"Washington's Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan" - from Mira Rapp-Hooper and me in @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/11/t...

Washington’s Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan

A strategic rethink is needed in an era of U.S. unreliability.

foreignpolicy.com

POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE, SIGNIFYING NOTHING. That's my Trump-Xi take... Few deals. No breakthroughs. But thankfully no US concessions on Taiwan or tech. Hard to call this summit a success, since it didn't really address any US-China structural problems. Yet not a disaster either.

Big thank you to Sal @mercoglianos.bsky.social for hosting this discussion with John Konrad on the (now nuclear!) battleship. I think we'd be better off building subs and smaller ships given the battleship's cost and complexity. But we had a good time, so listen and decide for yourselves:

What's Going on With Shipping (Sal Mercogliano)@mercoglianos.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The Great Battleship Debate | John Konrad of gCaptain & Zach Cooper of AEI 1⃣ Pros & Cons 2⃣A Battleship in the Force Structure? 3⃣Is it the next Revolution in Naval Affairs? 4⃣Does the Red Sea, Black Sea or Strait of Hormuz need a Battleship? 5⃣Can we even build one? Video: youtu.be/cpgEAef91zM

Critical support to @zackcooper.bsky.social

What's Going on With Shipping (Sal Mercogliano)@mercoglianos.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The Great Battleship Debate | John Konrad of gCaptain & Zach Cooper of AEI 1⃣ Pros & Cons 2⃣A Battleship in the Force Structure? 3⃣Is it the next Revolution in Naval Affairs? 4⃣Does the Red Sea, Black Sea or Strait of Hormuz need a Battleship? 5⃣Can we even build one? Video: youtu.be/cpgEAef91zM

This is my (admittedly pessimistic) take on US policy in Asia. We are distracted, divided, and resource constrained. The question now is not whether the US will pivot to Asia, but how far we might pull back. I fear that simply trying to defend the first island chain is not a feasible strategy.

Foreign Affairs@foreignaffairs.com · 6mo ago

@zackcooper.bsky.social discusses Washington’s failed pivot to Asia—and considers what a more realistic regional strategy would look like.

@zackcooper.bsky.social discusses Washington’s failed pivot to Asia—and considers what a more realistic regional strategy would look like.

Asia After America

How U.S. strategy failed—and ceded the advantage to China.

foreignaffairs.com

"The administration is trying so hard to avoid angering Beijing that it is pulling its foreign policy punches as well," Derek Scissors and @zackcooper.bsky.social write. https://wapo.st/4s7saun

Opinion | America first? Not when Trump is dealing with China.

The president’s second-term China policy started out aggressive. That quickly changed.

wapo.st

Welcome to the Trump administration, ladies and gentlemen.

“Without a plan for terminating a war in Taiwan, Washington would risk repeating the pattern of U.S. strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan that many Trump officials critiqued: winning the first battle but losing the war,” argues @zackcooper.bsky.social.

How War in Taiwan Ends

Even if deterrence fails, America could thwart China.

foreignaffairs.com

The team at ChinaFile asked eight of us to assess the state of play in US-China relations and who has the upper hand in the ongoing negotiations. I think it's pretty clear. Beijing is showing its capabilities and biding its time. And it's working. www.chinafile.com/conversation...

I'm just going to leave this here... 🤔 www.aei.org/foreign-and-...

In the last year we have gone from: BEIJING begging WASHINGTON to allow it to buy advanced semiconductors to... WASHINGTON begging BEIJING to allow it to sell advanced semiconductors I give up. 🤦‍♂️

ASIA INSIGHT PODCAST: Zack Cooper (@zackcooper.bsky.social), Bee Yun Jo, and Lavina Lee discuss the sustainability of U.S. extended #deterrence and #nuclear restraint in #Australia, #Japan, and #SouthKorea in light of three trends. www.nbr.org/publication/...

