Enjoyable interview with Daniel Altman on violent state landgrabs. Taking territory is still “in” but often at lower levels to avoid third-party intervention. shows.acast.com/revolution-i...

Dan Altman on Taking Territory | Revolution in Military Affairs

shows.acast.com

Excellent critique of the jargon overload in military rhetoric. Though many terms mean very little, they’ve acquired a symbolic importance in conveying sophistication and relevance. cove.army.gov.au/article/curi...

Iskander Rehman’s study of the Spanish Civil War (and its parallels w/ Ukraine) is great history—and it also reveals 3 key lessons: on learning from the battlefield, the need to manage escalation vs. authoritarians, and to view ‘local’ conflicts in their global context. hcss.nl/report/a-lit...

“A Little World War”: Lessons From the Spanish Civil War for Contemporary Strategists - HCSS

A new HCSS guest paper by Dr. Iskander Rehman examines the war in Ukraine through the lens of an oft-cited but seldom explored analogy: the Spanish Civil War. It shows how protracted proxy wars often ...

hcss.nl

Solid take on the role of missiles in contemporary conflict: yes, the proliferation of precision-guided munitions puts assets at risk, but 'contestation is not defeat'; it just means you have to adapt, practise and prepare. warontherocks.com/missiles-are...

Missiles Aren’t Strategy: Lessons From Iran for a Pacific Air War

Western airpower debates are increasingly driven by grim math. Analysts tally missile inventories, strike ranges, and sortie-generation capacity against a

warontherocks.com

As NATO builds up its deep strike capability, this framework by Fabian Hoffmann sheds valuable light on different targeting strategies, their underlying logic and also their limitations. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

The strategic-level effects of long-range strike weapons: A framework for analysis

Can long-range strike weapons (LRS) create strategic-level effects? Despite extensive debate about the impact of LRS on contemporary warfare, the question of how such weapons can create strategic-l...

tandfonline.com

Operation Spiderweb (Ukraine’s devastating drone attacks on Russian air bases) was bold but hardly revolutionary. This is the new normal—and its good to see the US military prepare accordingly. Let’s hope the outcomes are as dramatic as suggested in the article. www.defenseone.com/threats/2026...

The Pentagon replicated a Ukrainian-style drone attack in Florida. Now it’s changing its counter-drone strategy

Several things—from the players to the technology—set the exercise apart from previous experiments.

defenseone.com

Though the U.S. Army’s heel-to-toe brigade deployments to Europe show commitment (and help rehearse logistics) its costly and inefficient, this study says. Going back to permannt basing may make more sense. www.stripes.com/branches/arm...

Army tank unit rotations to Europe wearing down the force, study says

The Army’s decadelong practice of rotating armored brigades through Europe is eroding combat readiness and straining budgets, according to a new study.

stripes.com

Good on Russia's apparent efforts to intercept Allied space communications. The recommendation for counter-space capabilities to defend these assets is worthy of further exploration. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

How Russia Is Intercepting Communications from European Satellites

Russia has been secretly stalking European spacecraft since its invasion of Ukraine in 2014. What can Europe do about it?

rand.org

Jeff Michaels’ insightful article on the (very limited) impact of country experts in foreign policy. The Vietnam War is the focus here, but what is described seems applicable to other cases. Rather than a shortage of experts, the issue was a lack of consultation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

If only we understood them better: country experts and the American War in Vietnam

In his 1995 memoir, former US Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara argued one reason why the US lost in Vietnam was insufficient country expertise. This claim generated considerable controversy,...

tandfonline.com

A European theory of victory for Ukraine, driven by 5 conditions to compel a Russian change in strategy. Each has its own associated efforts and all are feasible if we actually want to see Ukraine survive and succeed. (Notably, it doesn’t need to be just a European strategy.) hcss.nl/report/a-eur...

