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Aidan Milliff

@aidanmilliff.com

Political Scientist

210 Posts1663 Follower 931 Folgt

Noah Nathan @nlnathan.bsky.social · 2w ago

Working on this paper was so fun! Excited that it's now out in the world and I hope you can check it out. It builds on broader agendas on the built environment and how space structures social contact from both Paige and I, w/ more info here: paigebollen.com and nlnathan.mit.edu

Paige Bollen

paigebollen.com

American Political Science Review@apsrjournal.bsky.social · 2w ago

From our FirstView: Vernacular Architecture and Grassroots Urban Politics: How Politics Is Embedded in Residential Design by PAIGE BOLLEN and @nlnathan.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 2w ago

Evergreen.

NERV IRB Coordinator@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 2w ago

I don’t know much about South Asia so I will just say: wow, lotta politics there the past 12 months

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4w ago

I have an unbeatable idea for a PR firm. You pay me $1,000/mo and if Isaac Chotiner calls you, I slap the phone out of your hand.

Isaac Chotiner@ichotiner.bsky.social · 4w ago

New Interview: www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · last mo.

Very cool looking new NBER paper from @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social and Sultan Mehmood on one of the most transformative natural disasters in the history of modern South Asia www.nber.org/papers/w35360

How Climate Shocks Produce Armed Rebellion: The 1970 Bhola Cyclone and the Birth of Bangladesh

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

nber.org

Sean Ehrlich @seandehrlich.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Now that we’re well into summer, I think it’s time to announce here FSU’s polisci dept’s hiring last year. (I meant to do at the end of the year but forgot.) First up, James Gibson, previously of WashU, will be joining us in the fall as the Regent’s Research Professor. This is a huge coup for us.

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 2mo ago

New policy piece on our @bjpols.bsky.social paper with Paolo Bertolotti, Ali Jadbabaie, and Fotini Christia. What do drone strikes do to civilians nearby? The non-lethal effects are larger than advertised irregularwarfare.org/hidden-costs-of-precision-what-drone-strikes-actually-do-to-civilians

Hidden Costs of Precision: What Drone Strikes Actually Do to Civilians

New research using cellphone data from Yemen reveals that U.S. drone strikes cause widespread civilian displacement and communication spikes, even when avoiding casualties. These non-lethal disruption...

irregularwarfare.org

Jacob Ware @jacobware.bsky.social · 2mo ago

"The non-lethal effects of drone strikes have substantial humanitarian and political costs." We are proud to highlight some outstanding new research on drone strikes by @aidanmilliff.com, Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, and Ali Jadbabaie at IWI.

Hidden Costs of Precision: What Drone Strikes Actually Do to Civilians

irregularwarfare.org

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 2mo ago

I also took the opportunity to write more about one of our puzzling findings: Why do we see so much regional variation in Indians' foreign policy attitudes? I toss out some ideas in this blog post: aidanmilliff.com/blog/indian-...

Partisanship, Region, and Variation in Indian Public Opinion – Aidan Milliff

What our new Cambridge Element reveals about how public opinion varies across India’s regions.

aidanmilliff.com

Aidan Milliff@aidanmilliff.com · 2mo ago

@pstaniland.bsky.social I appeared on Grand Tamasha 🎙️ with @milanv.bsky.social to discuss our new book on Indian public opinion. Check out the episode here: grand-tamasha.simplecast.com/episodes/wha... And the book is free to download until June 15: doi.org/10.1017/9781...

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 2mo ago

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 3mo ago

New research in Science from @dominic-rohner.bsky.social and others: USAID cuts caused violent conflict to spike immediately in areas that received the most USAID support and last for months. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence

Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national human...

science.org

Instituto Juan Linz @institute-juanlinz.bsky.social · 3mo ago

📣 The Department of Social Sciences at Universidad Carlos III is recruiting for a fixed-term 2-year position in Political Science. This is a two-year opportunity to conduct research, teach, and and collaborate in a vibrant and interdisciplinary academic environment. More info: lnkd.in/eyVbmPRJ

Visiting Professor in the area of Political Science | UC3M | Social Sciences Department UC3M

📣 The Department of Social Sciences at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid is recruiting a Visiting Professor in Political Science to join its international faculty. This is a two-year opportunity to te...

linkedin.com

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 3mo ago

Super clever idea.

