New: Colorado State says 2026 will be one of the quietest hurricane seasons in decades, with only 40% of normal activity! That makes me 😃 They are forecasting a total energy (ACE) of only 50 units (honestly that may be too high). The normal is 123 units. Only 2013 (36) and 1997 (41) had less. 1/

Why are the devastating fires 🔥 in the Pacific NW so immense? Is it ‘just summer’? Land management issues? Climate change? In this short video we cover a ton of ground with an in-depth analysis on what the data shows. Stick around for a complete picture of the #science of these #wildfires #spokane

*2026 El Niño Ahead by a Mile* It’s remarkable for us scientists to witness El Niño’s evolution. If you had asked us if something like this was possible a year ago, it would have been a definitive no. But here we are… already more than 1C (& 3 months) ahead of the next strongest episode in 1997… 1/

Climate change never ignites a fire. That’s almost always humans or lightning. But it’s clear when we examine the data that climate heating sets the table for fires that burn faster and larger. Since the 1980s temperatures during fire season in the Pacific NW have warmed around 4°F… 1/

Smoke will cover half the US today from the devastating Pacific NW fires. Here’s where we stand: 2.4 Million Acres burned in Washington, Oregon, & Idaho - 16X the size of #Chicago. 700 structures lost. Countless lives changed forever. One unsustainably warming planet. 🌍 #smoke #fire #spokane

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d ago

The wildfires in the Pacific NW are incredibly sad and devastating. We have to face the fact that a warming climate is unsustainable. As you can see, fires in the Pacific NW are getting much larger in recent decades. The largest fires (100K acres+) have increased by 10-15X since the 1980s. 1/

NASA: Warming Effects of Carbon Pollution since the 1800s. Wait for it. Since human’s industrialized the Earth has warmed 1.5°C/2.7°F due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases released from the burning of fossil fuels, changes in land use, and the feedbacks of both. This may not sound like much but 1/

The wildfires in the Pacific NW are incredibly sad and devastating. We have to face the fact that a warming climate is unsustainable. As you can see, fires in the Pacific NW are getting much larger in recent decades. The largest fires (100K acres+) have increased by 10-15X since the 1980s. 1/

See 2026 on right? It’s the hottest the El Niño subsurface has ever been measured. If we are being honest, we have to do serious research into how excess heat due to climate change (90% stored in Ocean) likely fuels stronger El Nino’s. To no one’s surprise, stored heat is coming back to haunt us!

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d ago

Another El Niño Record! Watch as heat back ups at the end. The heat building below the surface, which fuels El Niño, is higher than ever measured. This shows the heat just below the Trop Pacific sfc, moving from the W.Pacific Warm Pool where it’s stored, to the E. Pacific Sfc where El Niño forms 1/

Another El Niño Record! Watch as heat back ups at the end. The heat building below the surface, which fuels El Niño, is higher than ever measured. This shows the heat just below the Trop Pacific sfc, moving from the W.Pacific Warm Pool where it’s stored, to the E. Pacific Sfc where El Niño forms 1/

New: Florida dethroned? Not so fast! Data from 2013-2025 shows Florida cities knocked out of the top spot for thunderstorms. New Orleans takes the #1 spot - averaging 218 thunder hours per year - hours when at least 2 #lightning strikes occurred in/around the city. That’s nine full days per year 1/

Wicked Winter Jet Stream! In seasonal forecasting you almost never get a signal as strong as this. Our winter models are unanimously forecasting a very strong subtropical jet stream (in pink) Makes sense… it’s likely to be the strongest El Niño on record. So what does that mean?… 1/

Caribbean Storm Shredding Shear! You’ve probably heard that there’s a chance of development in the Tropical Atlantic. There’s a decent signal for it in 1-2 weeks. But if it dares enter the #Caribbean, it will meet its maker with 60-80+ mph shear! #hurricane

Witnessing history. Here’s what the CFS seasonal model ensemble forecast mean looks like for this El Niño against the distribution of all El Niño events on record. The colored dots represent the strongest El Nino’s. The red dot 🔴 way out in right field is the CFS peak for November… 1/ 🧵

⚡️ Lightning Blitz ⚡️ ~200K lightning strikes in/ around Florida and the Southeast Asia over the past 24 hours! That’s due to a very unusual summer pattern. You can see how the lightning streaks trace out the shape of the jet stream and the stalled front draped across the #Gulf… 1/

