Achim Zeileis

@zeileis.org

statistics, science, software https://www.zeileis.org/

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #FIFA2026 In Semifinal: #ENGARG #ENG #ARG Probability to advance: 58.2% vs. 41.8% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.4-1.1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 43.9% Draw 26.7% 🇦🇷 29.4% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 12.7%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Semifinal: #FRAESP #FRA #ESP Probability to advance: 51.9% vs. 48.1% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.2-1.2 🇫🇷 37.8% Draw 27.8% 🇪🇸 34.4% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 13.1%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Quarterfinal: #NORENG #NOR #ENG Probability to advance: 30.9% vs. 69.1% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 0.9-1.7 🇳🇴 20.9% Draw 24.3% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 54.8% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Quarterfinal: #ESPBEL #ESP #BEL Probability to advance: 71.9% vs. 28.1% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.6-0.8 🇪🇸 56.8% Draw 25.3% 🇧🇪 17.9% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Quarterfinal: #FRAMAR #FRA #MAR Probability to advance: 72.1% vs. 27.9% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.6-0.8 🇫🇷 57.3% Draw 24.6% 🇲🇦 18.1% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 14.5%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 16: #ARGEGY #ARG #EGY Probability to advance: 77.6% vs. 22.4% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.8-0.7 🇦🇷 63.7% Draw 22.1% 🇪🇬 14.2% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 16: #PORESP #POR #ESP Probability to advance: 44.2% vs. 55.8% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.0-1.2 🇵🇹 30.4% Draw 29.1% 🇪🇸 40.5% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 16: #BRANOR #BRA #NOR Probability to advance: 57.7% vs. 42.3% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.4-1.1 🇧🇷 43.2% Draw 27.2% 🇳🇴 29.6% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 12.8%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 16: #CANMAR #CAN #MAR Probability to advance: 40.6% vs. 59.4% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.0-1.4 🇨🇦 28.2% Draw 27.0% 🇲🇦 44.8% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 12.7%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 32: #AUSEGY #AUS #EGY Probability to advance: 55.0% vs. 45.0% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.2-1.0 🇦🇺 40.0% Draw 28.8% 🇪🇬 31.2% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 13.3%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 32: #ESPAUT #ESP #AUT Probability to advance: 77.6% vs. 22.4% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.7-0.6 🇪🇸 62.9% Draw 23.6% 🇦🇹 13.5% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 16.8%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 32: #ENGCOD #ENG #COD Probability to advance: 80.7% vs. 19.3% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.8-0.6 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 66.9% Draw 21.5% 🇨🇩 11.6% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 15.9%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 32: #CIVNOR #CIV #NOR Probability to advance: 32.4% vs. 67.6% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 0.9-1.6 🇨🇮 21.6% Draw 25.5% 🇳🇴 52.9% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.4%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 In Round of 32: #BRAJPN #BRA #JPN Probability to advance: 66.4% vs. 33.6% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.6-1.0 🇧🇷 52.1% Draw 24.9% 🇯🇵 23.0% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #FIFA2026 In Round of 32: #RSACAN #RSA #CAN Probability to advance: 23.5% vs. 76.5% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 0.8-1.8 🇿🇦 15.2% Draw 22.2% 🇨🇦 62.6% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.6%.

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 using our machine learning ensemble. In Group L: #PANENG #PAN #ENG 🥅 Mean goals: 0.7-2.3 🇵🇦 9.2% Draw 16.4% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 74.4% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-2 with a probability of 13.3%.