Callum Thomas

@topdowncharts.bsky.social

Head of Research & Founder at Topdown Charts (chart-driven macro insights for investors)

For those wishing for Rate Cuts... If the Fed cuts unnecessarily then stocks go up, but if they cut because things are unravelling in the economy then it won't help stocks at all. (also notice how the market tends to trade into the first cut)

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This chart tells you all you need to know about investing in Stocks vs Bonds. Observations: Bonds & stocks go up together most of the time. Stocks beat bonds most of the time. (but bonds beat stocks most of the time when stocks go down) from The Weekly #ChartStorm

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The AI boom (/bubble?) has triggered a surge in earnings expectations unlike anything we've ever seen before. This has helped EM equities outperform vs US and developed, but it's also starting to look a little too good to be true. And it's not the only interesting thing going on in earnings...

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Is this a test of financial literacy? ...or is it a matter of volatility? (or is it simply that most people hold real estate for the long-term by default, and hence get to actually see the benefits without getting spooked out by news headlines and daily market volatility)

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We've become accustomed to markets just trending and going up over time, but there are plenty of examples across history and geographies of markets that just range. This 25-year period of time in Japan was one for market timers and not long-term trend followers. (...albeit there are clear trends o

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If you missed the 10 Worst days in the market, your returns would be materially better than the index. So, should we therefore attempt to time the market? Most finfluencers only tell you about the red line, so what is the intellectually honest approach here?? from The Weekly ChartStorm

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Funny thing on this chart, Perspective matters... if you hold something that falls -50% it has to rise 100% to get you back to where it started. if something you don't hold falls -50% it will gain 100% if it just gets back to where it started. (there's a lesson in there)

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Space Stocks have crashed -50% since the 28th May peak. The past couple years this type of move was a buying opportunity... (𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘬𝘯𝘪𝘧𝘦-𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘺)

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on Consistent Fast Growth 🧐 in 2018 there were 1055 companies who reported sales growth of 10% or more… by 2023 only 35 of them were able to consistently grow sales by at least 10% year-after-year across that 6-year period. In other words, it’s easy to grow fast once, hard to grow fast consisten

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