Watch as we dive into Super Typhoon Dolphin - a Cat 5 in the Western #Pacific. Remarkably it’s forecast to remain a Cat 5 thru Sunday, and a major #typhoon through next week. It has a chance of accumulating enough energy (ACE) b4 landfall 10 days from now, to end up a top ten ACE producer in history

Part of Albany, New York surpassed its 1-in-1000 year threshold by almost 2”! And almost doubled the highest 24-hour rainfall of 5.60”. A reminder, this does not mean it only happens once every 1000 years. It means there’s a less than .1% chance it happens in any given year… 1/

🔥 A simple analysis on the European Fires. The temperature and relative humidity departures from normal are astonishing. Since late May France and Spain have a 2-Month temperature anomaly of +10-15°C (up to 27°F) -and- a relative humidity anomaly of approx -25%! 1/

‼️ 1000-Year Rain Event In New York The rain falling in the #Hudson Valley has peaked near the 1-in-1000 year recurrence interval. That means the chance of this happening is .1% in any given year. Flash Flood Warnings ongoing for life-threatening flooding… 1/

Folks it’s busy! A very amplified weather pattern brings the planet’s biggest heat dome to the US West, while forcing very stormy weather to Florida and the #Gulf Coast, #smoke carried 2500 miles from Oregon to #Florida, not to mention unprecedented fires in #Europe!

Folks… check out the innovative new sustainability venture from my good friend Katherine. She’s my former CBS News climate producer, now she rescues and restores stuffies, finding them a new home. It’s located in Vermont. Also how can I add this to a sustainability list?

The Bunny Bin@thebunnybin.bsky.social · last wk.

Left national news to rescue secondhand stuffies, clean them, repair them, and rehome them. In a job market this bad, I don’t miss how much journalism broke my heart. Now I spend my days elbow-deep in something I can actually fix. (And yes, I’m positively drowning in toys.) 10/10 would recommend.

Stormy pattern sets up shop across Florida into next week! A very amplified jet stream pattern - almost winter-like without the cold air, sorry🙃. This map is NOAA 7-day rain- pretty significant from Sarasota & Tampa Bay northward starting tonight. Coastal locations could see several inches of rain.

130° in Death Valley this Weekend? Not probable, but certainly possible! NOAA’s forecast is for 129 - 1° short of the highest temperature ever “reliably measured” on Earth, also set in Death Valley in 2021. Believe it or not… 1/

‼️ Cat 5 Genevieve in 3D The Storm became the first Cat 5 in the East Pacific since 2024. This Storm is boosted by record hot water temperatures partly due to El Niño and the longterm climate warming trend. This area is favored this season due to the El Niño.

🔥 These Pacific NW fires are explosive! The active wildfires in Oregon and Washington have already burned ~1.2 million acres, an area nearly 4X the size of New York City! And there’s nothing standing in their way with no rain expected, and a big heat dome growing over the SW into next weekend.

💨 Holy Smokes! Smoke to Florida! Believe it or not the smoke from the huge fires in the Pacific NW / Oregon will reach #Florida Monday! The reason: the circulation around a big heat dome over the Plains. That will bring thick #smoke into the Great Lakes then drive it into the Southeast… 1/

Ever hear of Corn Sweat!? It’s a real thing! In the #Midwest today heat index values reached 120 to near 130°F! Temps near 100°, dewpoints over 80°! The corn and irrigation “sweats” - releases water vapor into the air through evapotranspiration… 1/

This animation shows the extent to which climate change is impacting the #heatwave. The 5X is about the biggest expanse I’ve seen in this analysis. From @ClimateCentral

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2w ago

The biggest heat dome on the planet! Sound ⬆️ Starting now, the biggest #heatdome on planet Earth will make a home here in the US, from the MS River West! It’s gonna be a brutal week with highs up to 120°+ in spots! Meanwhile in the East, it will be cooler than normal, and stormy in #Florida.

The biggest heat dome on the planet! Sound ⬆️ Starting now, the biggest #heatdome on planet Earth will make a home here in the US, from the MS River West! It’s gonna be a brutal week with highs up to 120°+ in spots! Meanwhile in the East, it will be cooler than normal, and stormy in #Florida.

In a league of its own! This years forecast El Niño in white, compared to all the strongest El Nino’s on record in color. If the forecast is right, it’s gonna redefine how we view El Niño and its impacts! #elnino

Woah! ⚡️Extreme case of Bolts from the Blue! Numerous #lightning bolts up to ~10 miles ahead of a storm today in Sarasota county. This picture is worth a 1000 words. Lightning can happen far from the storm core. The clique goes, “When thunder roars, go indoors!” ⚡️ #Florida