Omar Wasow@owasow.bsky.social · 3mo ago

“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/

Text as Behavior
Text as Behavior published in Political Analysis

by Omar Wasow

Abstract

Text analysis typically focuses on content—such as sentiment or topic—but expression is also a form of effortful action. Building on this insight, I propose using simple features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. This approach treats expression, such as writing, as cognitively, emotionally and temporally “costly” for subjects but inexpensive for researchers. I show basic statistics like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation of quantities of interest, including candidate choice, the probability of turning out to vote and psychological states about which a subject may not be fully aware. Further, these methods can convert nonresponse into informative data; validate survey instruments; serve as mechanism checks; be hard for a subject to “game”; work across different languages and analogize well to real-world situations. In sum, text as behavior can help address a range of issues related to quantifying attitudes and actions.

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 3mo ago

Book Alert! @pstaniland.bsky.social and I have a new Cambridge Element out now — and free to download through May 18. It's the result of nine years of digging through historic survey data on how the Indian public thinks about major powers. Read it here: www.cambridge.org/core/element...

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 3mo ago

Paul Staniland @pstaniland.bsky.social · 3mo ago

New book! @aidanmilliff.com and I spent years tracking down survey data from the late 1950s-2025 on how the Indian public has viewed China, the US, and Russia/USSR. We use the data to explore trends and patterns. Cambridge has made it Open Access until 5/18, so go read for free here: t.co/YtNCz74758

Alyssa Heinze @alyssarheinze.bsky.social · 3mo ago

We are organizing a pre-conference workshop at EPSS on the Politics of South Asia. To present, discuss, or attend, please submit your info by May 13th: forms.gle/pXaKtTLifJAY... Please circulate widely! If questions, contact me, @aliz-toth.bsky.social or @simonchauchard.bsky.social!

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

Watching this made me so unbelievably happy. Wout is one of the best characters in professional sports.

VELO@velo-velo-velo.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Wout Van Aert Takes Dream Paris-Roubaix Victory over Tadej Pogačar Van Aert gets reward after years of bad luck and frustration, outsprinting Tadej Pogačar in Roubaix velodrome.

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

How is this not a threat to kill innocent people?

Bill Kristol@billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Impeach Trump.

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

Operation Names can also be used for peaceful purposes. aidanmilliff.com/post/project...

Project Name Generator | Aidan Milliff

Develop secret code names for your projects, just like the pros (claim to)!

aidanmilliff.com

November Kelly@postoctobrist.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The Enthusiast’s Guide to Military Operation Names: AMERICA: drink nine jack and cokes and throw these darts at the 9/11 Memorial Wall of Portentous Adjectives. Feastables Presents Operation Enduring Hubris

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

[Claude.md that just says “fear me”]

Will Lowe@conjugateprior.org · 4mo ago

Now is the time for posting thoughtful discussions of the role of LLMs in academia. I don't have one of those. But Machiavelli does.

CHAPTER XXIII.
HOW FLATTERERS SHOULD BE AVOIDED

I do not wish to leave out an important branch of this subject, for it is a danger from which princes are with difficulty preserved, unless they are very careful and discriminating. It is that of flatterers, of whom courts are full, because men are so self-complacent in their own attairs, and in a way so deceived in them, that they are preserved with difficulty from this pest, and if they wish to defend themselves they run the danger of falling into contempt. Because there is no other way of guarding oneself from flatterers except letting men understand that to tell you the truth does not offend you; but when every one may tell you the truth, respect for you abates.

Therefore a wise prince ought to hold a third course by choosing the wise men in his state, and giving to them only the liberty of speaking the truth to him, and then only of those things of which he inquires, and of none others; but he ought to question them upon everything, and listen to their opinions, and afterwards form his own conclusions. With these councillors, separately and collectively, he ought to carry himself in such a way that each of them should know that, the more freely he shall speak, the more he shall be preferred; outside of these, he should listen to no one, pursue the thing resolved on, and be steadfast in his resolutions. He who does otherwise is either overthrown by flatterers, or is so often changed by varying opinions that he falls into contempt.

[...]

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 4mo ago

Now is the time for posting thoughtful discussions of the role of LLMs in academia. I don't have one of those. But Machiavelli does.

A prince, therefore, ought always to take counsel, but only when he wishes and not when others wish; he ought rather to discourage every one from offering advice unless he asks it; but, however, he ought to be a constant inquirer, and afterwards a patient listener concerning the things of which he inquired; also, on learning that any one, on any consideration, has not told him the truth, he should let his anger be felt.

