Zak Derler

@zakderler.bsky.social

PhD Researcher @ Uni Birmingham and Thompson Rivers Uni Wildfire 🔥formerly firefighter with the BC Wildfire Service, MAGMA Lab tech, and sci-comms with Climate Home News + DeSmog UK

British Columbia has now had four consecutive fire seasons with cumulative fire radiative power above the median of the previous 20 years. Although the fire season started late, as of today (August 20), 2026 is already at 5.9x the 2003-2022 median for the same point in the fire season.

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Expect lots of fire activity in central Manitoba and NWRN Ontario over the next week. Lots of out-of-control fires in the region (red and purple dots below), some active already today (GOES-East 3.9 micron band - white & red active fires) and the prec. forecast has little to no rain in the region.

map of canada showing active wildfires  link
https://ciffc.ca/Goes - east mid-ir  band ...image - white and red areas are very active fires
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=full_disk&x=7939&y=1475&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_06&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6ECMWF quantitative prec. forecasts - white areas are expected to receive no prec. scale on the bottom in mm
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-met&rh=2025070412&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

Most recent Sentinel-2 overpass captures the full extent of the western İzmir complex. Originating near Orhanlı on June 29, two separate fires spread more than 13km south in 2 days, driven by northeasterly winds, nearly converging near Ürkmez. Total area burned >10,000 ha. July 2, 2025 09:04 UTC

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Sentinel-2 imagery captured 24 hours ago shows widespread burning originating near Kavakdere and extending south through Orhanlı, Payamlı, and Doğanbey, reaching Ürkmez town and crossing the Kuşadası-Seferihisar highway. Next Sentinel pass expected in 23 hours. Captured at 11:56 TRT, 30 June 2025.

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My parents are currently sheltering on a beach along the coast, waiting this out. They evacuated earlier today as the Western İzmir Province Complex in Türkiye advanced through the hills between Seferihisar, Payamlı, and Ürkmez. Roads closed and power out across the region.

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Updated figure from Jain et al. showing global extreme fire weather trends since 1979. Metrics are global 95th percentile of annual Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and the Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). The trend is clear - we are seeing more extreme fire weather due to warming.

graphs showing fire weather index (FWI), initial spread index (ISI) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) 95th percentile trends 1979 to 2024. Updated from Jain et al. 2022 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01224-1

Area burned for BC is almost 500,000 hectares so far this year. Compared with annual area burned in BC 1950-2024, 2025 is already in 7th place (1950-2025) with much of the fire season ahead of us. The years in red 2017-2025 have more area burned than the years in green (1950-2016).

graph showing annual area burned in BC by year for 1950-2025

First post on here - hey! I’m Zak, a wildland firefighter with the BC Wildfire Service and a former climate science journalist and enviro lab technician. Here’s some snaps from the frontlines, the last two seasons in the Canadian backcountry. Follow for more fire, science, and photography.

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