OSINT Intuitโ„ข

@urikikaski.bsky.social

Clinical, unsparing, quietly damning OSINT analysis of geopolitical events. Providing timely context before the narrative war begins.

๐—ง๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐˜€๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ป'๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ, ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—˜๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐—™๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ. #OSINT #EpicFury

Take It Like a... Squealing Pig! With all of the badass talk you hear from Russian men, they sure know how to be subservient to the State. They would rather die running across an open field under controlled fires in broad daylight than emptying a clip into one of their goon commanders. #OSINT

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโšฐ๏ธ Interesting set of statistics from TG Alexander Kovalenko for the period of May 1-21, 2026: Territory Captured by Enemy = 24.8 kmยฒ Enemy Combat Actions Per kmยฒ Gained = 177 Combat Actions / kmยฒ Gained Enemy Irreversible Casualties Per kmยฒ Gained = 858 Katsaps / kmยฒ Gained OSINT #Ukraine

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐—”๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ธ๐—ฒ Ukrainian Forces struck Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea May 16-17, destroying: โ€ข Pantsyr-S2 โ€ข S-400 Radar โ€ข Orion UAV Control Station โ€ข Forpost UAV Control Station โ€ข S-400 Missile Data Link โ€ข Control Tower โ€ข Airfield Hangars #OSINT #Ukraine

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿคก ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜†'๐˜€ ๐—ž๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐——๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—”๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ A Storm-Z specimen runs through a pile of his dead comrades and triggers another OZM-72 mine. The OZM-72 (ะžะ—ะœ-72) is a Soviet-era AP bouncing mine dubbed a "frog mine". Its offset location indicates it was triggered by a tripwire. #OSINT

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐—ฉ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ป๐—ถ๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—จ๐—ป๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐——๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—”๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ | ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ Lithuania activated its "unmanned danger" protocol this morning after radar detected a UAV-signature track originating from Belarusian airspace moving toward Vilnius.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโšฐ๏ธ ๐—ฅ๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฎ'๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—•๐—ถ๐—น๐—น... ๐—ฆ๐—ผ ๐—™๐—ฎ๐—ฟ AFU Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) confirmed 6,000 irreversible Russians demobilized for the period of May 1-19. Confirmed UAV katsap losses across all SOU unmanned systems units during the same period were 19,203.

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๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—˜ | ๐—ฅ๐—จ๐—ฆ๐—ฆ๐—œ๐—”๐—ก ๐—•๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—ง๐—œ๐—– ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—”๐—ง๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐——๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ก๐—˜ ๐—œ๐—ฃ๐˜€๐—ข The SVR false provocation about Ukraine launching drones from Latvia is now running through Russian proxy Telegram channels in real time.

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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช ๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ข๐—ก๐—œ๐—” | ๐—™๐—œ๐—ฅ๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—ฆ๐—›๐—ข๐—ง๐——๐—ข๐—ช๐—ก BLUF: This morning Latvia warned Estonia a Ukrainian drone was inbound. Estonian radar confirmed the track. A Romanian F-16 on NATO Baltic Air Policing shot it down over Lake Vรตrtsjรคrv. Ukraine's Defense Minister called Pevkur and apologized.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—˜ | ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—ง๐—ฉ๐—œ๐—”๐—ก ๐—›๐—˜๐——๐—š๐—˜ ๐—”๐—ก๐—— ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—”๐—ฅ๐—ง๐—œ๐—–๐—Ÿ๐—˜ ๐Ÿฑ ๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—•๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—  19 May 2026 BLUF: Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has formally claimed Ukraine is preparing strikes on Russian rear areas from Latvian territory.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโš”๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—™๐—ข๐—ฅ ๐—œ๐—ฅ๐—”๐—ก ๐—–๐—Ÿ๐—ข๐—–๐—ž ๐—ช๐—”๐—ฆ ๐—ง๐—œ๐—–๐—ž๐—œ๐—ก๐—š BLUF: The stacked indicators over recent weeks pointed correctly. A planned strike on Iran was scheduled for today, 19 May. Ref: x.com/UKikaski/statu...

