With #Bertha’s 2.2 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the books, the 2.6 total ACE the 2026 hurricane season has produced so far this year is spitting distance from normal, for now. The average season through July 24 has produced ~6 ACE units but the median is ~3 ACE units.

#Bertha is still out there doing its signature move, namely being a barely noticeable tropical storm clinging to the coast. Impacts in coastal E TX/LA today are limited to 40-50 mph gusts, passing showers & 1-3’ of surge. Thursday/final Bertha update: weathertiger.substack.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 23rd

Bertha is scraping the western Gulf Coast with modest wind, rain, and surge impacts.

weathertiger.substack.com

#TropicalStormBertha is producing bands of showers with 40-50 mph wind gusts from eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, plus 1-3’ feet of elevated tides. #Bertha should slowly wind down as it scrapes the Central/Western Gulf Coast through tomorrow afternoon. Full Wednesday update:

Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 22nd

Bertha is dawdling along the Central Gulf Coast, producing generally modest impacts.

weathertiger.substack.com

As expected, #TropicalStormBertha is peaking out in strength this morning as it makes a close brush past the Florida Panhandle, bringing gusty bands as it does. Your full Tuesday details on #Bertha’s wind, surge, and rain impacts from #Florida to #Texas:

Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 21st

Bertha is brushing the Florida Panhandle with gusty bands, but rain will continue to be intermittent as the tropical storm approaches the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow.

weathertiger.substack.com

#TropicalDepressionTwo is adrift in the NE Gulf, and could become TS #Bertha today. Will potential Bertha measure up to its canonical sobriquet of “big?” Not especially. Discussing all the rain, surge, wind, and tornado impacts of #TD2, such as they are: weathertiger.substack.com/p/weathertig...

WeatherTiger Tropical Depression Two Impacts Forecast for July 20th

TD 2 is a rainmaker from west-central Florida to eastern Louisiana into midweek.

weathertiger.substack.com

#TropicalDepressionTwo has gotten a bit better organized overnight, but is still struggling against dry air and shear. Likely to become Tropical Storm #Bertha today, but rainfall along #Florida Gulf Coast remains main impact. Full #TD2 forecast and discussion out around noon.

#Invest91L in the eastern Gulf is organizing and NHC development odds are now 80%. Advisories/watches are likely to begin later today, and I'll have my forecast after those go out. In the meantime, #Florida can expect showers and storms today along the Panhandle and Peninsula Gulf Coast.

The NHC odds of a Gulf convective blob becoming a tropical depression are up to 30%, but the odds of it causing a rainy weekend and beyond for #Florida are higher. If you have outdoor plans over the next few days, beware of blob. Weekend forecast here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/major-blob...

Major Blob Alert: WeatherTiger's Hurricane Watch for July 17th

A dollop of Gulf convection will keep Florida wet into next week and has an outside chance at modest tropical development.

weathertiger.substack.com

Each computer forecast model has strengths and weaknesses, but with so many new models plus AI getting in the mix recently, which should you trust for accurate hurricane forecasts? The 2026 WeatherTiger Hurricane Model Power Rankings are out today, rating 'em all from F-tier to S-tier.

Next Top Model '26: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for July 15th

Counting down WeatherTiger's 2026 hurricane computer model power rankings.

weathertiger.substack.com

U.S. weather this week is a one-if-by-land situation: our fair country will be free from the tyranny of hurricane threats, yet oppressed by excessive heat. Latest on the swelter and when the next tropical system might develop in this week’s Independence Day (and “Independence Day”)-themed column.

To the Gulf Stream Waters: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for July 1st

A disturbance winding down east of Florida means no tropical threats to the holiday weekend, though it'll be hot enough to make King George III go mad.

weathertiger.substack.com

Hyper-mega El Nino 2026 is here, and all other tropical storms must bow before it. But how will a potential record El Nino influence the 2026 #hurricane season and beyond? This week's column looks at how El Nino modulates development, and checks on the odds of close to home activity in early July.

