Tropical weather fans, hurricane experts: What's your "Mt. Rushmore" of US hurricanes? I think the top 2 are pretty straightforward. But narrowing down the last 2 is much more challenging. 🤔

The snoozing Atlantic hurricane season is off to its slowest start (by ACE index) in 17 years. 2009 had its first storm, then a major hurricane in mid-August.

Interesting to see the still relatively high PM10 levels in Phoenix this morning following last night's haboob. Could be more blowing dust (another haboob) this evening?

All the "1s" on this map from the SERCC show cities with their hottest year-to-date, or a tie through late July. Includes: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.

Looks like the Land of Lincoln will only continue to pad its incredible lead over all other states in the 2026 tornado race, unfortunately, once surveys are done from Monday's severe weather.

America's top tornado state In 2026, so far, is surprising

One state far and away leads the pack in 2026 for both confirmed and reports of tornadoes. It's not the one you think.

weather.com

NWS-Green Bay rated the Appleton-Menasha tornado a preliminary EF3, with maximum estimated winds of 140 mph. Since 1950, per NCEI storm events database, that's only the 4th tornado rated F/EF3+ in either Outagamie or Winnebago Counties. The last one, there, was April 27, 1984.

Fans at Lambeau Field for today's Packers annual shareholder meeting should pay close attention to the weather. A line of severe t-storms could head toward Green Bay in about an hour. Listen to directions of Lambeau Field staff and seek shelter if those storms move in.

I used to bike, jog, rollerblade along this small creek while at CSU. Never gave thought to it at the time, but that nearby small creek or river can become a life-threatening torrent in an extreme rain event such as this one.

Weather History@weatherhistory.bsky.social · last wk.

July 27-28th, 1997: Fort Collins, CO, was inundated by a flood that killed five people. The event inspired the creation of CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network), an international network of volunteers who monitor daily precipitation totals.

After Genevieve briefly hit Cat. 5 earlier this AM, looks like Tropical Storm Dolphin is forecast to become the week's second Cat. 5 near Wake Island in a few days. Dolphin could have an interesting future later next week. 👀 (Model forecast: @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social)

RRFS near-surface smoke forecast for this weekend, for now, doesn't look anywhere near as ominous as last week's event.

Three weeks of July in the books, and it has been among the top 10 hottest on record from Florida to parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and N. Plains. Hottest: Elkins, WV; Marquette, MI (tie) and Rapid City, SD. Data: SERCC

It's not as lame, but I'm getting some T.S. Don 2011 vibes with Bertha right now.

The shear that saved the Gulf Coast from what could have been a potentially stronger Bertha, as seen by satellite this AM. 🛰️: CIRA, NOAA

2026 Atlantic hurricane season-to-date: Lopsided, sheared Gulf tropical storms: 2 Caribbean shear: very high That's it, so far.

We're now halfway through "meteorological summer" (June-August). Boston, Providence, W. Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota have had their warmest first half of any "meteorological summer", per SERCC.

Smoke outlook: - Some improvement later today in upper Midwest. - T-storm threat could clean air in Northeast tomorrow - Second, third waves of smoke this weekend, then Tue-Thu. - That "third wave" could -> parts of South.

Multiple flood waves along the Guadalupe River in Texas. Reminds me of an eyewall, then eye, then other side of the eyewall.

Now the third highest flood level on record along the Guadalupe River at Comfort, TX. About 1.5 feet above the July 4, 2025, crest, there, and behind only the floods of 1869 and 1978.

FWIW, NASA's GEOS model is forecasting two more southward plunges of wildfire smoke: 1) This weekend 2) Next Tue-Thu The second one could at least bring some surface smoke into parts of the South.

A morning sunrise here in the Milwaukee suburbs more along the lines of what I saw in a trip to Beijing over 10 years ago. #Codepurple #coughcough

This smoke episode the next couple of days won't be the only one. With NW flow aloft forecast to be reinforced in the E. US, we could see another smoke episode this weekend, then again next week. It's a "catch 22" we've seen in recent summers. Heat relief, but smoke-tapping pattern.

The US heat dome, a northern Quebec gyre, and some smoke tapped into New England. 🛰️: NOAA, CIRA_CSU

They may come up just short, but two typical US "cold spots" will flirt with extremely rare 100s today. Int'l Falls, MN ("Nation's Icebox") last hit 100˚ almost 103 years ago. Marquette, MI (NWS office location) has not recorded a triple digit high in records since 1961.

Jarring to see a forecast high in a location that hasn't recorded a 110˚+ high that isn't in the South. Billings, MT all-time record is 108˚. Not to mention a potential all-time record tie in Salt Lake City Sunday.

Admittedly, just one run of one operational model that often is strongest with ridges, so all typical disclaimers apply and mainly for entertainment purposes. But....600dm ridge, anyone?

8 were killed and another 18 were injured by thunderstorms in the US from last Friday - Monday. But was this rash of severe weather unusual? Perspective 👇

Why severe weather slammed Northeast, Midwest Fourth of July?

Power outages, downed trees and flooding were holiday headaches in New York, Washington and Chicago. But strong thunderstorms are typical this time of year.

weather.com

Lala, Moke, Elida and Fausto ahead? Get used to this in 2026, at least on the Pacific side.

CSU is now forecasting the least active Atlantic hurricane season in 13 years, by ACE index. And yes, it has El Niño's fingerprints all over it.

Atlantic hurricane season quieter from El Niño, CSU says

Colorado State University's forecast team still expects a less active Atlantic hurricane season. But that doesn't mean you should let your guard down.

weather.com

I think this Paris forecast is one reason why "cancel for any reason" travel insurance is $ well spent. 🥵 weather.com/weather/tend...

Hopefully not a case of Yutu deja vu with Typhoon Bavi ahead. (Images: Tropical Tidbits, UW-CIMSS)