covariate adjustment and prediction-unbiasedness

This is about covariate adjustment in RCTs (for a marginal estimand).

open.substack.com

JPAI expresses concern that AI will generate even more papers than he does. 😜

Title for this paper by @annemscheel.bsky.social made me snort. Outstanding. doi.org/10.1002/icd....

I’m at EuroCIM for the first time and a) lovely community with lots of familiar faces & nice informality b) the talks are just as technical as the abstracts imply A funny thing happened a few times today: speakers slipped into a reverie while pondering some dense notation on a slide.

A beginner’s guide to hot-desking etiquette: A) Pick desk by window B) Close blinds

New commentary in Statistics in Medicine: ‘A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)’ By me, Alex Ocampo, Jesper Madsen, Hege Michiels, Sanne Roels. 1/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)

This commentary offers perspectives on delivering “rigorous causal inference on meaningful estimands” that differ from the opinions recently shared by Fleming et al. We (1) depict a more robust pathw...

doi.org

For anyone who is doing statistical simulation work, I honestly cannot recommend @timpmorris.bsky.social's elegant 2019 manuscript on ADEMP framework enough. Outlining a structured approach to planning sim studies, w/in-depth examples+how to display Monte Carlo SEs. #statssky#statistics #academicsky

Note to self: I never ever want to present an RSS discussion paper. The experience of ‘discussions’ like these would drive me to the bottle.

A colleague just wrote “Small Ns” in a chat and it reminded me of the Rabois fallacy, and I want to remind you too so that you get to experience that wistful chuckle

✨ New open-access book✨ I’ve seen how powerful prediction models can be, but also how often they fall short. We wrote a book, covering not just development, but also when models are needed, and how to ensure real-world impact. www.maastrichtuniversitypress.nl/cpm

%%title%% %%sep%% Maastricht University Press

Open Access book by Luc Smits, Sander van Kuijk, and Laure Wynants: This open-access textbook offers a practical and comprehensive guide to developing, validating, and implementing clinical prediction...

maastrichtuniversitypress.nl

Great, you managed to get “INSPIRED” out of those bullets… now, what were the bullets again? Laboriously-constructed acronyms: - Good for trials because it’s just about having a shortcut name. - Bad where people need to remember the elements.

I simply refuse to believe this isn’t a Chris Morris sketch:

I assume lots of you are also receiving this. Somehow the entire message comes off as dripping with contempt. Hooold!

Stumbled across this podcast on clinical trials today and enjoyed it. I like skilled interviews talking to experts and this is that. cc @andygarrett.bsky.social @timpmorris.bsky.social open.spotify.com/show/1FfO4fr...

I love when someone quotes a good bit of ancient wisdom

My mother-in-law just sent “This rain 🌧️🤨” to the family whatsapp and within 60s almost everyone had replied with the current rain status in their locality. Take THAT everyone who says the weather isn’t a banger of a conversation starter.

Preprint!📢 We examined reporting- and open science practices in simulation studies in psychology with a questionnaire Importantly, we asked ‘why?’ Why were results omitted? Why weren’t MCSEs reported? Also: how do researchers evaluate simulation studies in their field? doi.org/10.31234/osf... 🧵

I was chatting to a friend about AI, academia, fraud, authenticity and creativity and for some reason it led me down a rabbit hole to the classic satirical TV news show, The Day Today; and the great bluffer of the reporting world, Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan. Bear with me on this one... 1/6