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yimmy

@yimmymcbill.bsky.social

trying to learn stats unfortunately through hockey. https://drydan.github.io/

42 Posts40 Follower151 Folgt
yimmy@yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 2w ago

Does anyone (buzzing in the same circles as me) want to team up for a stats project? Just trying to break out of a funk, maybe try something new, nothing ambitious...

Ron Yurko@stat-ron.bsky.social · 4w ago

Enter this year's Carnegie Mellon #SportsAnalytics Conference (Oct 23-24) #ReproducibleResearch Competition! forms.gle/GUXbxGbkkoiq... NEW: Winning authors receive an exclusive invitation to submit to the Journal of Statistics and Data Science in Sports jsds-sports.github.io

yimmy@yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 10mo ago

When forming a draft list: the more limited your prospect evaluations the more "factoring in availability to maximize EV" becomes code for "regularizing towards consensus".

yimmy@yimmymcbill.bsky.social · last yr.

Sealing off this work for now. Popular NHLe models split up estimating league strength and predicting player outcomes. I attempt to do this under one roof in a way that I think is principled… but out of my depth. Am I contributing anything new in the space? Nah.

Formula written in Latex: $$ \text{tp}_{ijt} \sim \mathbf{Poisson}(\text{gp}_{ijt} \times \exp(\text{player}_{is} + \text{league}_{jt} + \text{position}_{jk}))\\ \text{player}_{i,s} = \text{player}_{i,s-1} + \text{age}_{s,k} - \text{age}_{s-1,k} + \epsilon_{i,s}\\ \text{age}_{s,k} \sim \mathbf{N}(2\space\text{age}_{s-1,k} - \text{age}_{s-2,k},\space\sigma_1^2)\\ \text{league}_{jt} \sim \mathbf{N}(\text{league}_{j,t-1},\space\sigma_2^2)\\ \text{player}_{i,0} \sim \mathbf{N}(0,\space\sigma_3^2)\\ \epsilon_{i,s} \sim \mathbf{N}(0,\space\sigma_{s}^2) $$
yimmy@yimmymcbill.bsky.social · last yr.

First go at a Poisson SSM for men's hockey. League str, F/D age curves & individuals modelled as RW1s. 14 leagues dating back to 2013 w/ no skater cutoffs. Schaefer an interesting case this year. Would bump to 3rd in draft given a full season and 1st if last season was punched up reasonably.

Ridge plot ranking the estimated latent talent of NHL prospects. Proceeding list is ordered by model. Number in brackets refers to the NHLs final scouting report ranks. 1. Misa (2), 2. Hagens (3), 3. Martone (6), 4. Schaefer (1), 5. Aitcheson (9), 6. Desnoyers (7), 7. Frondell (1 International), 8. Carbonneau (16), 9. O'Brien (4), 10. Kindel (21), 11. Eklund (2 International), 12. Veilleux (91), 13. Reschny (25), 14. Reid (23), 15. Hensler (12), 16. Zonnon (31), 17. Bear (10).Histogram of posterior mean talents from seasons 2013-2024 on the left. Centered near 0 w/ standard deviation 0.84. Appears bell shaped with a thicker left tail. Histogram of fitted point totals on the right. Big spike near 0, after drop it decays smoothly w/ max at 152.7
yimmy@yimmymcbill.bsky.social · last yr.

PWHL released the 2025 draft eligibility list. Here's some coeffs from a pois reg for a NCAA D1 team level model. Strength of schedule a focus for points based analysis, but most top scorers play tougher games. Wisconsin the kind of super team I wish would declare all at once

A team level offense and defense scatterplot for NCAA D1 Women's Ice Hockey 2024-2025 season. Ranking the conferences by: NEWHA < CHA <= Hockey East < ECAC < WCHA. Wisconsin clearly dominant this year.