Alex Rubalcava

@alexrubalcava.bsky.social

Managing Partner at Amplify LA. Formerly founder of Stage Venture Partners. Pre-seed investor in audacious AI & software startups in manufacturing, aerospace & defense, robotics, health care, fintech, logistics, and data-as-a-service.

Jobs # 1, 2, and 3 for any PM are risk management. The peak to trough decline in the NASDAQ over the last 40 days was about 12%. Anyone so concentrated in the momo names down 50% plus had no business operating with any leverage. Anyone allocating to him has no one to blame but themselves.

A portco just got a term sheet with 4X participating preferred! This startup is growing nicely, has plenty of cash, and is not in distress. Offering them a TS like this immediately causes us to tell all founders we know to stay away from these guys forever.

I just attended a dinner of 20+ VCs. We were all asked our opinion of SpaceX. Everyone said buy, buy for a pop, or hold. Except me. I said sell it short till it’s down 90%. The reevaluate. We will see who was right.

We should have known all along. The order of operations for this year's trillion dollar IPOs will be based on company quality. The first: the dumpster fire trying to jump the line The second: A great company The third: The real prize

No politician this century will have as much fun as the next governor of California. The state is about to experience a tsunami of revenue from the current crop of IPOs. There will be funding for every project, every priority, and every constituency.

One of my investors called me tonight because his wirehouse broker is trying to sell him a late stage private fund with SpaceX shares in it. He can just wait three weeks and decide if he wants to invest directly in the company with no fees and costs when it’s publicly traded.

If you go from $TSMC to $NVDA to the hyperscalers & neoclouds, and from there to the foundation models and AI applications, you find gross margins of 50% to 75% the whole way up. No one has found a complement to commoditize.

After the pandemic, many of my favorite restaurants in LA closed. So a few years ago, when scheduling business meals, I started insisting that the other person pick the location, so I can learn about great new spots. Today I had a great lunch meeting at a place I would never have found otherwise.

Absolutely bonkers footage of Ukrainian soldiers shooting down Russian drones in prop planes with shotguns. Not ai, came from an official Ukrainian account and verified by the WSJ.