umsonst.bsky.social
@umsonst.bsky.social
Earth-System Nerd who follows from a mechanistic observational perspective the extinction level event we are just now triggering. Earth is unfortunately not a sluggish system changing slowly but a highly non-linear system which can change fast...
Quite fascinating how non-linear the Antarctic sea ice-atmosphere system reacts to deformations and disturbances... #Earth #climate
A short on Antarctic sea ice deformation, tropospheric polar vortext deformation, and heatwaves over Antartica The last weeks we had close to normal Antarctic sea ice with a nice round shape and… | J...
A short on Antarctic sea ice deformation, tropospheric polar vortext deformation, and heatwaves over Antartica The last weeks we had close to normal Antarctic sea ice with a nice round shape and cold...
linkedin.com
#Climate can not be simulated by mean values as it operates via "weather" or short term variations driving Earth system changes... #Earth
Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land | PNAS
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: ...
pnas.org
When wetlands burn all over the place you've got a problem... #climate #earth
In Hungary, a wetland paradise lost
Climate change is drying out a European nation long celebrated for rivers, lakes and fertile fields
ft.com
Truth to tell we do have no experience with such kind of an El Nino and do not know to what extent drought and hot and flooding events will synchronize driven by a jump in tropical convection and atmospheric water content... Hence, the numbers could become much higher... #climate #earth
El Niño could push 50m people into acute hunger before end of next year
UN forecasters warn of worsening conditions in 45 countries currently experiencing severe food insecurity
theguardian.com
"Locally, the MHWs are induced by increased solar radiation, relaxation of winds, and reduced evaporative cooling. In the western Indian Ocean, the decreased winds further restrict the heat transport by ocean currents from the near-equatorial regions toward the north" #climate #Earth
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
This one is important: Positive Indian Ocean dipole supports coastal marine heat waves in the SE Atlantic ocean which is a low marine cloud zone Suppresses upwelling of cold water which supports warming well into the basin Further, El Ninos tend to stronger couple with positive IODs #climate
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole intensifies marine heatwaves in the tropical southeast Atlantic coastal region
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole enhances tropical southeast Atlantic marine heatwaves via both oceanic and terrestrial pathways.
science.org
A general principle for the formation of MHWs: "anomalously high pressure over the North Indian Ocean and low pressure in the Southern Hemisphere, which weakens monsoon winds, reduces evaporation and cloud cover, and increases shortwave radiation, thereby warming the upper ocean" #climate #earth
EGUsphere - Drivers and Variability of Marine Heatwaves in the North Indian Ocean and their Impacts on South Asian Monsoon Rainfall
egusphere.copernicus.org
The signal of oceans running hot in 2023/24 could have only being possible if hot ocean areas supported as a general rule others to run hot Here how Indian ocean MHWs can support the Caribbean sea to run hot #ocean #earth
Spring–Summer Caribbean Sea marine heatwaves tied to previous Winter Indian Ocean marine heatwaves - Nature Communications
Winter marine heatwaves in the Indian Ocean can intensify spring and summer marine heatwaves in the Caribbean Sea through an atmospheric bridge. An eastward propagating wave train alters the regional ...
nature.com
Simulating aerosol emissions from the Australian wildfires in 2019/20 could prevent an El Nino Problem are long term effects During La Nina ocean heat uptake increases which led to the massive temperature jump in 2923/24 Main questions seems to what extent OHU can be reduced? #climate #earth
Pacific cloud brightening could weaken El Nino, but models reveal risks for Europe and Asia
A brewing "super" El Nino cycle is poised to unleash heat waves, floods and drought worldwide, with the effects amplified by long-term human-caused climate change.
phys.org
Model spread is seen as a problem to calculate risks from extremes. Their method reduced model spread to 1-8% of it's former vslue Would say a perfect method to underestimate the risks as models underestimate the increase in extremes... #climate #risk #earth #finance
From single projection to many possibilities: A new tool for climate risk assessment
Assessing how climate change will affect different regions usually requires running a complex chain of models. While this approach provides valuable insights, it is expensive and can cover only a limi...
phys.org
Interesting how atmospheric rivers melt the sea ice and how it's shape became distorted the last days which could favor a wavier jet stream and blocking patterns around Antarctica triggering massive heatwaves which could be a precondition for 2026 to become the hottest year #climate #earth
How atmospheric rivers melt Antarctic sea ice and why it's shape could decide if 2026 become the warmest year ever The last days atmospheric rivers of warm and moist air melted in one sector the…...
How atmospheric rivers melt Antarctic sea ice and why it's shape could decide if 2026 become the warmest year ever The last days atmospheric rivers of warm and moist air melted in one sector the Anta...
linkedin.com
Nice, slowly I enter mainstream yet again... Hopefully we understand the next years that we trigger an extinction level event that progresses fast... www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlJf... #climate #earth
‘Climate free fall’: why the biggest risk to our economies is yet to be recognized
Increasing instability of the ocean, ice and atmosphere threatens farming, finance and society. We all need to wake up to that fact.
nature.com
Deadly temperatures approach fast, way faster than predicted... South Asia a hot spot... "Authorities issue alert saying indoor spaces without airconditioning are ‘dangerous’ as temperatures pass 40C for fifth straight day" Next temperature jump inbound, 2°C around 2030... #climate #earth
‘Stop all outdoor activities’: South Korea records its highest ever temperature
Authorities issue alert saying indoor spaces without airconditioning are ‘dangerous’ as temperatures pass 40C for fifth straight day
theguardian.com
Nah AI works perfectly... Surface is surface why should there be any difference as we stand and drive on surfaces - öhm...
