Conor Sen
@conorsen.bsky.social
Housing, markets, economy. Buc-ee’s fan. 📍Atlanta, GA
Seeing some of the $SPCX capex promises for 2027 last night, I think this only ends if markets/investors take the money away.
An old fintwit friend called me to ask what I thought about AI. And my current framework is: -No idea where it’ll be in 3-5 years -Not knowledgeable enough to track the day to day model horserace and tech spec implications -The best I can do is decide if capex is threatened within 9-12 months (no).
Wage growth has likely bottomed absent a new shock to labor demand (which is the opposite of what looks to be happening at the moment).
Where I’m at on things: -Strong demand for AI capex for at least 9-12 months minimum -That gives enough time for the lagging cyclical/rate-sensitive industries (housing and even office) to inflect higher -That means the labor market will be solid -Which means consumption is fine
Official data was released today, and after adjusting for inflation, American office construction has fallen to the lowest level since 2011 It's down nearly 60% since the onset of the pandemic and 15% over the last year alone
At some point consensus will fully accept that the labor market bottomed late last year after slowly cooling for years in response to pandemic over-hiring.
In 2023 (the number would be higher now), 53% of American students were back in school by mid-August.
Dale Waffle@darkbrownwaffles.bsky.social · 2d agoThat's not true.
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent)."
The biggest coastal media bias is not recognizing that the first half of August is back to school for most of the country, and post-Labor Day is the outlier.
Idle thought of the morning is we now have a bonds/hyperscalers/housing trade and a semis/memory trade and those two trades should be somewhat negatively correlated.
Feels like a big cultural transition point — the cover band at the neighborhood pool back to school party is playing ‘90s rock instead of ‘70s rock.
Starting to think through the ripples of a 2027 MLB lockout where games are missed (starting to seem probable unfortunately). Seems like an opportunity for MLS and the WNBA depending upon how long it goes on. Some venue opportunities for Banana Ball too.
Has anyone published a chart of the forward FCF yield of the S&P 500? Would be curious to see what that looks like.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 3d agoGOLDMAN DESK: “.. this simply plots expectations for S&P forward EPS. you tend to see this rate of acceleration coming out of big holes (e.g. $LEH or COVID). I’m not saying this boom is lost on the market, but it continues to strike me as something that you shouldn’t pick a serious fight with ..”
There’s something like a “responsibilities treadmill” in middle-age where if the quantity of your responsibilities increases by 75% and you maintain a 85% completion ratio you have the same feeling of falling short even though you got done 75% more.
I have a theory that swing voters in metro Atlanta are college grads, whereas swing voters in northern states are non-college grads, and that leads to pretty meaningful differences in why someone like Ossoff positions himself differently than northern Dems.
Skubal went to the Dodgers? The Dodgers realize the other owners collectively want to screw them in the next CBA, right?
My channel checks today suggest the squishy/dumpling supply chain is starting to loosen up a bit.
End of July 10-year treasury yield two years before the next Presidential election: 1990: 8.36% 1994: 7.12% 1998: 5.50% 2002: 4.51% 2006: 4.99% 2010: 2.94% 2014: 2.58% 2018: 2.96% 2022: 2.67% (this surprised me) 2026: 4.73%
YoY growth rate in spending on information processing equipment. Genuinely curious to see how this works out:
Interesting idea to pick someone who really wanted to be Fed Chair but had no interest in economic forecasting or monetary policy.
he’s cultivated a work environment where his colleagues feel empowered to share their thoughts (with their local journalist)!