Seeing lots of hysterical takes regarding Ceuta. Yes, the EU response has clearly been wanting. But the incentives for unity if Trump engineers a Greenland crisis would be much stronger. Defence threats tend to pull member states together, whereas migration has repeatedly divided them

Marine Le Pen’s legal resurrection as presidential candidate has given her, as expected, a boost in the opinion polls. An IFOP poll published last night for Le Figaro gave her 36% in Round One next April – her highest ever score. 1/

I basically agree with Mij's assessment. Unfortunately, it also means that she is now the basecase

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · 4w ago

On France: Despite what opinion polls say, Le Pen is and always has been a far more formidable opponent for the centre - Philippe, Attal etc - than Bardella. She has experience and a political density that he did not. She is not basecase but the EU should be worried by recent developments in France

Has Trump not spurred greater European strategic autonomy? PS: We never get to decide the headlines of the op-eds we write

C🅰️S Ⓜ️UDDE@casmudde.bsky.social · 4w ago

On France: Despite what opinion polls say, Le Pen is and always has been a far more formidable opponent for the centre - Philippe, Attal etc - than Bardella. She has experience and a political density that he did not. She is not basecase but the EU should be worried by recent developments in France

‼️🇫🇷 So Le Pen will run and will appeal. She thinks that suspends the prison sebtence. But if she loses her final appeal she would have to wear the tag in the heat of the campaign next year - which she said she wouldn't do

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · 4w ago

🇫🇷‼️Massive news. Le Pen *can* run in French presidential elections, if she wants to

‼️🇫🇷 So Le Pen will run and will appeal. She thinks that suspends the prison sebtence. But if she loses her final appeal she would have to wear the tag in the heat of the campaign next year - which she said she wouldn't do

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · 4w ago

🇫🇷‼️Massive news. Le Pen *can* run in French presidential elections, if she wants to

So Farage's plan is Trump-like: Clear his name in court of public opinion and persuade voters the disciplinary process is part of a media/establishment plot to stop Reform winning power

Why do UK and French politics always blow up on the same days? Farage at 2pm, Le Pen at 8pm..

🇫🇷‼️Massive news. Le Pen *can* run in French presidential elections, if she wants to

🇫🇷‼️Massive news. Le Pen *can* run in French presidential elections, if she wants to

Back in Paris for today's massively consequential court decision that will determine whether the RN leader M. Le Pen can stand in next year's French presidential election. It is no exaggeration to say that today's court decision will effectively launch the French presidential election campaign 1/

Back in Paris for today's massively consequential court decision that will determine whether the RN leader M. Le Pen can stand in next year's French presidential election. It is no exaggeration to say that today's court decision will effectively launch the French presidential election campaign 1/

Important reminder from @mijrahman.bsky.social that the EU isn't the EU the UK left. Where I'd gently take issue is the implication that UK interests & "instincts" are unchanged. It could, depressingly, be true - but a strategicially astute UK might recognize that its interests have, also, moved on.

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · last mo.

The rejoin debate is focussed on the wrong things - whether opt outs from € and Schengen could be secured. Not whether it makes sense to join the EU of 2026 which is different in character and DNA than the club we left ten years ago. My latest for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The rejoin debate is focussed on the wrong things - whether opt outs from € and Schengen could be secured. Not whether it makes sense to join the EU of 2026 which is different in character and DNA than the club we left ten years ago. My latest for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The EU that the UK left no longer exists | Mujtaba Rahman

Andy Burnham’s rise has stoked talk of the terms for a future British return – but this is the wrong question, says political risk analyst Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

"The real question is no longer whether Britain could recover its old opt-outs and budget rebates, but whether it is prepared to join a union that is more fiscally integrated, more interventionist, more geopolitical and...markedly less British than the one it left." @mijrahman.bsky.social

The EU that the UK left no longer exists | Mujtaba Rahman

Andy Burnham’s rise has stoked talk of the terms for a future British return – but this is the wrong question, says political risk analyst Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

Astute and useful piece. And I suspect many of us would absolutely back a ‘Join’ proposition on the basis outlined by @mijrahman.bsky.social

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · last mo.

The rejoin debate is focussed on the wrong things - whether opt outs from € and Schengen could be secured. Not whether it makes sense to join the EU of 2026 which is different in character and DNA than the club we left ten years ago. My latest for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The rejoin debate is focussed on the wrong things - whether opt outs from € and Schengen could be secured. Not whether it makes sense to join the EU of 2026 which is different in character and DNA than the club we left ten years ago. My latest for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The EU that the UK left no longer exists | Mujtaba Rahman

Andy Burnham’s rise has stoked talk of the terms for a future British return – but this is the wrong question, says political risk analyst Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

One of the lessons of the last two years is that Labour urgently needs to stop being afraid of its own shadow. Burnham should appoint whoever he thinks would be the best Chancellor and throw his authority behind them. The Daily Mail will try to kill them anyway. So just govern.

Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · last mo.

Hard not to regard this as a classic example of a pre-emptive campaign by certain sectors, along with their media sympathisers, to discourage a new prime minister from appointing someone who might damage their interests in the long and short term. And it will almost certainly work.

A pleasure to host Morgan McSweeney @eurasiagroup.net London office today for a fascinating discussion on UK politics 🇬🇧🇪🇺🤵🏽

If Burnham is in place by 17 July, then 5 days into the job and he will be leading talks with the EU at the 22 July reset summit

Next April/May, Europe will confront an incredibly consequential election: the race for the French Presidency I've written a long piece for foreign affairs analysing why a far-right Le Pen/Bardella victory is now possible, & what it would mean for France, the EU & the world Link in comments below

Bottom line: Healey believes the defence investment plan in its current form would mean Starmer would break his pledge to Nato to boost UK defence spending to 3.5%/5% of GDP by 2035 Not a good look for the UK on the international stage

Remarkable quote from Healey: “I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations, and could make our country less safe.”

Incredible open letter by President Zelensky to Putin. Worth reading in full. Ukraine's strategy: pressing its advantage to try and get Putin to have a more serious conversation regarding a ceasefire and end to the war 1/2

The prospect of Ukraine joining the EU could help ward off future Russian invasion, but EU membership wouldn't just be to Ukraine's benefit. Our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social explains how Ukraine could help make Europe a military and agricultural superpower: @theguardian.com

The EU should fast-track Ukraine’s membership of the club – it has the most to gain | Mujtaba Rahman

Many EU governments oppose it, but the strategic advantages of swift admission could be immense, says political risk analyst Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

My latest piece for @theguardian.com Ukraine's accession to the EU will arguably benefit the EU even more than Ukraine

European leaders need to rediscover their imagination and fast track Ukraine's EU membership. The challenges are substantial but the strategic gains immense. My piece for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/world/commen...

The EU should fast-track Ukraine’s membership of the club – it has the most to gain | Mujtaba Rahman

Many EU governments oppose it, but the strategic advantages of swift admission could be immense, says political risk analyst Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

Ok so don't borrow from them then, that's fine. Do it all with taxes, knock yerself out

Good piece by @jdportes.bsky.social Message to investors: Worry less about whether Burnham or whoever replaces Starmer is more left wing. Look at the credibility of their entire economic program. www.ft.com/content/7235...

Three ways a new Labour leader could change the politics of growth

The UK needs to confront the policies that have made us poorer

ft.com