1/ The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% today. That was expected. Far more concerning is what has happened since it finalised its forecast—and what its adverse scenario says could come next. 🧵

Today we launch #reciprocism - a new progressive politics built on power, place, participation and protection. It's based on one simple idea: The state does more for you, and you do more for each other. Read here: www.ippr.org/articles/wha...

Progressives haven’t had a compelling political project since the Third Way. Our new report sets out one: #reciprocism. A politics in which the state does more for citizens, while asking more of them in return. Read here: www.ippr.org/articles/wha...

1/ The OBR published its 50-year projections for the public finances today. Stable this decade, then increasingly unsustainable as the costs of ageing, health and weak productivity build. It'll be overshadowed by NATO coverage — here's why it shouldn't be 🧵

Up to 8 million jobs in the UK are exposed to AI. But a jobs apocalypse is not inevitable. A new generation of workers' rights can protect workers and ensure everyone benefits from this new technology. @josephevans.bsky.social explains 👇

GDP grew 0.6% in March — better than feared, but don't get comfortable. As I wrote today, the Iran shock barely shows up in this data. The real damage is still coming, and leaving it to the Bank of England is the wrong response. www.lbc.co.uk/article/gdp-... 🧵👇

Don't be fooled by today's GDP figures. The real Iran shock is coming | LBC

An immediate 10p fuel duty cut could reduce peak inflation by up to 2 percentage points, writes economist William Ellis

lbc.co.uk

Capping prices in a supply shock? Wouldn't this just pretend that we have as much oil and gas available as before Iran? Price caps can work in supply shocks when they're designed well 🧵1/9

Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org · 3mo ago

🪫 | NEW REPORT: The Iran war could could cost the Treasury up to £8bn a year through higher debt interest payments & lost tax revenue. In this report we make the case for capping energy prices to limit inflation. Read more here: www.ippr.org/articles/pri...

CPI held steady at 3% in February — as lower motor fuel costs were offset by higher core goods prices. But today's figures are a snapshot of the world before Trump's conflict in the Middle East. The real story is what's coming next. 🧵

Markets weren’t surprised the Bank of England held rates today. But the backdrop has shifted: the Bank has cut its inflation and growth forecasts, strengthening the case for earlier rate cuts to support the economy while keeping inflation on target. #BoE #UKeconomy 🧵

The Bank of England must pull its weight, and be more open about the impact of its active QT on yields. www.ft.com/content/4137...

The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp today. A welcome move as inflation pressures ease and the labour market cools. The next question is the pace: further cuts in 2026 look likely, but it will hinge on incoming data. Thread below 🧵

The cut to interest rates is welcome news. We expect inflation and labour markets will continue to cool, and further cuts to interest rates will be needed to protect economic growth and ensure inflation hits the 2 per cent target, says @willellisecon.bsky.social.

Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule. Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.

Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵

Rule of the market: How to lower UK borrowing costs | IPPR

To lower borrowing costs, the government must continue to rebuild credibility, carefully manage market sentiment and pursue growth-enhancing policies with

ippr.org

The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy

Great to see Rachel Reeves strike a clear note on fiscal sustainability & reducing debt at #LabourConference2025. Sending the right signal ahead of the Budget is crucial — and markets look to have responded positively.

Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England. To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...

Andrew Bailey under political attack on all fronts

Legacy of Bank of England’s quantitative easing policy is coming back to bite the Governor

telegraph.co.uk

Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇

The ‘educated guess’ set to decide Keir Starmer’s fiscal fate

OBR judgment on productivity comes as Labour backbenchers fret about watchdog’s influence

ft.com

1/Productivity really matters - strong growth allows us to produce more, collecting extra tax. Today's data still looks weak, seemingly vindicating calls for a costly OBR downgrade - but closer assessment reveals a strong argument for keeping steady.