And if there are some who think that a prince who conveys an impression of his wisdom is not so through his own ability, but through the good advisers that he has around him, beyond doubt they are deceived, because this is an axiom which never fails: that a prince who is not wise himself will never take good advice, unless by chance he has yielded his affairs entirely to one person who happens to be a very prudent man. In this case indeed he may be well governed, but it would not be for long, because such a governor would in a short time take away his state from him.

But if a prince who is not inexperienced should take counsel from more than one he will never get united counsels, nor will he know how to unite them. Each of the counsellors will think of his own interests, and the prince will not know how to control them or to see through them. And they are not to be found otherwise, because men will always prove untrue to you unless they are kept honest by constraint. Therefore it must be inferred that good counsels, whencesoever they come, are born of the wisdom of the prince, and not the wisdom of the prince from good counsels.

Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 4mo ago

It would be useful if the NYT explicitly stated that the pilot, if captured, would be a POW, that there are laws governing how POWs can be treated, that respect for international law on war shapes how the enemy approaches it, and this is why the US conduct of this illegal war has been so dangerous.

Missing Airman Raises Concerns That Iran Could Gain Leverage Over the U.S.

nytimes.com

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 4mo ago

If I read this reporting correctly, NSF is preparing to shut down SBE (social, behavioral, economic sciences) *in anticipation* of the FY27 budget, despite Congressional instructions that no directorate receive more than a 5% cut in FY26.

Dan Garisto@dangaristo.bsky.social · 4mo ago

BREAKING: In response to huge cuts in Trump's budget request, NSF is shuttering its SBE directorate. Staff will be transferred to other parts of the agency and "grants that align with Administration priorities" will be maintained. That & more w/ @maxkozlov.bsky.social & @edwrdchen.bsky.social

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

It was worth a shot.

Claude code terminal readout:

▐▛███▜▌ Claude Code v2.1.87
▝▜█████▛▘ Sonnet 4.6 · Claude Pro
▘▘ ▝▝ /workspace

❯ sudo open strait of hormuz

● That's not a package I have in my repositories, and geopolitics is outside
my $PATH.

If you have an actual task for me, I'm ready.

─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
❯

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

Destroying civilian infrastructure in war is wrong, and probably against the Law of Armed Conflict www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/o...

Opinion | America Is Abandoning Morality

nytimes.com

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

Astute point in the linked paper (Hathaway with @azmatzahra.bsky.social) about "mistakes" in war: If you don't change procedures to prevent them from happening again, in what way are they really "mistakes"?

Oona Hathaway@oonahathaway.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The U.S. hit another school, together with a sports hall, killing and injuring many civilians. Even if it was a "mistake," it could still be a war crime if the strike was taken recklessly. Read more in "'Mistakes' in War": papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/w...

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

Me after I vibecoded a task manager that just eats tasks.

Matt Blackwell@mattblackwell.bsky.social · 4mo ago

mariozechner.at/posts/2026-0...

Text from linked article “There's a much more important difference between clanker and hu-man. A human is a bottleneck. A human cannot shit out 20,000 lines of code in a few hours. Even if the human creates such booboos at high frequency, there's only so many booboos the human can introduce in a codebase per day. The booboos will compound at a very slow rate.
Usually, if the booboo pain gets too big, the human, who hates pain, will spend some time fixing up the booboos. Or the human gets fired and someone else fixes up the booboos. So the pain goes away.
With an orchestrated army of agents, there is no bottleneck, no human pain. These tiny little harmless booboos suddenly compound at a rate that's unsustainable. You have removed yourself from the loop, so you don't even know that all the innocent booboos have formed a monster of a codebase. You only feel the pain when it's too late.

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 4mo ago

TBH people are taken aback by how much a *political science* grad degree is "I Hope You Like Matrices." I turned out to really dig it, but I don't think I knew what I was signing up for...

Benjamin Pope@benjaminpope.bsky.social · 4mo ago

the actual core content of any such degree is I Hope You Like Matrices but I think people feel like it's all going to be Advanced Talking to ChatGPT and when these degrees really get underway it's going to be a structural challenge for the universities to manage this contradiction

Aidan Milliff @aidanmilliff.com · 5mo ago

Intentionally targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime in *some* cases. Russian officials were indicted by the ICC in 2024 for strikes targeting Ukraine's electrical grid ysph.yale.edu/news-article...

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 5mo ago

“Life is becoming scarier every day.” President Trump’s threat to strike power plants in Iran, which could plunge much of the country of 90 million people into darkness, has set off widespread fear and anxiety among Iranians at home and abroad. Read more: nyti.ms/4rSvEzf