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tzeddek32.bsky.social

@tzeddek32.bsky.social

Gay, Veteran, Democrat, Liberal, YIMBY, Internationalist, Michigander, aspiring Jew, Progressive Zionist, Wide Awake. Alt: Tzeddek32Alt #TeamPete #TeamPritzker #TeamOdeh #TeamKariv

9283 Posts6589 Follower 6950 Folgt

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 4h ago

In 2018, Abdul El-Sayed lost his primary for governor to the normie Midwestern Democrat Whitmer and Stevens flipped a red seat. It reflected how Democratic voters wanted a "return to normal." Now, they think "normal got us Trump." www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

Progressives leave primaries as victors - but its not the night they hoped for

Abdul El-Sayed pulled off a victory for the left thanks to Democratic voter frustration. But it was not on the level progressives wanted, Eric Garcia writes

independent.co.uk

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 4h ago

Today is good for progressives because they showed that a good chunk (albeit not the majority) of the Democratic electorate is willing to take a crack at a progressive candidate. But many Democratic voters weren't willing to risk losing what would likely be a safe seat. If AES wins, it raises clout.

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 4h ago

To say nothing of the latest leg of the stool: upper-class well-educated white people with degrees in the suburbs. We saw plenty of the latter vote for both Stevens and El-Sayed. Black voters (unsurprisingly) split by age and the young people in college towns broke for El-Sayed.

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 4h ago

An animating trait of Democrats this past year has been, yes, they hate Trump, but they are PISSED at their party leadership. Michigan is the perfect microcosm of the Democratic electorate. It has young people, older Black church ladies and union workers. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

Progressives leave primaries as victors - but its not the night they hoped for

Abdul El-Sayed pulled off a victory for the left thanks to Democratic voter frustration. But it was not on the level progressives wanted, Eric Garcia writes

independent.co.uk

WatchYourRepsTN&SC @watchyourrepssc.bsky.social · 3h ago

Roy Cooper said it and he’s right: we need Senators who actually remember young people exist. Rising rent, brutal job hunts, and half of Washington’s still stuck in 1995. We fix that by voting like hell in 90 days. #BlueWaveIn90Days

Secretary of Defense Rock @sodrock.bsky.social · 5h ago

Who knew ridiculously long deployments and demanding op tempos run a ship and crew into the ground!

Patrick Chovanec@prchovanec.bsky.social · 5h ago

Keeping people constantly deployed has a mounting cost. www.ms.now/news/conditi...

Jenny Cohn @jennycohn.bsky.social · 2h ago

2/ Link: www.aljazeera.com/opinions/202...

Latin America is becoming a laboratory for tech-supremacism

Trumpism, corporate deregulation and biometric surveillance are converging into a new model of control in the region.

aljazeera.com

Jenny Cohn @jennycohn.bsky.social · 2h ago

Heads up. Milei introduced his Thiel-aligned “Super RIGI bill” in an op-ed, “opening with “praise for the Dutch East India Company.” As noted by others, the Dutch East India Company was granted a “commercial monopoly, its own army, currency & legal system, & the power to declare war.” 7/31/26 … 1/

CECO
Latin America is becoming a laboratory for tech-supremacism
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Milei introduced the Super RIGI project in an op-ed for The Financial Times, opening with praise for the Dutch East India Company (VOC), a corporation that fused corporate and governmental power. It was granted a commercial monopoly, its own army, currency and legal system, and the power to declare war. It built its wealth on colonial exploitation and the enslavement of hundreds of thousands of people. In this sense, the Super RIGI is the legal framework for a foreign-flagged VOC to operate on Argentine soil.
Milei celebrates the VOC as the birthplace of limited liability, "the invention that allowed capitalism to develop its full potential", a supposed gift from the West to the world, upon which Western superiority rests.
Shortly before Thiel's arrival, Argentina's Ministry of Human Capital announced on social media the creation of a social information integration platform called the "Social Digital Twin" (Gemelo Digital Social), de-

David Roberts @volts.wtf · 4h ago

jesusfuckingchrist

Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson

A public report urges the CFTC to ban prediction market contracts on destructive wildfires, raising concerns over public safety and potential arson.

kptv.com

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social · 2h ago

Missouri voters just blocked a Republican-led effort to raise the bar for passing citizen-led constitutional amendments. Under current law, ballot measures require a simple majority for passage. Amendment 4 would have required ballot initiatives to win a majority in each congressional district.