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed. I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization. A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

Is the "Indo-Pacific" dead? 🪦 Today the Pentagon issued a statement labeling the "Asia-Pacific" the priority theater. Coming ahead of the National Defense Strategy release and amidst heightened tensions with India, this will definitely raise some eyebrows!

Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social! www.ft.com/content/47d6...

China, Russia and the remaking of the Eurasian supercontinent

Three books offer a guide to shifting power in the region and what it means for the US and Europe

ft.com

Today was a tough day. Most mornings the last decade my day started with a phone call from Rich Armitage. But not this morning. Rich was a friend, a mentor, and a business partner. He was my biggest supporter (and sometimes my toughest critic). He was a giant. What a life.

🍿

Looking forward to joining this RAND event tomorrow on the US-Japan alliance - great lineup! If you’re in Los Angeles (or want to stream), join us here: www.japanhousela.com/events/rand-...

The U.S.-Japan Alliance Under New Management

This event brings experts together from the U.S. and Japan to explore the perspectives of both sides to contribute to public understanding of the key issues.

japanhousela.com

Delighted to join so many fantastic scholars as part of the Wilson China Fellowship for the coming year. Thanks to the Wilson Center and Carnegie Corporation for bringing together this great group! www.wilsoncenter.org/article/wils...

Wilson Center Announces 2025-26 Wilson China Fellowship Class

wilsoncenter.org

Really useful discussion of the core tensions to Trump's foreign policy strategy.

Zack Cooper@zackcooper.bsky.social · last yr.

Prioritization or Retrenchment? I think this is the central question for the US strategic community today. Here’s my new piece trying to add some historical perspective to this the strategic debate. Read it here: theamericanenterprise.com/the-trump-ad...

Prioritization or Retrenchment? I think this is the central question for the US strategic community today. Here’s my new piece trying to add some historical perspective to this the strategic debate. Read it here: theamericanenterprise.com/the-trump-ad...

Trump’s Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment

The decision to prioritize China or retreat to the Americas is the central tension for Trump's foreign policy team.

theamericanenterprise.com

Today's the day: Tides of Fortune is officially released! I'm so excited to get to share this book with the world after over a decade of work on this project. We've got a video explainer coming soon, and a bunch of launch events, but for now, a few words of thanks...

Today in @ForeignAffairs I preview part of my book, which argues that China's turn toward power projection was both inevitable and badly timed (for Beijing). Here's the short version... [1/5] www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...

China’s Self-Defeating Strategy

Power projection once made empires—now it can undo them.

foreignaffairs.com

One more week until Tides of Fortune is released! Feels good to finally hold a copy in my hand. So now it is real, but whether it is spectacular will be up to others to judge :) yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

What does a second Trump administration mean for Taiwan? My take here for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social: thedispatch.com/article/trum...

Trump’s Predictable Unpredictability on Taiwan

Under Trump 2.0, Taiwan’s fate is uncertain.

thedispatch.com

I frequently get asked how Donald Trump's personal interactions might shape US relationships in Asia over the next four years. Here's my take for RSIS: - Trump prizes "strong" (and conservative) leaders - Alignment with the US is not a precondition www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

Will the Trump team seek unipolarity or embrace multipolarity? Primacists emphasize peace through strength, but prioritizers say US power has declined and we can’t be everywhere. Who will prevail in Trump 2.0? I examine this in a short piece for RSIS: www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

IP25001 | Can America Embrace Multipolarity?

SYNOPSIS Today’s world order can be described as “fragmented multipolarity” — which resembles unipolarity, bipolarity and multipolarity simultaneously — and the United States under incoming president ...

rsis.edu.sg

My thoughts on Joe Biden and his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad U.S. Steel decision… www.aei.org/foreign-and-...

Want to know what the Congress has planned for Asia in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act? Noah Burke and I read all the Asia provisions so you don't have to. Here are 5 things to watch (plus a full list of all Asia-related sections). www.aei.org/foreign-and-...