Valuations
@valuations.bsky.social
Get it now, I’m not into reminiscing.
I love markets because a shady character will post an old chart from an investment bank talking their book and not one person will ask what % of GDP was attributable to deficit spending during the railroad buildout. Instead they say “we’re so early” and “still 10x to go.”
I want to like $META here. I think customer service agents will continue to drive revenue growth and they’ll care about FCF eventually. But I also think they’ll raise capex guide again in July and even with a huge revenue beat the market won’t like it.
Crazy that the CEO of the most overvalued company in the history of markets is also the CEO of the second most overvalued company in the history of markets and at the same time.
What's the best Euro names to get long for a ceasefire rip? Consumer discretionary? Hermes almost buyable but would like to see it ~30x or lower.
Open to counter arguments but as long as things de-escalate from here (looks likely) why would we sell off again? I wanted better prices in a lot of names, but I think the bottom is in.
I sort of did this w/ Claude and it’s been hugely beneficial ytd. I set parameters so strict on stock selection it literally just says no to all of my half baked ideas.
eggnog slut@deus01.bsky.social · 5mo agoMaking an AI Risk agent that just tells you No. Looking for $100B in funding
Incredible how he has fumbled the bag so badly with tariffs and Iran. Deflationary growth w/ AI supercycle handed to him on a platter and he was like no, let’s redo the 1970s instead.
This market looks ready to puke at the open but can’t quite bring myself to press shorts. Not sure what I’m waiting for.
Feels like 99% chance of a Sunday night or Monday morning Truth Social post that will try to jawbone markets higher. Also feels like that will be the most obvious dead cat bounce in history and an insta-fade.
This is a Rorschach test for your personal views about Elon Musk.
Nice beats from $FA. +9% premarket but very illiquid. Announced a buyback worth ~6% of the float. Turns out labor market is just flat, not quite reflecting the doomsday scenario making the rounds.
Valuations@valuations.bsky.social · 5mo ago$FA crushed because Citrini said UE will be at 10% and API focused start ups like Checkr will eat their lunch as records become digitized. But records are at the county level, fragmented, require runners, will take a decade plus. Large data moat, duopoly likely at trough. Very cheap but PE overhang.
$DE is trading at a higher sales multiple than half of SaaS with 30% gross margins and 5% projected revenue growth for FY26 😭
Anyone else noticing the IG algo suddenly feeling closer to Xitter? Maybe my own engagement shifting but suddenly getting served a bunch of unhinged conspiracy vids. Feels like the “Facebook files” was only yesterday and already full circle.
Closed all my puts yesterday and covered most single name shorts. Hoping to see vol come down so I can put them back in place. 1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.
Ok I know I’m officially having too much fun this week because I just bought a $MSTR flier.
a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box
ALT: a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box
media.tenor.com
Seems like a low bar for $AMZN tonight. Just don’t guide capex above estimates and it’s green. Retail probably humming.
This makes me want to bottom fish software but then I spend an hour reading about the specific products and still have no idea what most of them even do.
"Dan Ives is an analyst - and a whole lot more." Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga... "Should You Trust Him?"
sec.gov
Helene Meisler@hmeisler.bsky.social · 6mo agoDan Ives on the cover of Barrons!
NGL. the chance to short Tesla, SpaceX and MechaHitler all under one wrapper sounds like a dream come true.
20 years from now, I’d be surprised if there’s still one Tesla on the road. They’ll be like the vintage Volkswagen beetles that only eccentrics and collectors own.
There were so many “I’m writing in Mitt Romney” finance guys in 2024 who made false equivalencies about how bad both candidates were and I’m more disillusioned by them than the MAGA cult. Fulton county raided and these assholes couldn’t tell who was the worse candidate after Jan 6th?
MAGA thinks Democrats opened borders and set up sanctuary cities, to inflate votes, so they send an untrained clown force to LARP Call of Duty, who then kill two US citizens and shit on the constitution so badly a blue wave in midterms nearly guaranteed? That about cover it?
“…an early-stage, Hong Kong-based bioscience company with no revenue” We all know what $RGC is. There’s no reason this should be listed on a US exchange
Debasement trade, de-dollarization, and sell US / buy EM takes are all going to age like milk.
No ill will toward gold bugs, but they were right for the wrong reasons. Schiff et al were screaming about QE induced inflation a decade plus before it happened and it required a global catastrophe + supply chain shocks + absurd amounts of fiscal stimulus to make it happen.
Interesting feedback loop w/ Trump 2.0 surrounded only by toadies and sycophants who feed his worst inclinations vs the John Kelly’s of his first term who reined him in. I used to think Trump had a nose for politically unpopular decisions. I’m not sure he’s even aware how badly they’re crashing now
It’s time to stop pointing out all the hypocrisy in the Republican Party. They simply do not care and pointing it out will not make them care. Energy is better spent trying to make Democrats better. They’ve been extremely pathetic. There’s a leadership vacuum that got us here in need of repair.
