I keep looking at former "no-brainer" compounder stocks and seeing that they're down ~50%. Painful.
Good piece of analysis here (based on simulated portfolios using actual share price data) showing how taking profits on winning positions is a toxic strategy.
Superb podcast with Whale Rock Capital founder Alex Sacerdote. If the valuations of Al/tech stocks seem baffling (they do to me), then this is great for understanding why the bulls seemingly pay such hugh multiples.
Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · Episode
open.spotify.com
Move your primary listing to the United States, get yourself a valuation uplift. Like Wise has done. Oh, wait.
Starmer uses that line so favoured by UK net zero proponents: "North Sea oil ... has no discernible impact on the global price of oil and gas." Technically true, but highly disingenuous. Every barrel from the North Sea is more secure, has lower transport costs, and creates jobs/tax revenue.
Tony Blair might not like my plan, but he's wrong: it's changing Britain for the better
A Britain built for all
open.substack.com
Just added a position in Pool Corp.
Xavier MacDuff@xvrmdf.bsky.social · 3mo agoInteresting to see in the Berkshire 13-F that they've sold out of Pool Corp, just as sales growth is inflecting positively. They bought in during mid-2024, when the share price was much higher, and the sales growth severely negative. What was their rationale back then? $BRK $POOL
Good note here on UK healthcare REIT Primary Health Properties plc. (I own it).
Primary Health Properties (LON: PHP)
The NHS’s Landlord Just Got a Lot Bigger
open.substack.com
My Instagram feed is suddenly full of adverts like this for property in the Gulf. Good luck selling those! Note: Not sure how this is being targeted - I've never searched or browsed for this.
Good piece here on the Greggs investment case. (I own it).
The Economics of a Sausage Roll
Everyday indulgences, scaled with discipline, and quietly mispriced.
substack.com
Pattern in the Scottish election is one of Reform helping the SNP to stay in power by splitting the unionist or Conservative vote in a way that denies the nearest challenger a chance of winning.
Along with Edinburgh, St Andrews, and Bearsden (Glasgow), many of the highest income parts of the UK are now Lib Dem strongholds.
Lewis Baston@lewisbaston.bsky.social · 3mo agoIn the three south west London Lib Dem boroughs (Richmond, Kingston, Sutton) they have a combined 149 seats with only 8 for the scattered opposition, no party of which has more than two seats.
Increasingly in the UK, the response to economic problems is not to treat causes, but instead to treat symptoms with price regulation. We have: ⚠️ Minimum wage ⚠️ Energy price cap ⚠️ Rent controls ⚠️ Affordable housing quotas And plans for: ⚠️ Maximum wage controls ⚠️ Food price caps
Very good for seeing Terry's evolution from focused almost exclusively upon consumer staples investing to an embrace of a broad array technology-enabled growth companies across healthcare, payments, software, and data services.
Xavier MacDuff@xvrmdf.bsky.social · 4mo agoLatest reading: "Investing for Growth" by Terry Smith. This is an anthology of his previous writings (annual reports, press articles), so nothing new in here for dedicated Terry followers.
Hiking interest rates in response to a supply-shock driven jump in oil prices is absolutely the perfect recipe for a recession.
Update: I've just added a falling knife to my PA portfolio. Wish me luck. (Entry price: 3,711p)
Xavier MacDuff@xvrmdf.bsky.social · 5mo agoAnother Nick Train special:
It's a cool and still spring day, so there is little wind or solar for the UK, and so we're relying on gas and imports for our electricity generation. Disastrous energy security situation to be in.
Craft brewers dropping like dominoes. Almost zero recovery value for investors/lenders. It was a ZIRP phenomenon.
More than 100 jobs go as brewer Innis & Gunn is bought by Tennent's owner
Innis & Gunn's bars and breweries will close after the company was sold to the C&C Group in a £4.5m deal.
bbc.co.uk
I'm really not impressed by much of the news output from the BBC, but I'm absolutely blown away by Steve Rosenberg's reporting from on the ground in Moscow. Consistently excellent and incredibly brave.
These are actually sensible policies and most people will be quite surprised that we don't do these things already.
"Move your listing to the US", they said. "You'll capture a higher multiple", they said.
The right wing press could be like the dog that caught the car if their calls for Kier Starmer to resign succeed. Any replacement will certainly be more left wing and will have over 3 years in power until the next election.
Pouring one out tonight for Nick Train and Terry Smith, who rode consumer staples all the way down, before rotating into data services stocks, which are now getting smashed on the assumed threat from AI.
Another compounder bro favourite "never sell" stock getting absolutely crushed.
UBS are forecasting that Global Payments will generate $12.25bn of FCF in the 2026-28 period, equal to 58% of market cap, but someone only rate it "neutral", with a 12m price target of $93 (+25% upside). $GPN
a woman with long brown hair is making a funny face with her finger in her hair
ALT: a woman with long brown hair is making a funny face with her finger in her hair
media.tenor.com
Even the Guardian now recognises the £100,000 tax trap represents a serious problem.
On £100k and feeling hard-done-by? It seems absurd – but a cold truth lies beneath | Jason Okundaye
It comes to something when ‘Henrys’ in London worry about money, but that’s the reality of today’s wages and the cost of city living, says Jason Okundaye, a Guardian assistant opinion editor
theguardian.com
Economic growth goes to where the transport connections are: “You’ve got three motorways [M6, 56 and 62]; the west coast mainline; two railways east to west; the ship canal, and two airports."
‘A southern economy in the north’: how Warrington has adapted to change
Good transport links and the quietly booming nuclear sector are helping the Cheshire town to thrive
theguardian.com