#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 3h ago

This is not going to go away. It is not fringe. It is not even really all that radical. It's much closer to the facts than the mind numbing pablum about two states that every Democrat over the age of 900 uses to avoid saying anything of substance.

#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 3h ago

I mean this sincerely: I think pro Israel people really need to begin internalizing that this is not a fringe opinion anymore and in fact is very statistically likely to be the average view of any brown Democratic candidate for office or any candidate under the age of 50

Just now on @Morning_Joe:
@AbdulElSayed was asked by @WillieGeist whether his critique of Israel is about @netanyahu or Israel itself. He made it clear his problem is with Israel. Lots of references to
"apartheid" and "genocide" that
"pre-date" BiBi.
7:19 AM • 8/5/26 • 132K Views

Josh Gerstein @joshgerstein.bsky.social · 2h ago

JUST IN: Trump files emergency motion to try to block BBC from getting details about finances of his business empire in connection with $5-10 billion defamation suit he filed against the network www.politico.com/news/2026/08...

Trump seeks to shield his business finances from BBC in libel lawsuit

politico.com

#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 2h ago

Of course perhaps also it is that Mamdani is obviously even more left wing than El Sayed on Palestine.

#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 2h ago

Must admit that I don't really understand what it is about Mamdani that made Schumer deem him essentially persona non grata. (I do get that El Sayed is a *senatorial* candidate, so the stakes for Schumer are more direct).

Chuck Schumer endorses El-Sayed after win, knocks Rogers as 'Trump rubber stamp'

Schumer, who had backed Rep. Haley Stevens in race against El-Sayed, says Democrats are united by common purpose: 'putting a check on Donald Trump by defeating his Republican enablers and taking back ...

haaretz.com

Doug McVay @dougmcvay.bsky.social · yesterday

Gift link. "If the items are not replaced by November, the country may see at least 16,000 new cases of H.I.V. in 2027, double the typical number, according to an estimate by the Alliance for Public Health, a Ukrainian nonprofit that manages the supplies." www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/h...

Russian Strike Destroyed Millions of H.I.V. Prevention Supplies in Ukraine (Gift Article)

No medications were affected, but if new prevention items are not procured, aid groups fear a surge in new infections next year.

nytimes.com

Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 17h ago

Who is this “we”?

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 17h ago

Trump on Venezuela: "We're taking out hundreds of billions of dollars"

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6h ago

El-Sayed: "Mike, I'm gonna say it right now, I know you're gonna say no because you're a coward: Five debates, alright? ... By the time we're done, you are not gonna have safe quarter from people holding you accountable to what you've done for them here in Michigan. We will send you back to Florida"

Ebony Elizabeth Thomas @ebonyteach.blacksky.app · 2h ago

Oh, that's a great line! #MikeFromFlorida

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 6h ago

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

This is a scandal — an historic swindle perpetrated by the biggest companies on the planet — but because they’ve successfully hoodwinked investors, the media, and many analysts, they’re getting away with it. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

Yet as we speak, the market is ripping, because hyperscalers have swindled investors, the media, and even the analysts themselves. Article after article after article claims that AI bets have “paid off” because these companies are glazed any time they inflate their earnings using the compute spend of two unstable and unsustainable companies, in part because hyperscalers both refuse to and face no pressure to share their AI revenues, knowing that they’ll get credit as long as the topline numbers look good.

I want to be clear that the air is coming out of these companies, no matter how good these earnings may look.

Everybody is taking the growth of their existing businesses and two AI labs’ compute spend as proof that all this capex is paying off, even though there is now consistent proof that the direct opposite is happening, and that their businesses are becoming increasingly-dependent on that compute spend.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

The fact that the only demand for AI compute stems from OpenAI and Anthropic means that these companies cannot fail AND must grow to ridiculous heights. When they fail, hyperscalers will have to revise guidance, slash RPOs, and admit capex was wasted. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

However you feel about what I’m saying, these estimates also require OpenAI and Anthropic to keep growing at the rate necessary to keep up with expectations for Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.

The most important question is which part of the machine breaks first.