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโš”๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—–๐—Ÿ๐—ข๐—–๐—ž ๐—œ๐—ฆ ๐—ง๐—œ๐—–๐—ž๐—œ๐—ก๐—š BLUF: Stacked indicators point to a high probability of kinetic resumption against Iran within the week. Trump spoke with Netanyahu for 30 minutes on Sunday and a senior staff meeting on Iran is scheduled for Tuesday.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐—ก๐—ข ๐—ฆ๐—”๐—™๐—˜ ๐—›๐—”๐—ฅ๐—•๐—ข๐—ฅ I wonder who the new commander of the Caspian Coast Guard will be. AFU deep-strike UAV forces struck a Russian Coast Guard Project 10410 Svetlyak-class patrol boat in the Caspian Sea. The reticle is from an FP-2 variant without aerial rockets. #OSINT #Ukraine

Model specimen from Russia's 13th Combined "Toiletless Steppes" Consanguineous Siblings Spetsnaz Battalion just before getting a drone to the face. Note his brother, literally, at arms, resting on the roadside, after a long day of capturing Berlin.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐Ÿ’ช ๐—จ๐—ž๐—ฅ๐—”๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜ | ๐—œ๐—ก๐——๐—œ๐—š๐—˜๐—ก๐—ข๐—จ๐—ฆ ๐—š๐—จ๐—œ๐——๐—˜๐—— ๐—”๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—”๐—Ÿ ๐—•๐—ข๐— ๐—• Ukraine has announced the successful development and combat readiness of its first indigenous guided aerial bomb (unofficially referred to as the โ€œUkrainian KABโ€).

โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—”๐—จ๐——๐—œ ๐—”๐—ฅ๐—”๐—•๐—œ๐—” | ๐——๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ก๐—˜ ๐—œ๐—ก๐—–๐—จ๐—ฅ๐—ฆ๐—œ๐—ข๐—ก Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones entering from Iraqi airspace on Sunday. It appears the IRGC is directing its proxies to attack Gulf neighbors.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ’ช ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—ช๐—”๐—ฅ ๐—œ๐—ฆ ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—ง๐—จ๐—ฅ๐—ก๐—œ๐—ก๐—š ๐—ง๐—ข ๐—œ๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—›๐—ข๐— ๐—˜ ๐—ฃ๐—ข๐—ฅ๐—ง President Zelensky: "Today, Ukraine's Defense Forces, our Security Service of Ukraine, and our intelligence carried out a very large-scale operation against the Moscow region.

โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐—–๐—จ๐—•๐—” | ๐—ข๐—ฃ๐—˜๐—ก ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ง๐—œ๐—–๐—˜ ๐—ข๐—™ ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—ง๐—›๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—ง ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฌ-๐— ๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐—ข๐—™๐—™๐—ฆ๐—›๐—ข๐—ฅ๐—˜

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿš€๐ŸŽฏ ๐— ๐—”๐—š๐—ฌ๐—”๐—ฅ'๐—ฆ ๐—•๐—œ๐—ฅ๐——๐—ฆ | ๐—ฆ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ฆ, ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜๐—ก ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—ž๐—˜ BLUF: AFU drone doctrine continues to evolve.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ ๐—•๐—˜๐—œ๐—ง ๐—ฆ๐—›๐—˜๐— ๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—› | ๐—ช๐—›๐—”๐—ง ๐—ง๐—ข๐— ๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐—”๐—ก๐—— ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ฅ๐—”๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—œ ๐—š๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—ก๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง ๐—”๐—ฅ๐—˜ ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ง ๐—ฆ๐—”๐—ฌ๐—œ๐—ก๐—š On 1 March, an Iranian ballistic missile struck the Ramat Lehi residential neighborhood in Beit Shemesh.

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ ๐—ง๐—”๐—œ๐—ช๐—”๐—ก | ๐—ช๐—›๐—”๐—ง ๐—ซ๐—œ ๐—š๐—ข๐—ง ๐—œ๐—ก ๐—•๐—˜๐—œ๐—๐—œ๐—ก๐—š Taiwan is a self-governing democracy of 24 million people sitting 160 kilometers off the coast of mainland China. Beijing claims it as sovereign territory and has never renounced the use of force to take it.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ’ฅ ๐—”๐—ญ๐—ข๐—ง | ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—ž๐—˜ ๐—ฆ๐—œ๐—ซ BLUF: Ukrainian drones struck Nevinnomyssky Azot in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai overnight on 15-16 May. This is at least the sixth confirmed attack on the facility since the full-scale invasion began.

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธโšฐ๏ธ ๐—”๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐——๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜ The IDF has confirmed the assassination of Izz al-Din al-Haddad adding that only two senior Hamas commanders who were in Gaza during the October 7 massacres are still living. #OSINT #Israel #Hamas

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