Climate News@climatenews.bsky.social · 3d agoPerhaps this Amazon delivery robot read some online papers about climate change and decided it wasn’t worth waiting around.
Temperature anomaly forecast for August 3, 2026. Some areas over Antarctica are forecast to reach temperature anomalies of about +30°C on August 3, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica...
Snowfall over Antarctica. Warm, moist air can travel in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica, and this can result in snowfall over Antarctica, as illustrated by this forecast for August 2, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica...
Jet Stream moving over West Antarctica and atmospheric rivers of moisture moving toward Antarctica, coming with snowfall and relative humidity as high as 100% on Antarctica on August 1, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica...
Wind pushing warm, moist air over West Antarctica results in high temperature anomalies and snowfall. On August 2, 2026, surface temperatures were as high as -6.1°C (left), while temperatures at 1000 hPa were as high as 1.3°C (same time and location, right). arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica...
Never ending record heat in COLOMBIA 40.6C at Valledupar Ties its highest temperature ever recorded in August. Hundreds of records have been broken and rebroken in Colombia nearly every single day of the year and nearly no-stop since 2015.
Extreme Temperatures Around the World@extremetemps.bsky.social · 5d agoINSANE HEAT ALLOVER COLOMBIA Every region of Colombia has smashed every record every day of the month. Since 2015 Colombia has been breaking and rebreaking records continously. Just in... last July records: 40.0 Jabalcon 35.8 Ibague IDEAM 👇
Highest temperatures of the year in the USA recorded today in Death Valley, CA. 🌡️125.3°F/51.8°C Badwater 🌡️123.7°F/50.9°C Furnace Creek
Oops, it's mutual amplification of weather extremes in a kind of chain reaction... #oceans #earth #climate
Edmonton shatters summer rainfall records, and more's coming | Jan Umsonst
Interesting how one side of Canada is burning while the other is drowning - at least in parts... It's all interconnected. We have no idea how extremes will further intensify in a warmer world, as ups...
linkedin.com
Methane will be the issue Since the record warmth in 2023/24 it made another jump... #climate #earth
Huge blankets of seaweed are smothering coastlines from the Caribbean to Mexico
Some 27 million metric tons of self-sustaining sargassum have been recorded in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in July, according to a report released Friday by the University of South Flor...
pbs.org
It's a clear sign that we overheat the oceans and that global warming will spiral out of control if we do not act fast... Wonder what it will take for leading voices like @zekehausfather.com of climate science to admit that models are wrong? #climate #Earth
Marine heatwaves devastate marine ecosystems and fuel toxic blooms! Extreme SSTs drive extreme toxic blooms and will likely come with a massive GHG signal from coastal systems during this century... #oceans #climate
Year-round marine heat extremes severely impact marine life during the first year at 1.5°C warming
Summer-focused assessments may underestimate the impacts of ocean heat on marine ecosystems. Examining 201 events from 2023 to 2024, an exceptional period of ocean warmth, we show that one-third of no...
cell.com
Next one on the weakening Planck Feedback Outgoing longwave (OLR) radiation only increases weakly while sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures accelerate. Water vapor increases and shifts and cloud cover reductions seem to lie at the centers #climate #earth #wearefucked
![The Stefan–Boltzmann relationship that OLR is non-linear controlled by increasing surface temperatures is clearly wrong if current trends will persist - the recent James Hansen graph indicates so.
Furthermore, the authors write that increases in Earth's energy imbalance lead increases in SSTs by several months. What is important that Earth's energy imbalance progresses in a oscillatory manner showing that cloud controlling factors are at the center not aerosols as they only produce baseline changes.
Additionally they write that SSTs seem also to be controlled by increases in upper ocean heat content and vertical mixing processes.
This one is highly important:
"The Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite series has provided continuous measurements since 2004, with a temporal sampling of 15 min, enabling the characterization of diurnal to interdecadal variations in TOA radiative fluxes"
"While surface warming is expected to lead to increased thermal emission according to the Stefan–Boltzmann relationship, the aggregate non-solar SEVIRI radiances exhibit only a weak positive trend over the study period. This behavior suggests that compensating processes, including cloud and water-vapor changes, play a significant role in modulating the ToA radiative response, and that changes in the reflected solar component may contribute substantially to the observed increasing imbalance between incoming solar radiation and energy re-emitted to space [13]."
"Regional Evolution of the Meteosat Solar and Infrared Spectra (2005–2024) Linked to Cloud Cover and Ocean Surface"; https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/17/4/385](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qfsw5lfocespqswcp62bfexu/bafkreiccyjfecycvi6n4zda5ema6ho6oftm4qv2npix2qvbbhau7epdzvq)