The wind cannot fall out of the sails OpenAI and Anthropic, as both of them have to keep pace to be able to pay for all this data center capacity, which would mean they would, across Amazon and Google alone, have to produce over $125 billion in 2027, which would require both the actual demand (from customers for inference and for training) to use that much compute and the means to pay for it (from venture capital and the hyperscalers themselves).

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

These analyst estimates also show that there’s very little demand for the AI products of the hyperscalers themselves - barely $10bn in FY2027 for Microsoft 365 Copilot, per Wells Fargo - giving them no hope of recouping their investment. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

When you look at these numbers, you see a brutal story of unproductive capex. Looking at Wells Fargo’s estimates, it doesn’t appear that Microsoft 365 Copilot is a meaningful business, hitting a meager estimated $3.859 billion for the entire fiscal year 2026 for a product that allegedly has 30 million paid seats, suggesting massive discounts and questionable value.

Wells Fargo estimates it’ll grow to an unremarkable $10 billion in annual revenue in FY2027 — barely more than OpenAI is estimated to spend in Q1FY2027.

Very Blunt Sidenote: if Microsoft is struggling to sell AI-powered software attached to the literally-most-used enterprise software in the world with a sales team of tens of thousands of people and tens of thousand more resellers, how do you think that the rest of the AI software world is going to do long term?

To be explicit: the demand for AI-powered software is not there, and neither is the demand for selling AI-powered add-ons to other software.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

This affirms what I’ve said again and again — there really isn’t an AI industry without Anthropic and OpenAI, as demonstrated by the fact that there’s very little AI revenue beyond these two labs. Without them, there's no justification for further capex. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

So, let’s go look at the non-Anthropic/OpenAI part of that Barclays note, with each column representing 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028, with the last three being estimates.

For some context, in the year 2025, Amazon spent $131.8 billion in capex, or roughly 32 times Barclays’ estimates for non-OpenAI/Anthropic revenue — a number that barely improves with the full total ($9.6 billion) to 14 times.

If Amazon has its druthers and invests $220 billion in total capex in 2026, the (pathetic) $8.5bn in non-OpenAI/Anthropic revenue will be roughly 26 times smaller, or 7 times smaller when you use the full $31.6 billion in projected AI revenue for 2026.

If your counterargument here is that “the gap is getting smaller each year,” you are a mark. $31.6 billion is $22.6 billion less than Amazon spent on capital expenditures in its last quarter, or roughly $18.4 billion less than it invested in OpenAI this year. Barclays’ estimates for 2028 have Amazon’s AI revenues — 75% of which are from OpenAI and Anthropic’s compute spend — at around $75 billion, four god damn years into the AI bubble.

Amazon will have, by 2028, likely sunk over $650 billion in capital expenditures into AI, all to earn (and this assumes OpenAI and Anthropic exist and can pay) a little over $171 billion in AI revenue, with the vast majority of it contingent on two entirely venture-backed startups.

Similarly, even if UBS’ estimates come true, Google will have spent roughly $408.5 billion (including consensus estimates of $120.5 billion for the rest of the year) in capital expenditures to create an AI business that makes about $80 billion a year, with most of that coming from either selling Anthropic’s compute or access to its models via Vertex.

Microsoft is in the same position. Wells Fargo’s estimates have its AI revenues for FY2026 (which just ended) at around $34.5 billion, in a year where it spent $115.9 billion in capex, with $41 billion of that in the last quarter, or roughly $6.5 billion more than its entire estimated AI revenues for the god damn fiscal year.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

Hyperscalers have sold the media and investors on the idea that $990bn in capex would create diverse AI demand. Instead they've destroyed their free cash flow to prop up unsustainable AI labs who can only pay when hyperscalers hand them the money to do so. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

This is an absolute fucking scandal.

The vast majority of Microsoft, Google and Amazon’s AI revenues and revenue growth in their representative cloud platforms are from Anthropic and OpenAI, and they are blatantly, unashamedly misleading investors by not disclosing that this is the case. We’re talking 73% of AWS’ AI revenues, 74% of Microsoft’s, and likely 70%+ of Google Cloud’s considering that just Anthropic and OpenAI’s AI spend is expected to be more than 48% of all cloud revenues.