A European Theory of Victory: Compelling Russia to End the War in Ukraine - HCSS

Europe lacks a shared theory of victory in Ukraine - and that absence is now shaping the war’s outcome. As long as Europe fails to define its own end state, others will shape the outcome - in Moscow, ...

hcss.nl

RUSI has an excellent primer on Russia's commissioning of sabotage, surveillance and subversion across EU, often using disposable agents recruited for one-off jobs via social media. The challenges of attribution and follow-up are significant, but not insurmountable. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Responding to Russian Sabotage Financing

Financing is an important yet overlooked element of Russian sabotage in Europe: it can act as both a facilitator and a tool of response.

rusi.org

The Ukraine War has eroded past norms about not striking into Russia in case of war, but the demands of intra-war deterrence remain formidable - and require attention before rather than in the midst of crisis. Interesting treatment by Lukas Milevski. journals.lka.lt/journal/lasr...

While I am no fan of DoD’s new Irregular Warfare definition, this discussion of its recent IW Directive provides crucial context and raises the right questions. I do wonder about DoD’s ability to folllow through... open.spotify.com/episode/1VtO...

Codifying Irregular Warfare—Inside the Pentagon’s new DoD Instruction 3000.07

open.spotify.com

This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH

Rethinking strategic depth in the Baltic States

It is a truism in defence analysis that the Baltic States lack strategic depth, giving the impression that strategic depth is immutable. Such spatial fatalism weakens strategic thinking by eliding ...

tandfonline.com

I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism. Registration for this virtual event is open to all.

American University School of Public Affairs@au-spa.bsky.social · 9mo ago

The National Security Series presents "What Does the Insurgent’s Dilemma Tell Us About Counterterrorism?" with Dr. David H. Ucko, Head of Net Assessment at NATO and Senior Visiting Fellow at King’s College London on Wed, Nov. 12 at 1:30 PM ET. RSVP: https://bit.ly/4qIIlh2

With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...

A Framework for Countering Organized Crime

States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organized crime. Despite states having scored successes at the operational level, organized crime has proven too adaptable and too resilient to ...

digitalcommons.ndu.edu

From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Studying Moscow’s Coercive Campaign Against Norway

Norway’s geopolitical position as both a neighbour of Russia and a member of NATO places it at the forefront of Moscow’s self-assertive and aggressive foreign and security policy. However, Norway’s...

tandfonline.com

Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...

Theories of Victory: Israel, Hamas, and the Meaning of Success in Irregular Warfare

Two months in, what does the war between Israel and Hamas tell us about victory and defeat in irregular warfare? There is no difficulty in identifying those who have lost the most through this conflic...

irregularwarfare.org

Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...

Contested Logistics: Restructuring Battalion Logistics to Combat Peer Threats

by First Lieutenant Brendan Sanders

thecxfile.substack.com

Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...

The Insurgent’s Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail

David E. Spencer’s review of The Insurgent’s Dilemma highlights David Ucko’s nuanced analysis of the strategic challenges insurgent movements face in balancing military efficacy with

realcleardefense.com

Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield. open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...

The Military Technological Arms Race in Ukraine

open.spotify.com

Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...

Russians Do Break: Historical and Cultural Context for a Prospective Ukrainian Victory

For major wars like the one being fought between Russia and Ukraine, the military, the people, and the state interact with one another to constitute a

warontherocks.com

SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal. economist.com/the-americas...

Is Colombia at the “gates of hell”?

Opposing candidates in next year’s presidential election hold wildly divergent views of their country

economist.com

Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...

Moldova detains 74 over alleged Russian plot to stir up unrest

Online disinformation aimed at discrediting Moldova's pro-European government is ramping up ahead of the crunch parliamentary elections on 28 September.

euronews.com

Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...

The First World War: The Invasion of Belgium (Part 1)

Podcast Episode · The Rest Is History · 24/08/2025 · 56m

podcasts.apple.com

Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...

Able Archer 83 (Re)-revisited

Reflections on a Complex Non-crisis

strategicsimplicity.substack.com

Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont... @hurstpublishers.bsky.social

Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come… inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow? - In Moscow's Shadows

In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gan...

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com

NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press). Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...

Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...

A Survey of Europe's Defense and Security Landscape

Modern War Institute · Episode

open.spotify.com