W. M. Halm

@wmhalm.bsky.social

Will Halm Ph.D. student in Political Science at Berkeley parties | populism | public opinion

While we're all for a brief moment thinking about polling in mayoral elections, just a reminder that my co-authors & I on this JREP article 👇 found that polling non-white voters & voters with less education can be really hard, especially in primaries. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Getting the Race Wrong: A Case Study of Sampling Bias and Black Voters in Online, Opt-In Polls | Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics | Cambridge Core

Getting the Race Wrong: A Case Study of Sampling Bias and Black Voters in Online, Opt-In Polls - Volume 9 Issue 3

cambridge.org

Dan Hopkins@dhopkins1776.bsky.social · last yr.

Here is a plot showing the shifting support across the Democratic mayoral candidates in our @today.yougov.com two-wave panel of NYC Democrats. * Our second wave was May 27-June 16. * Cuomo -> 47% of first-choice preferences. * Mamdani -> 22% of first-choices preferences.