What hyperscalers have actually done is demolish their free cash flow and purchased hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of GPUs, TPUs, and XPUs to support a customer base dominated by two customers that are now accounting for the vast majority of their revenue growth and quite literally cannot afford to pay their bills without a near-infinite flow of venture capital investments.

Based on these estimates, these analysts also don’t seem to believe that any other large customers are going to emerge, bringing into question both the rationale of their capital expenditures and those of basically anyone building any data center anywhere in the world.

This is the single-worst capital misallocation in the history of business. Every single story you’ve read about the “incredible growth” of these cloud platforms is an embarrassing misread of three companies that are misleading investors that will more than likely be forced in the next year or two to have to restate revenues, cut remaining performance obligations, and admit that they’ve drastically overbuilt capacity.

The counterargument to my warnings is always that “this is useful infrastructure that will be used in the future,” or that we’re in an OpenAI Bubble not an AI bubble (which, I argue, is basically the same thing), but when you remove Anthropic and OpenAI, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud go from exciting growth-engines to chernobyls of capital expenditure.

Without these two “startups,” AI revenues are catastrophically small — for example, Sandler estimates that Amazon Web Services will make a pathetic $8.5 billion in AI revenues in 2026, or roughly 25 times less than the $220 billion Amazon intends to spend this year. While Ju estimates that Google Vertex AI model platform (which is one of the main ways that large enterprises integrate Anthropic’s models) will pull in $28.3 billion in 2026, that’s still a little under $10 billion less than the $35.6 billion that Anthropic and OpenAI will spend on compute.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

According to analyst letters from UBS, Wells Fargo and Barclays, Anthropic and OpenAI make up 70% or more of Google, Microsoft and Amazon's AI revenues, which means that outside of these AI labs, there isn't demand for compute or AI software at scale. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

Per Ross Sandler of Barclays, Anthropic and OpenAI are estimated to make up 73% of all of Amazon’s AI revenues in both 2026 and 2027 and 75% of AI revenues in 2028, with Anthropic spending $14.1 billion in 2026, $25.3 billion in 2027, and $35.8 billion in 2028, and OpenAI spending $9 billion in 2026, $15 billion in 2027, and $20 billion in 2028.

Amazon plans to spend $220 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 and even more in 2027, and appears to be doing so almost-exclusively to provide compute for a company that had to raise $95 billion in funding in the space of six months, with $5 billion of that coming from Amazon itself.

Google is in a similar-position. Per Stephen Ju of UBS, “...Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta will account for 21%, 7% and 1% of 2026 Google Cloud revenues, respectively, and 44%, 5% and 1% of 2027 revenues,” or, put another way, 28% of all 2026 and more than 48% of all 2027 Google Cloud revenues are from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Ju also estimates Meta will make up a whopping 1% of Google Cloud revenues in each year, and does not mention a single other customer, which heavily-suggests that there aren’t really any large ones.

Based on Bloomberg Intelligence’s consensus estimates for Google Cloud’s revenues in 2026 ($105.9) and 2027 ($173.8), OpenAI and Anthropic represent $29.4 billion ($7.4bn/$22bn) in 2026 and $84.69 billion ($8.69bn/$76bn) in 2027. To be explicit here, this is all Google Cloud revenues. It is reasonable to believe that this represents at least 75% of Google’s AI revenue, if not more.

And based on a note from Michael Turrin of Wells Fargo from May 31 2026, things are just as bad for Microsoft, with 70% or more of its AI revenues coming from Anthropic and OpenAI. While Turrin “expects investments at software & models layers [to] pay off in meaningful adoption over time,” it’s difficult to argue that Microsoft has any meaningful AI strategy outside of OpenAI and Anthropic’s compute spend.

To make matters worse, based on Wells Fargo’s estimates, it appears that Microsoft 365’s AI revenues are barely — and I mean barely — beating the revenue share Microsoft gets from OpenAI’s sales.

Wells Fargo also includes a helpful cheat sheet of its estimates for AI contributions, estimating that even at the very end of FY2027 (which began on July 1 2026), OpenAI and Anthropic’s spend will represent a dramatic 74% of all AI revenues. Wells Fargo also estimates that the two AI labs represented 23% of Azure revenue in FY2026, growing to 35% in FY27.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

Hyperscalers have conned investors by not disclosing their AI revenue concentration, all to hide that revenue growth is increasingly coming from Anthropic and OpenAI, and that their infrastructure was near-entirely built to support two unprofitable AI labs. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

Every publication you read right now will tell you that AWS and Azure and Google Cloud are growing like wildfire as a result of the hundreds of billions of dollars they’ve invested in AI GPUs and data centers, when the truth is far simpler: their revenues are being buoyed by two unprofitable, unsustainable AI labs that cannot exist without being funneled tens of billions of dollars each year.

