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Vali Nasr

@valinasr.bsky.social

Professor Johns Hopkins-SAIS, Fr Sr Advisor, State Dept, author of Iran's Grand Strategy https://a.co/d/egLBCgz

396 Posts3092 Follower120 Folgt
Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 6h ago

I told FT "Trump cannot win militarily at this level  and he cannot resolve this diplomatically without paying a political cost at home." So he is "lashing out because this is not as simple and as straightforward as he had calculated.” www.ft.com/content/87b0...

Donald Trump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms

US president faces few good options to exit a war he once said would end swiftly with the Islamic republic’s surrender

ft.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 3d ago

I told FT Iran has escalated "to force the US to recalculate its options, following a strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq; holed up in Israel and Jordan.”https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/46485f78-9485-43b8-a43d-2e741f5697e0

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 3d ago

I told FT Iran has escalated "to force the US to recalculate its options, following a strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq; holed up in Israel and Jordan.”https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/46485f78-9485-43b8-a43d-2e741f5697e0

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 6d ago

I told NYT that in restarting the war Trump thought he could control, limiting the battlefield to where U.S. wants to bomb in Iran.“The Iranian response is to extend the battlefield much, much wider, so the United States has to defend a broader battlefield.” www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/u...

U.S. Strikes Iran Again, as Trump Encounters a More Determined Adversary in Widened War

The United States is again exchanging strikes with Iran, just days after the president appeared to reject plans to escalate.

nytimes.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · last wk.

Quite an impasse: Trump has set aside is not escalating the war, because it could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of defense munitions, widene war, alienate regional allies, tank the global economy, and cause refugee crises. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/u...

Trump Holds Off on Major War Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns

Among the worries is that expanded hostilities could dangerously drain the diminished stockpile of air defense munitions in the Middle East.

nytimes.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 2w ago

Can the U.S. force the Strait open? “the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire is to flood the region with a global force that protects vessels. Only other way is an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face. www.ft.com/content/1cbe...

Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?

Renewed air campaign has yet to reassure shipowners the waterway can be made safe from Iranian attacks

ft.com

Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies@johnshopkinssais.bsky.social · 2w ago

Millions filled the streets for Khamenei's funeral, a turnout Trump admitted caught him off guard. 👤 @valinasr.bsky.social on what the late Supreme Leader's death means for the fragile U.S.-Iran agreement. www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-gaza-...

Beyond the Battlefield: What Comes Next for the Iran and Gaza Wars

Palestinian Lawyer Diana Buttu and Iran analyst Vali Nasr speak to Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain.

dropsitenews.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 2w ago

Can the U.S. force the Strait open? “the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire is to flood the region with a global force that protects vessels. Only other way is an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face. www.ft.com/content/1cbe...

Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?

Renewed air campaign has yet to reassure shipowners the waterway can be made safe from Iranian attacks

ft.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 2w ago

I told LA Times on what might be US next steps: “Everything is dependent on the mood of one man. It’s not the system that’s making the decision; it’s not the country making the decision. It’s one man, and it depends how he feels like at one particular point in time.” www.latimes.com/world-nation...

News Analysis: Trump, long a critic of 'forever wars,' may be stumbling into one with Iran

President Trump railed against "forever wars," but with hostilities increasing and negotiations at a standstill, there appears no easy exit from the war he launched on Iran.

latimes.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 3w ago

Is Trump taking US into a forever war? I told NYT that Trump thinks the war with Iran is already one “just another round of a conflict that has sometimes blown hot and sometimes resulted in agreement, like the 2015 nuclear deal Mr. Trump tore up in 2018.” www.nytimes.com/2026/07/16/w...

In Iran war, Trump Risks Another American ‘Forever War’

President Trump, who promised to “end wars,” not start them, may have fallen into a familiar presidential trap.

nytimes.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 3w ago

I told WSJ that ultimately the U.S. cannot get Iran to give up its nuclear program or accept the American terms for ending the war as long as it is holding the Strait of Hormuz. And Iran is trying to protect its leverage www.wsj.com/world/middle...

The Battle for Hormuz: Trump Shifts Into Dangerous New Phase in Iran War

President Trump’s third major shift in military strategy comes as he searches for a way to turn the tables on Iran in the nearly five-month-old war.

wsj.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 3w ago

I told Peter Baker of NYT that in Iran Trump has "encountered a country that is not willing to play by his set of rules, which is you bend and kiss the ring and tell him how great he is and try to get whatever concession he’s willing to give” www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/u...

At War With Iran Again, Trump Finds an Opponent He Cannot Easily Dominate

The president is accustomed to forcing other countries to bend to his will. But he is struggling to come up with a strategy to extract Iranian concessions as the cease-fire he brokered collapses.

nytimes.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 3w ago

I told Peter Baker of NYT that in Iran Trump has "encountered a country that is not willing to play by his set of rules, which is you bend and kiss the ring and tell him how great he is and try to get whatever concession he’s willing to give” www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/u...

At War With Iran Again, Trump Finds an Opponent He Cannot Easily Dominate

The president is accustomed to forcing other countries to bend to his will. But he is struggling to come up with a strategy to extract Iranian concessions as the cease-fire he brokered collapses.

nytimes.com

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 4w ago

The sharp escalation between U.S. and Iran could be the end of the MoU for the simple reason that Iran thinks U.S. wants to use MoU to take away its control of Strait of Hormuz, and if so, it should be ready to go to war over it.

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 4w ago

Excellent piece by Scott Peterson on how the war saved and changed the Islamic Republichttps://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0706/khamenei-funeral-iran-war-regime-strength

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · last mo.

Smart take 👇🏼 on the opportunity Trump has to do something big with Iran akin to Nixon going to China, but does he have the vision and patience?

Stephen Wertheim@stephenwertheim.bsky.social · last mo.

Trump is now Nixon going to China — if Nixon had bombed China first. A remarkable if fragile opportunity has emerged to end this misbegotten war and begin to take America and Iran off their 47-year path of confrontation, Rob Malley and I write in @nytopinion.nytimes.com. Read paywall free: