Achim Dohmen

@achimdohmen.bsky.social

Skeptiker, Suchmaschinen-Autodidakt, trotz absolutem Gehör nur mittelmäßiger Zuhörer

Green hydrogen as a hedge against gas price shocks? Puh-lease. European gas prices exceeded a €5/kg hydrogen-price-equivalent for only 141 days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a €10/kg price for just 13 days. You don't pay €5-10/kg for 25 years for fear of a spike lasting a few weeks.

Chart showing EU natural gas prices and how often in the last 25 years they have been higher than a price equivalent per unit of heat content (HHV) to a hydrogen price of €5 (3.6% of the time) or €10 (0.3% of the time)

Why did GHG emissions rise? 50% of the increase was from land-use change, primarily due to more fires during El Niño. We expect this to drop in 2025. LUC is also very uncertain. All other main regions, except EU27, with rising emissions in 2024. 2/

A waterfall plot showing 50% of the increase due to land-use change, and emissions increasing in all other regions except EU.

Our new paper updating key metrics in the IPCC is now out, and the news is grim: ⬆️ Human induced warming now at 1.36C ⬆️ Rate of warming now 0.27C / decade ⬆️ Sharp increase in Earth's energy imbalance ⬇️ Remaining 1.5C carbon budget only 130 GtCO2 essd.copernicus.org/...

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.

essd.copernicus.org

Total CO2 emissions are still rising. It is necessary to reduce emissions drastically to zero to stop the temperature increasing. To keep below 1.5C is no longer feasible, but that does not mean give up, but try harder. 7/7

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EU: * Long-term decline of coal: successful EU policy * Decline in natural gas in recent years: Energy prices, Russian aggression * Nuclear power turmoil (France, Germany, Belgium) * Hydropower swings: droughts *Strong renewables growth 5/

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Over the years, quite a few of you have asked me explain the #HydrogenSoufflé thing specifically to Germans, who seem weirdly (and expensively) enamoured of the #HydrogenEconomy. So here's me, doing my best... in German. And no it's not AI, it really is me :-) www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJo3...

Milliardengrab Wasserstoff? 😤 Wer BEZAHLT das!? Michael Liebreich | H2-Strategie | Geladen Podcast

YouTube video by Geladen Batteriepodcast

youtube.com