Dr. Levi Cowan

@tropicaltidbits.bsky.social

Owner/developer of https://tropicaltidbits.com. PhD in meteorology from FSU. Opinions are mine alone. Follow for expert, factual, no-hype hurricane analysis

🌀 There remains some risk of tropical development in the western Gulf this week. The disturbance that initially failed to develop and moved into #Mexico is currently inland, but will slowly migrate into south #Texas over the next couple of days as a weak cold front approaches from the north.

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Following up, we are seeing model consolidation toward less storm activity in the Gulf this week, w/ physics-based models backing off from earlier aggression. Remaining low risk is associated w/ the remnants of TS Cristina potentially crossing Central America into the Bay of Campeche this weekend

Dr. Levi Cowan@tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🧵(1/5) Some possibility of tropical activity in the Gulf exists beginning late next week. The Central American monsoon is becoming active as multiple equatorial waves (MJO, Kelvin, Rossby) overlap next week near 90W longitude.

🧵(1/5) Some possibility of tropical activity in the Gulf exists beginning late next week. The Central American monsoon is becoming active as multiple equatorial waves (MJO, Kelvin, Rossby) overlap next week near 90W longitude.

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Tropical Storm #Andrea has formed over the North Atlantic, the first of the Atlantic season. Andrea is already moving into cold waters and will be short-lived, expected to dissipate over the next 24 hours. Andrea is not a threat to any populated areas.

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The Eastern Pacific is getting going with their first Tropical Storm of the season, named #Alvin 🐿️ The NHC predicts a track northward towards northern Mexico, but fortunately, Alvin will hit some cold water on its way there, likely causing it to mostly dissipate prior to arrival.

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