Amund Vik

@amundvik.bsky.social

Energy policy, campaigns, elections and geopolitics. https://open.substack.com/pub/amundvik Eurasiagroup | Data Sciences

Very interesting times in Uk politics! One thing that I struggle with, is how the Burnham result can be used as indicative of party results under him, when he was effectively also running against core aspects of Labour itself? Surely this particular coalition must be hard to replicate as incumbent?

Kuwaiti supertanker ‘Al Salmi’ was hit by #Iran, sitting fully laden offshore Dubai. No one was hurt and no #oil spilt. The incident confirms worries Iran would target the dozens of tankers sitting in the Gulf (most of them full of oil and chemicals), not just vessels exiting the #StraitOfHormuz

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Må si jeg er overrasket over at de som er primus motor for Stadt skipstunnel enda ikke har kjent sin besøkelsestid i gulfen. Skulle tro betalingsvilligheten for skipstunnel er vel så stor i Hormuz nå som på Vestlandet.

#China + #India #oil imports flatlined in 2025 (14.78 mbpd/'25 vs 14.75 mbpd/'24). China imports even dipped, from an average of 10.06 mbpd in '24 to 9.98 mbpd in '25. With output growing, a supply overhang has been building. That helps explain why crude hasn't jumped more even amid #Iran risks.

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Natural gas is no longer expensive in Europe. That should also soon feed into lower wholesale electricity prices. See below a few details from my briefings. Let me know if you'd like to receive it.

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The combination of high inflation, low growth and relatively feeble centrist political response has been devastating for politics in many places. Cause for optimism with Carneys win in Canada and Jonas in Norway though.

Henning Gloystein@hgloy.bsky.social · 11mo ago

#Inflation has been a populist enabler in rich countries. It's outpaced #GDP growth for years, so most people have become poorer. It's toxic, esp since the super-rich get richer from equity booms/tax breaks. Gvts must urgently get growth over inflation to prevent a further rise of anger politics.

#Oil intensity is falling in big economies (incl #China). It explains why oil demand growth is flatlining. Though there's a big outlier in #SouthKorea, which has taken on petrochemical/refining capacity as others have cut back, overal oil intensity has been declining for 20 years in big economies.

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The global share of combustion engines has plunged from 90% in 2019 to not much more than 50% in 2025. With #EV sales (incl. hybrids) to hit 20+ mln in 2025 we’ve reached levels forecast by the IEA’s most bullish scenario for 2030 in 2019-which was largely dismissed esp by the #oil industry.

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EU #gas stocks will be 90% full by 1 Nov - assuming similar daily injections btw 1Jul-1Aug & btw 1Jun-1Jul and then half current avg daily injection btw 1 Sep-1 Nov. That would support EU move to allow loosening of pre-winter storage mandates and instead let normal market conditions ensure supply.

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