I think the Texas AI audit is going to have an impact on semi demand.
Peter
@treadingwater1.bsky.social
Maine Retired... Interests: Science, Reading, Investing, Sailing, Love Baseball No DM
I bought the hyperscalers, MSFT, after EPS, the others GOOGL and META after getting knocked down and AMZN before EPS. Separate infrastructure from compute power. Companies can turn off spending on a dime. META's facility in Louisiana will be fastest and the lowest cost facility.
Operating Cashflow TTM of Hyperscalers in $BIL GOOGL 186 MSFT 183 AMZN 161 META 130 ORCL 32 Total 692 Source: Koyfin Now tell me again how ORCL competes in this game.
I love this: one moron talking to another moron.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5d agoBARTIROMO: Last time we spoke, you told me you were expecting 4% growth in the second half of the year. The number was way lower. How would you assess that? HASSETT: The reason why the number was 1.5% was because we imported so many capital goods because we're building factories so fast
$ORCL is a slow motion trainwreck
Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com · 5d ago‘As default risk rises, so lenders will demand higher interest rates before advancing more money. In 2008, this led to a vicious cycle and cut companies off from funding. Anyone burned by that experience would be alarmed by the current price of Oracle’s CDS.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
$SMH Will close red today. Thanks for buying the open and allowing me to sell my oversold bounce play.
It says AMZN EPS was $5.75 vs. $1.82 estimate. How is that possible?
Market Thoughts 5 Trump will be impeached by the House, but insufficient Senate votes will likely save him, unless there is a straw that breaks the camels back. However, he is finished, really as of now, by Iran. Many cabinet members will leave after November, who wants to go before D congress?
Market Thoughts 4 It's August, vacation time, and election cycle. The D's will take the house and maybe the Senate. Trump is now a lame duck, especially after labor day. Candidates will announce for 2028, right after November election, and if D's take house, Epstein files will come out un redacted.
Market Thoughts 3 The Iran war is not going away, Iran intends to torment Trump, probably through the end of his term. Oil prices will remain high, and supply will be constrained. The oil reserve in the US will be depleted, and gas prices will stay elevated or increase, damping consumer spending,
Market Thoughts As we exit July and go into August, a new environment is on the horizon. 1. The semi cycle has likely peaked, leverage going away, a fund blowup, AI model soups with no profit moats. Gowth will continue, but growth rates will slow. Debt levels and lease levels are excelerating.
For a real estate guy, he should have been smarter. Location, Location, Location.
Shoe@shoe.bsky.social · 6d agoPresident Toddler
Bubble economics is still alive and well, this will not be the last blowup.
George Pearkes@peark.es · 6d agoAn 8 employee hedge fund that was up hundreds of percent and used aggressive leverage is asking investors for more cash to meet margin calls. The tropes in this particular bull market couldn’t get any lazier. www.ft.com/content/2803...
They goosed all the beta AI trades into the open lets paint the tape for the month of July. $LRCX up a whopping 25%.
This war is going to broaden out and ensnare the whole middle east.
Al Jazeera English@aljazeera.com · 7d agoRiyadh seeks partners to safeguard shipping in Red Sea as strikes on energy tankers expand, pushing oil prices higher.
I think MSFT Capex plan is unclear. First you have leases, infrastructure, and then compute investment. How much is compute investment going up?
I am beginning to think that Open AI and Anthropic, while important, are just models and there are a bunch of them, and MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN will maintain their importance in the enterprise.
This guy will soon start talking about himself in the third person.
FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · last wk.Fed's Warsh: In the period ahead, we have important decisions to make.