And a decent chunk of that money is coming from the hyperscalers themselves. In the last seven months alone, Google has sunk $10 billion (and up to $30 billion more) into Anthropic, with Amazon funnelling $5 billion to Anthropic within a week of that investment and a total of $50 billion into OpenAI. For all the concern about circular financing in the AI world, it’s astonishing that so much attention has (rightly, to be clear) centered on NVIDIA’s backstopping and funding of neoclouds, and less on the fact that hyperscalers are propping up their now biggest customers, giving them cash that will eventually migrate back to the hyperscaler.

I’d also argue that the vast majority of their capex exists to support these two load-bearing failsons. A few months ago, a Microsoft executive told the judge during the Musk-Altman trial that its OpenAI relationship had cost it “over $100 billion,” including both the $13 billion it sunk into the company and the associated infrastructure.

Microsoft has dedicated its Fairwater data centers (however much actually exists) entirely to OpenAI, much like Amazon has for Anthropic with however much of its massive Indiana-based Project Rainier has actually been turned on, and much like Google is in talks to backstop a $15 billion data center project for Anthropic, along with data centers with Cipher Mining and TeraWulf and a $35 billion private credit-funded Broadcom-backstopped deal where Google will sell Anthropic its TPU AI chips, put them in a Google-built data center, and rent them back to Anthropic.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

Last week saw Amazon, Google, and Microsoft congratulated for strong quarterly numbers — with outlets patting them on the back for how their AI bets were “paying off,” despite none of them disclosing their actual AI revenues. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble/

Last week’s tech earnings saw outlet after outlet claim that Amazon, Google, and Microsoft’s AI bets were “paying off” as their respective cloud segments reported record revenue growth, casually ignoring that none of them have broken out their AI revenues. To add insult to injury, Microsoft decided, after sharing that it had a $37 billion AI run rate (about $3.08 billion a month) in Q3 FY2026, that it simply didn’t have to share anything about its actual AI payoff in Q4, realizing that its overall numbers would beguile reporters and analysts — especially those with little interest in what was actually going on as long as the topline stuff looked good.

To be clear, all three of these companies’ cloud platforms have many other customers paying for many other things other than generative AI services or AI GPUs, and they’ve all engaged in a combination of multiple outright price increases and changing their core subscriptions to force AI features on them as a means of boosting revenues and conning the street into believing that “AI is paying off” every time they non-consensually thrust it on their customers, framing higher prices as “better value” in a way that fucks the user to appease Wall Street.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · yesterday

Analysts estimate that 70%+ of Microsoft, Google and Amazon's present and future AI revenues are from Anthropic and OpenAI's compute spend and model sales. Outside of two unsustainable AI labs, demand barely exists, and they've massively overbuilt capacity. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-deman...

The AI Demand Bubble

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 5,000 to 18,000 words, in...

wheresyoured.at

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 2h ago

News: Microsoft disclosures and Bloomberg analyses suggest that OpenAI's $24.1 billion in revenue accounted for 70% or more of Microsoft's FY26 AI revenue, and more than 7% of its entire FY26 revenues. Microsoft has spent $261.3bn in capex since 2022. www.wheresyoured.at/news-microso...

Executive Summary:

Microsoft disclosures and Bloomberg analyses show that OpenAI's compute spend and revenue share accounted for 70% or more of Microsoft's FY26 AI revenues, and more than 7% of Microsoft's overall FY2026 revenues.
Microsoft has spent $261.3 billion in capital expenditures since the beginning of 2022.
OpenAI accounted for $24.1 billion of Microsoft's FY2026 revenues.

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com · yesterday

Jared Friedman 🇺🇦@silkscreenfiend.bsky.social · 3h ago

There's a reason that GWB made a hard play for the Arab-American vote. He could have gotten somewhere too if his base weren't such fools and bigots.