Ali Ahmadi
@aliahmadi.bsky.social
Geoeconomics and Sanctions Policy. Consultant. Executive Fellow Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Trump cant TACO when Israel is calling the shots. Israel is attacking Iran's electricity grid right now before Trump's "deadline" has even arrived.
US bond rates are spiking on inflation fears while the US decifit spending is exploding.
I still think oil markets are being delusional. These prices basically mean that the market still thinks this war will conclude shortly, with oil infrastructure largely intact, leaving markets to factor in only elevated medium-term risk.
Within the next 48 hours, we are going to reach near the top of the escalation ladder. All oil/gas export terminals and water desalination facilities in the region could be destroyed, with the timeline for their reconstitution measured in years rather than weeks.
Britain, which is supporting the war, seems most fucked of all by it. - BP advises the gov to prepare for energy rationing. - ING predicts 5% inflation over the year - IMF bailout request being considered.
Actual photo of the White House put out of the Japanese PM at the state dinner. This lady is so weird.
Leqaa Kordia has been released from ICE detention after a year under lockdown. The 33-year-old Palestinian woman and Columbia University student was arrested during Pro-Palestine protests on campus. Read her account of her time under lockdown: zeteo.com/p/leqaa-kord...
EXCLUSIVE: I’m the Palestinian Who Has Been in ICE Detention for Almost a Year
Don't forget us on International Women's Day, writes Leqaa Kordia.
zeteo.com
To be clear, this is based on a satirical article that Newt thought was real and endorsed unironically.
Five Minute Macro@fiveminutemacro.bsky.social · 5mo agoEveryone is Twelve theory remains undefeated.
Here. He was on the street in broad daylight a couple hours ago. DM me for my account info. I want to be paid in Chinese Yuen. The dollar is unstable.
Savchenko Volodymyr@savchenkoua.bsky.social · 5mo ago🇺🇸❗️🇮🇷 The U.S. is offering $10 million for information about Iranian leaders.
I do not see how European democracies can survive being complicit in the war on Iran plus the escalation of the cost of living crisis this war causes. This is the perfect storm to bring the far right into power.
US: Oil ships should be "brave" and go through the Strait of Hormuz Ships: Does the US Navy want sail alongside us? US: Are you insane???
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5mo agoQ: You have said US military has aerial and naval superiority over Iran, yet we're not escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. How did you not plan for this? HEGSETH: We planned for it. We recognize it. Um, because ultimately, we want to do it sequentially in a way that makes the most sense
I love the idea that *this* US government, which has been nabbing landscapers and five year olds knows where Iranian sleeper cells are but just hasn’t gotten around to doing anything about it yet.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5mo agoDOOCY: If Iran tries to hit us back, have you been briefed about how many Iran sleeper cells there could be inside the US right now? TRUMP: I have been, and a lot of people came in through Biden with his stupid open border. But we know where most of them are.
Hey CENTCOM you’ve been planning for this for decades, you wanna dust off that OPLAN for Hormuz now buddy? CENTCOM:
We've been through this with the Red Sea crisis. There arent enough military ships, It requires putting them way too close to Iran's shores, and insurance likely still wont cover.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 5mo agoEVERCORE: “.. the Navy reportedly has been turning down requests for escorts thus far. “.. If Iranian missiles remain operational, the geography of the Strait would significantly constrain U.S. Navy vessels’ reaction time to deploy countermeasures, making an escort operation extremely high risk.”
Ukraine Ministry of Defence is pissed. Its only gotten 600 Patriot missiles over 4 yrs and the US used 800 in the first 3 days of the Iran war.
Iranian Missile "In memory of the victims of Epstein Island"
Long-time buddies Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were out for a pleasant van drive in Oklahoma when, all of a sudden, their lives would change.
Jacqueline Sweet@jsweetli.bsky.social · 5mo agoWhy...did CNN do this
Oh no, is "comedy" about to become "legal" on here too?
Louise Matsakis@lmatsakis.bsky.social · 5mo agoSCOOP from @knibbs.bsky.social: Bluesky CEO Jay Graber is stepping down. Venture capitalist Toni Schneider will take over as interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent replacement www.wired.com/story/bluesk...
I'm starting to think commodities investors might be gigantic morons. Just a hunch.
War-barnacle Lindsey Graham narrates to @wsj.com's Josh Dawsey how he affixed himself to Trump, manipulated him into attacking Iran: www.wsj.com/politics/pol... Apparently wants to bomb Lebanon next:
I like to look back on feted FP experts takes and smile as they still get fawned on for their insights at Aspen
