$CLF lagging HRC. Last few times when HRC prices were here it tended to be in the 18-20 range (at 12 now). Constructive technical setup.
Starting to look at $SPCX. It has earnings today and lock up expiration starts on Thursday. $ASTS & $RKLB are just following it. There is also the $WARP ETF. Logic is that lock up will give us a print under 100, shorts will cover and it squeezes to 150 over 2 weeks for IPO AVWAP tag.
Văzdooh@vazdooh.bsky.social · 2w ago$ASTS possible major support area here. AVWAP from the start of this run, 50 psychological level, previous horizontal support. Minimum bounce should be 21 EMA reconnect around 70. Ideal entry would be on an undercut of 50. Would wait a few weeks to see if it gives it.
Will start adding to $DRAM today. Should be full position over 2-3 days. To hold until opex week then reassess.
$CVNA looks like a failed H&S breakdown into major horizontal support. Confirmation and breakout of the downtrend give it a target of 120. Had what looks like a financed call spread yesterday as well (66 long, 80 & 36 short). If H&S break down realizes 25-30 target.
My take on FOMC is that the bond market is overreacting to a nothing burger. Warsh seems to be preparing something for Jackson Hole, which the market will likely interpret as hawkish. Buying more long term TLT today (Jan 2028).
Before you ask, no dip buys before FOMC and the big earnings this week. Market is in a "sell first, ask questions later" mood.
Cut $IBM here basically break even. Still think it does the 55 EMA retest but will take this path. Will re add as we near the bounce timing of August 4th.
Văzdooh@vazdooh.bsky.social · 2w agoKind of liking $IBM here for a bounce to to 250-60. ETA 1-2 weeks. Cut at EOM if it hasn't made the move by then. Clear broadening and took out the lows (exhaustion) Yearly AVWAP extreme If it loses the broadening later or after consolidation look out below.
Had some ideas on why I think the AI build out will have it's bust moment. Refined with Deepseek 😅. Did not know where to put something this long so used substack. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Made a global liquidity offset indicator to make it easier to use.
GlobalLiquidityOffset — Indicator by Vazdooh
A global liquidity indicator broken down by region that allows you to offset and compare it to stocks.
tradingview.com
Out here after the average down. Can hit 60 today but 🤷♂️
Văzdooh@vazdooh.bsky.social · 3w agoGot some $DRAM, will buy more EOD if it's lower or if it opens lower tomorrow.
Not saying that it will happen, but if today fades as well I think indexes start to break from here. Feels like market is convinced we get a TACO and abstaining from dropping/oil not going up, which reduces the likelihood of a TACO.
$ASTS possible major support area here. AVWAP from the start of this run, 50 psychological level, previous horizontal support. Minimum bounce should be 21 EMA reconnect around 70. Ideal entry would be on an undercut of 50. Would wait a few weeks to see if it gives it.
Kind of liking $IBM here for a bounce to to 250-60. ETA 1-2 weeks. Cut at EOM if it hasn't made the move by then. Clear broadening and took out the lows (exhaustion) Yearly AVWAP extreme If it loses the broadening later or after consolidation look out below.
$VLO is a proxy for the crack spread trade. This was at mid, but I suspect the peak crack spread narrative is about to end. Another week or so at most IMO.
Today is quite surprising. It looks like the market is pricing in CAPEX cut announcements for Mag7 earnings. Considering what META is doing I think it's more likely we get an increase across the board. Will add to semi stuff as we go lower if it continues.
Update with KOSPI. I think this is as accurate as it can get.
Văzdooh@vazdooh.bsky.social · 4w agoUsed $MU as the ticker and matched dates to get an idea on when things will happen. Please take with a grain of salt as dates will not be exact. Expect 1-2 day margin of error. We're in for a rough couple of months if this plays out. Mag7 version is one month ahead of this.
Gold ok as well. Minimum 4350, but more likely a yearly AVWAP retest at 4700
Moment of truth for $DXY. If it fails to hold the breakout it's likely going back to 98 over the next month, and 95 by year end.
Will grab some $TLT. Expecting low 90s before end of September after today's CPI print. Especially if indices roll over in August.
Trying some $ORCL on the new lows. Starter today, a bit more tomorrow. Target 150 first, 160 end goal.
