I've previously done 2026 and 2027 global temperature estimates for the Earth's surface, but a lot of people also seem interested in what will happen in the lower troposphere (TLT). Historically TLT has had a much bigger response to El Niño and La Niña than we see on the surface:

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO). For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.

Jim Hansen and I have had a friendly debate about whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record or not. In a new piece, I explain how we both might end up being right: 2026 is increasingly likely to be the warmest in GISTEMP but second across all six records: www.theclimatebrink....

Take a guess which year the Indian Point nuclear reactors closed.

This is important - Honest Brokers (TM) and their echo chamber will often point to the decreasing global wildfire, but that reflects changing human land use practices. In temperate and boreal forests, climate's role is more clear. See this paper by Cunningham et al. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth - Nature Ecology & Evolution

Analysis of fire radiative power derived from satellite data finds that the frequency of extreme fire events increased 2.2-fold from 2003 to 2023 and that these increases were mostly driven by extreme...

nature.com

The Associated Press@apnews.com · 7d ago

Experts say the world is experiencing two opposing fire trends because of human impact.

Fires in France have now burned over 91,000 acres, by far the most of any year since the satellite record started in 2006. Current area burned is about 34x larger than this date in a typical (median) year:

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com and I revisit the warmth of the 1930s. This seems to be one of the most important denier arguments out there. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/raw-data-w...

Raw Data, Wrong Answers

What happens to the 1930s temperature record after correcting measurement biases and station coverage

theclimatebrink.com

I updated my Climate Dashboard to now include a daily-updating Nino 3.4 region plot (with a ONI / RONI toggle up top): dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso

2026 is on track to be the warmest (~35% chance) or second warmest (~63%) year on record, while 2027 is very likely (92% chance) to be the warmest on record on the back of a growing super El Niño event. For more, check out my new Carbon Brief State of the Climate Q2 update: www.carbonbrief.org/...

State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026 | @zekehausfather.com Read here ➡️ buff.ly/NDJddQS

The claim that "pink elephants cannot fly" is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that pink elephants can fly. 🙄

It's not quite "gobsmackingly bananas" but monster forecasts for the record El Nino brewing the Pacific Ocean get pretty close. Here's what to make of it in my first for @nature.com: 🧪 www.nature.com/articles/d41...

This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’

Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights.

nature.com

A recent viral graph found fewer days in the contiguous US above 95F/100F/105F today than in the 1930s. But the graph is misleading – it fails to correct for changing measurement times and techniques, and overstates regional warmth. I take a deep dive at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....

Following up on @zekehausfather.com post on early 20thC warming, I was surprised how large methane‘s contribution was. Turns out it was swamped after WW2 by faster CO2 emission growth even though CH4 forcing is stronger molecule-for-molecule notesonclimate.substack.com/p/methane-ma...

Methane Mattered More in the Early 20th Century

Zeke Hausfather had an interesting post recently at The Climate Brink on what drove early 20th Century warming, suggesting it was a roughly equal mix of human activity, natural forcings (volcanoes) an...

notesonclimate.substack.com

“next time someone tells you Canada’s fires can be solved by raking the forests, you can point out that the thing filling their sky with smoke is a lightning-struck, drought-primed boreal forest doing what a warming climate is making it do more and more often.” @zekehausfather.com

Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management

Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned

open.substack.com

The Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific has been hovering above 2C for the past week. This is the threshold for a very strong ("super") El Niño event, and it was reached more than a month before the prior record set during 1997/1998:

Canada's boreal forest is roughly the size of Europe (or 4.5x the size of Texas). Most fires are in remote areas far from habitation in that have never had a history of fire suppression or management. And the amount that is burning is directly linked to temperature and rainfall.

Summer 2026 is shaping up to be memorable, but the peak of the current El Niño cycle still lies ahead. Join us next week as @rarohde.bsky.social and @zekehausfather.com share updates from our June 2026 report, and outline what the rest of 2026 holds. Registration required ➡️ tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

Climate change does not cause wildfires, but hot and dry conditions make them much more likely to spread. In Canada, 9 of the 10 worst wildfire years were both dryer and hotter than normal. And these fires are burning in areas that were historically not managed or suppressed.

With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....

My current prediction for 2026 global temperatures (using ERA5) is 1.58C, but year-to-date temperatures are only 1.45C: dashboard.theclimate... This seems like a bit gap, so I thought I'd look at how big a gap there is between year to date and final annual values in past years:

I enjoyed listening to Bill McKibben on Ezra Klein's podcast. Its refreshing to hear a strong case for a future of clean energy abundance and highlight a lot of positive energy trends. That said, there are a few points where I'd add nuance to Bill's arguments. www.nytimes.com/2026...

Why is AC so rare in much of Europe? Well, until recently it simply wasn't hot enough to need it. Here is the average number of days above 30C (86F) for major cities over time:

Folks skeptical of human-driven warming like to point to a period of somewhat less rapid warming from 1900-1945. In a new analysis at TCB, I dig into the different factors driving it, and find that humans, natural factors, and variability all played an important role: www.theclimatebrink....

The global surface temperature record is one of the most iconic figures in climate science. We now have 12 different groups of researchers from the US, UK, EU, Japan, and China (among others) that have calculated it and found nearly identical results:

Fascinating report by Lily Bermal that despite the Trump admin's efforts more than half of carbon reductions under the IRA remain intact, at least for the power sector. This is in part due to continuing cost-competitiveness of solar and wind post-subsidies ceepr.mit.edu/workin...

July ECMWF runs are in and forecast an even more extreme El Niño event than the prior June runs. ENSO3.4 region temperatures reach 3.9C in December, and forecasts are around 0.3C warmer than they were in June.

We are nearly done with the first order draft of the IPCC AR7 report (working group 1). Register to review our work and provide feedback!

IPCC@ipcc.bsky.social · 4w ago

📣 IPCC opens registration for experts to review the First Order Draft of Working Group I contribution to Seventh Assessment Report. The review runs from 10 August until 2 October. Interested experts can register until 25 Sept 2026: https://bit.ly/4vi25cq Read more 🔗 https://bit.ly/WGI7Fod

On this hot fourth of July it is worth reminding folks that its not the sun that's causing global warming. Solar output (as measured by satellites) has been flat over the past 50 years when global temperatures have shot up. Its our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.