Heated Rivalry: WeatherTiger Weekly Column for June 24th

How will a potential record El Nino influence the 2026 hurricane season and beyond?

weathertiger.substack.com

Taking the scenic, overland route, #TropicalStormArthur will grind along the Gulf Coast today before moving inland overnight. The key impact of #Arthur is heavy rainfall and flash flood risks from #Texas to #Florida through Friday. Forecast, numerous Holy Grail references here:

Rain Check: WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast for June 17th

Arthur is a flash and river flooding threat to the central Gulf Coast and inland Deep South.

weathertiger.substack.com

#PotentialTropicalCyclone1, currently over south #Texas, may become #TropicalStormArthur in the NW Gulf tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will continue through Friday across the Gulf Coast. Tuesday forecast discussion for #PTC1 here:

WeatherTiger's Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 Forecast for June 16th

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will bring several more days of heavy rainfall and localized flood threats along the Gulf Coast east to the Florida Panhandle.

weathertiger.substack.com

Earthquakes have sprung to an 1-0 lead over tropical cyclones on the Gulf Coast. While a whole lotta shakin’ has been going on, there's no indication that the Tropics will send out shock waves soon. This week's column takes a look at development chances, seasonal outlooks, and oceanic crust rocks:

Earthquake Weather: WeatherTiger Weekly Hurricane Column for June 10th

The earth shifts, but the skies remain mostly quiet in week 2 of hurricane season.

weathertiger.substack.com

#HurricaneSeason2026, like 2026 as a whole, is off to a sloppy start. Our first weekly #hurricane column of the year has the forecast details, plus affirms our Paint Pledge against the AI slop clogging the arteries of society. Sign up at the link to get all our columns in your inbox this season.

The No-Slop Zone: WeatherTiger Weekly Column for June 3rd

High wind shear is keeping it messy in the Gulf and Caribbean as the season kicks off.

weathertiger.substack.com

WeatherTiger's May Hurricane Season outlook is out now, and continues to be cautiously optimistic news for the continental U.S. coastline. Our landfall risk model projects around a 65% chance of 1-2 U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2026, and about 30% lower net landfall activity than an average season.

WeatherTiger’s first outlook for the 2026 hurricane season is here, and it's a refreshing break from the mostly active forecasts of the last decade. Our landfall risk model projects net Accumulated Cyclone Energy near CONUS of 2.5-3 units, about 40% less than the 1900-2025 mean.

Serious numbercrunching going on at WeatherTiger World HQ today in preparation for the release of our initial outlook for the 2026 Hurricane Season! Look for WeatherTiger's forecast to be out this Wednesday. It may even contain some rare good news for the year ahead for once...

The NHC post-analysis report for #HurricaneMelissa is out now. Estimated maximum sustained winds were nudged upwards to 190 mph at #Melissa's peak, tying Hurricane Allen (1980) for the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center Bot@nhcbot.bsky.social · 5mo ago

NHC has completed its post-analysis and Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane #Melissa. Melissa, one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) with a ... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2026690187632210181

Winter is back in #ExtremeNorthernFlorida and it's going to stick around for awhile. The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:

Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger)

After a brief reprieve, winter is back in Extreme Northern Florida, where temps will struggle into the 40s this afternoon ahead of a bitterly cold and breezy night with lows in the lower 20s. The Nati...

substack.com

While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows. #Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx

Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist! Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida: www.facebook.com/weathertiger...

Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT. Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!

Saturday Night Florida Snow Update: Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia. My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:

Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger)

Saturday Night Florida Snow Update: Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, as a combination of an Arctic front and weak Gulf low looks to probably change that cold rain over to a few ho...

substack.com

Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee. Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx

North #Florida, are you ready for the transcendent winter magic of 37-degree rain? Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:

Florida Potential Winter Storm Update for January 15

Weighing the odds that the Panhandle ekes out a little snow on Sunday morning.

weathertiger.substack.com

Do you believe? I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2

Now is the winter of our social media #content, as chatter ripples of southern winter storm threats. Does the jet stream pattern ahead check the necessary boxes to square the circle and bring #Florida winter whimsy back in 2026? My monthly off-season newsletter has much-needed historical context:

Fire and Ice: The WeatherTiger Newsletter for January 2026

A deep dive into Florida winter weather, past and present.

weathertiger.substack.com

Matt is right on the money. This is a vindictive attack on public safety.

The Eyewall@theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Today we discuss the news that NCAR, a critical cog in weather research has been targeted to be dismantled by the Trump Administration and why that's a really, really bad decision. We also connect NCAR to ongoing atmospheric river events. More below or at theeyewall.com.

People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.