The MUF has stabilized after the CME glancing blow. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled (Kp 0–3) over the coming days. Solar activity continues to decline, and the risk of flares is low (M20% X01%). HF conditions range from fair to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Tom's Daily Space Weather Report
@tomdf5jl.bsky.social
Note: The HF propagation forecast is published on weekdays. About me: Citizen Scientist, Space Weather Observer, Radio Amateur (Callsign DF5JL), Member of DARC / RSGB / VERON / AOC / AFCEA / OSINT / FWBSt RHB
Geomagnetic activity will be mainly quiet to unsettled. Solar activity has been low over the past 24 hours, and no significant solar flares have been observed. But isolated M-class flares are still possible (M20% X01%). The MUF remains below the levels of previous days. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
The expected CME has arrived. This is likely to have a disruptive effect, particularly on the lower bands. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
A proton storm is currently disrupting our transpolar radio links. The storm is the result of a prolonged solar flare in sunspot region 4492. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Initially, geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3). By Sunday at the latest, conditions will shift to “active” to “stormy.” The flare risk is moderate (M35% X05%), and the solar flux has dropped slightly. We can expect fair to good DX condx. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Apart from any CMEs that may arrive, geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Flare activity is moderate (M1.9 30/1645 UT), further M-class flares are possible (M25% X01%). Contrary to expectations, the Solar Flux Index (SFI) has exceeded the 150 mark. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is currently very quiet. There is a possibility tonight that CMEs could strike Earth, leading to isolated periods of activity. The risk of flares is low (M25% X01%). As a result, DX conditions remain unchanged—fair to good. There is also Sporadic E. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity will be mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to stormy periods are possible if two CMEs that were detected graze the Earth tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. Otherwise, flare activity will be mostly low (M30% X01%). DX condx remain unchanged. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity will remain mostly quiet today. It could become more active as CME effects and fast coronal winds set in. There is a possibility of further isolated flares (M40% X10%). DX conditions are fair to good. Little change compared to yesterday. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity will be mostly quiet to unsettled; active to stormy periods are possible if the CME arrives. Flare activity is moderate (M45% X10%), and conditions are fair to good. Little change is expected. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Solar winds remain at elevated levels throughout the day. Geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet, with the occasional period of instability (Kp 1-3). Flare activity is low to moderate (M35% X05%). Note: CME-induced disturbances may occur Sunday night into Monday (Kp 4–5). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Fast solar wind continues to blow toward Earth. Geomagnetic activity remains unsettled to minor stormy (Kp 3–5). Flare activity remains low to moderate (M55%, X10%). Disrupted DX conditions will slowly recover by the weekend. The top DX bands are 30/20/17 m. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
On the evening of July 23 (UTC), a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm will occur as the Earth passes through a high-speed solar wind stream (650 km/s). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Earth is within the influence of a coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly unsettled to active (Kp 3–4), and the current moderate flare activity is expected to continue (M55% X10%). A 50 MHz opening between Japan and Finland was reported at 0454UT. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
The low geomagnetic activity of the past few days is expected to rise to an unsettled to active level, with the possibility of an isolated minor magnetic storm. Currently, flare activity is moderate (M1.9 at 2121 UT). Further M-class flares are expected (M55% X10%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Sunspot AR4493 is currently growing dramatically. Since yesterday, the area of this sunspot has more than tripled. “A spectacle,” so photographer Maximilian-Vlad Teodorescu of the Institute of Space Sciences in Romania. AR4493 is good for a X-class flare. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is largely calm. The overall probability of minor magnetic storms on Wednesday and Thursday is increasing due to a coronal hole. Flare activity is moderate (M3.4 20/2225 UTC AR4493). Further M-class flares are likely (M40% X05%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
The solar wind is moving steadily at a speed of 350 km/s. Geomagnetic activity is quiet (Kp 1–2), though periods of increased activity may occur. Solar activity is also low, as is the risk of solar flares (M15% X01%). DX conditions range from fair to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet, although there may be periods of increased activity at times. Solar activity is low; both the sunspot number and the solar flux have increased slightly. The risk of solar flares remains low (M15% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity will be quiet to unsettled (Kp 2–3), with occasional active phases possible. Flare activity remains low (M10% X01%). Thus, while conditions are undisturbed and suitable, the signals are generally weak. Sporadic E therefore remains our best hope. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is quiet to active; later, with the arrival of a CME, there is a possibility of minor magnetic storms. Flare activity is low (M10% X01%). With decreasing solar flux and fewer sunspots, DX conditions are likely to be moderate. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Yesterday, a CME just past Earth. The next one could hit Earth the next hours. Geomagnetic activity will be quiet to unsettled. But active to minor stormy phases are expected later in the day. Flare activity remains low (M25% X05%). DX conditions remain summer-like. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3). On the evening of July 13 or on July 14, geomagnetic activity may become active to stormy (Kp 4–5) if the CMEs arrive that occurred on July 10. Flare activity is moderate (M25%, X05%). HF conditions are fair to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is expected quiet to unsettled, with a possible CME glance Sunday that could produce active to stormy conditions. Flare risk is low. The MUF is showing a summer dip—so DX stations above 20m are becoming increasingly weaker with rising frequency. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
We are still under the influence of elevated solar wind speeds. Geomagnetic activity will be unsettled to active at first, but will subside as the day progresses. The risk of solar flares is low to moderate (M40% X10%), and the solar flux has continued to decline. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
An increase in solar wind speeds is expected today. As a result, geomagnetic activity will rise to unsettled to active (Kp 3–4), with stormy intervals possible at times. Solar activity has remained moderate over the past 24 hours. The solar flux has risen slightly. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Solar wind speeds are rising slightly. Geomagnetic activity will therefore increase, progressing from quiet to unsettled to active (Kp 3–4). Flare activity is low to moderate (M40% X10%). The solar flux continues to decline, meaning the upper bands are weakening. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
Geomagnetic activity is quiet (Kp 1–2), fast solar wind from a coronal hole sets in on July 9 (Kp 3–5). A moderate flare activity is expected (M75% X20%). However, a new large sunspot is rotating toward an Earth-facing position along the eastern edge (X1.3 @4 July). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr
The effects of the announced CME: increased solar wind speeds, unsettled to stormy geomagnetic activity. There have been around a dozen M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The MUF dropped to 10 MHz, we have disrupted DX conditions. Trend: a slow return to normal. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr