Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
General Director, European Trade Union Institute @etui.bsky.social Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining Deutschland-Versteher Vietnam
Useful overview of interventionist economic policies in western Europe after 1945. #TakeBackControl
Andrei Sterescu@andreisterescu.bsky.social · 5d agoFrom the 1980s onwards, neoliberal reforms weakened many of the institutions that governments had used to steer and organise production. Industrial policy never disappeared, but much of the institutional capacity that had once supported it did. A 🧵. open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
The evidence from the US, where over more than a decade some states have raised the minimum wage while others have not, is clear. - Statutory MW hikes are effective in raising the wages of the low paid. - No substantial job losses. - Adjustment via higher productivity, prices &/or lower profits
Arin Dube@arindube.bsky.social · 2mo agoWe've been running an unprecedented natural experiment running for a decade and half. 30 states have raised their minimum wages. 20 have not. What happened to pay? What happened to jobs? The good news is that it's pretty easy to figure out now. substack.com/home/post/p-...
www.socialeurope.eu/burnhams-bre... There has been much analysis by British commentators on the Andy Burnham phenomenon. Here is an interesting take from a continental social-democratic perspective, by Laszlo Andor. 1/2
Burnham’s Break with Thatcherism Matters for All Europe
Britain’s new Prime Minister blames four decades of neoliberalism for national malaise — and continental progressives should pay attention.
socialeurope.eu
Update The 30-year US bond rate hits a 19 year record (FT). With Trump having undermined the credibility of monetary and fiscal policy, while stocking inflation with a war of choice and tariff policy he cannot end, the US fiscal situation risks getting out of hand sooner rather than later.
One factor often left out of discussions of US outperformance v-a-v the EU is US fiscal policy. Which is unsustainable. US deficit is over 6% of GDP as it has been for years. With interest rates >4.5%, a $2 trn deficit adds ~0.1 trillion $ to interest payments every year. Summinks gotta give.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2w agoA reminder that we’re running $2 trillion deficits. Here it is in visual form: (via B of A)
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... In picking concern about forced labour as his latest justification for sweeping tariffs, Trump reaches new heights of chutzpah. The USA has steadfastly refused, for almost a 100 years, to sign up to ILO convention 29 on forced labour. And for "good" reason. 1/2
US hits 60 countries with new duties as Donald Trump rebuilds tariff wall
Washington pins measures on forced labour probe after Supreme Court struck down blanket levies
giftarticle.ft.com
EU gas prices are back almost to the high after the attack on Iran. Ceterum censeo: - our economy is being hit by the actions of a country that cares not a fig for Europe's interests, but which policymakers continues to treat as an ally - we're not doing nearly enough to end fossil-fuel dependence
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2w agoEuropean gas, 52-week high.
Trumpand his henchmen know they are going down to a big 2defeat in the midterms. Hence the: - constant attacks on the legitimacy of the electoral process, most recently the claim of Chinese interference, - ground preparation to justify declaring a state of emergency 👇
Ken Klippenstein@kenklippenstein.bsky.social · 3w ago🚨 White House press release: “far-left extremism will be treated with the same seriousness and ferocity the world has long reserved for jihadist terrorism.”
On a highway to hell led by a canal of insecure, neurotic man-babies. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The wars we need to fight are against climate change and habitat destruction, poverty and extreme inequality, disease, ignorance. As long as these 1930s throwbacks have power we will lose them.
US troops to get testosterone treatment to make them strong
Announcement from defence secretary Pete Hegseth comes amid focus on low sperm count and virility on American right
giftarticle.ft.com
Not really new, but worth reading. Leaves out the environmental/emissions issue. Certainly the median is preferable to the mean; indeed, from a Rawlsian perspective one should focus on the worst off. For a more detailed Germany-USA comparison see: www.imk-boeckler.de/de/faust-det...
Comparing living and working conditions - Germany outperforms the United States
Das Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) hat es sich zum Ziel gesetzt, der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Perspektive in der ökonomischen Forschung und in der wirtschaftspolitischen Diskus...
imk-boeckler.de
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 3mo agoI have done the workings on whether Europe is doing as well as the USA after all, once you tot up all the social ills risked by the typical US citizen. open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...
It is not surprising that the US-Iran war has flared up again. The logic sketched out a month ago 👇 remains implacable. Iran will only stop using control of the Strait as a lever if it has credible security guarantees. But they are hard to provide short of allowing it a nuclear option.
Andrew Watt@andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 2mo agoContinued exchanges of fire between the US and Iran. Hormuz remains blocked, with all its negative consequences. Meanwhile Trump repeats that a deal is imminent and the Strait will be unblocked: the Iranians just need time to face up to the fact they have no choice. Yet the reality is.. Short🧵 1/8
What @achimtruger.bsky.social analyses here for Germany is a problem across the EU. Instead of a calm discussion of how to ensure Europe's collective security under new conditions, member states are opening the fiscal taps for defence. This will squeeze needed public investment and social spending.
Achim Truger@achimtruger.bsky.social · 4w agoDas Scheitern der Schuldenbremsen-Kommission ist fatal: "Weil die Unionsvertreter blockierten, werden zukünftig die Verteidigungsausgaben voll gegen Sozialstaat und öffentliche Investitionen ausgespielt werden." Mein aktueller Gastbeitrag im @freitag.de!👇 www.freitag.de/autoren/der-...
An important, but not the only reason, why the multiplier on Germany and Europe's defence spending is low is simply that much of the hardware is imported. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... And the main source is the US. The country on which the defence splurge should make us less dependent. 🤔
Germany strikes deal to buy US Tomahawk missiles, Merz says
Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he reached agreement with Washington during Nato summit in Ankara
giftarticle.ft.com
Effective measures to protect workers exposed to excessive heat at work are becoming increasingly urgent, as the effects of climate change intensify. www.theguardian.com/environment/... The draft EU directive mentioned here was drawn up by @etui.bsky.social colleagues @enricosomaeffat.bsky.social
Unions in Europe press for new worker protections to counter heat stress
Climate crisis prompts calls for workplace temperature limits and rights to heat breaks and adjusted working hours
theguardian.com
Evidence of the effectiveness of price stabilisation policies from Austria. A cut in VAT on food passed on almost 1:1 to prices, cutting the inflation rate by 0.15 % points. The impact on low-income households, where food is a > share of spending, considerably greater. @isabellamweber.bsky.social
Markus Marterbauer@markusmarterbauer.bsky.social · last mo.Die vollständige Weitergabe der Mehrwertsteuersenkung ist bei allen Produktgruppen von Brot über Nudeln und Gemüse bis Obst sichtbar. Der dämpfende Effekt auf die Juli-Inflationsrate beträgt laut OeNB 0,15 Prozentpunkte.
www.etui.org/sites/defaul... At @etui.bsky.social we have an attractive opening for someone with strong quantitative skills and a track record in analysis at the intersection of ecological, economic and social issues.
etui.org
The problem with econ conferences: too much maths and Greek letters. The problem with social-science conferences: too many words. Many too many.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... There have been some positive knock-on effects of Trump's adventurism, such as a boost to electric vehicle sales. But former UN climate envoy Carney's abandonment of Canada's emissions targets underlines that such effects are often negative. 1/3
Canada unveils plans for new oil pipeline to break dependence on US
Project to supply Asia with 1mn barrels per day is part of push to reduce over-reliance on US amid trade hostilities
giftarticle.ft.com
Nobody exposes the lie that is right-wing nationalist "proworkerism" like Donald Trump. He tells his supporters their woes are due to immigrants and wasteful government. Meanwhile he sells them inherently worthless tokens for hundreds of millions of dollars. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
www.politico.eu/article/eu-a... Being European can be frustrating. Solutions that are a no brainer from an EU perspective regularly get smashed on the rocks of national interests. It is therefore worth looking at trade policy, which is an exclusive competence of the EU Commission. 1/2
EU and China reopen trade talks as Brussels hardens its stance
EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič meets China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao as the EU prepares new trade defenses and pushes Beijing to rein in industry overcapacity.
politico.eu
Saw a young guy in the supermarket wearing a German team shirt. The name on the back? Beckenbauer Seems quite symbolic of a pervasive mood of Früher war alles besser! Ze good old days.
Europe currently faces a trilemma between: - achieving strategic autonomy from the USA - avoiding pooling its defence procurement and deployment - meaningfully cutting welfare spending//raising taxes It must choose two out of three. 1/4
Europe currently faces a trilemma between: - achieving strategic autonomy from the USA - avoiding pooling its defence procurement and deployment - meaningfully cutting welfare spending//raising taxes It must choose two out of three. 1/4
It is absurd to believe the EU can meet the challenges of today's world with a central budget of little more than 1% of GDP. The only viable solution to this unseemly and reality-denying ritual every 7 years is to agree on new "own resources" for the EU and sensible rules for an EU fiscal capacity.
Dave Keating@davekeating.substack.com · 2mo agoThe #EUCO 🇪🇺summit has just ended, and northern leaders have used their closing press conferences to bash the Commission's proposed EU budget increase. They keep tasking the EU with new things to do, but then they refuse to pay for it.
A reasonable outcome. Europe needs to defend its interests and stop China eviscerating key industries. But it does not need a trade war with China and must start from the recognition that Europe itself has a substantial current account surplus and must play its part in reducing global imbalances.
Dave Keating@davekeating.substack.com · 2mo agoGood morning from the #EUCO 🇪🇺summit as we start day 2. Last night over a very late dinner the leaders had a discussion about economic imbalances with #China and tasked 🇪🇺President von der Leyen to do something about it.
The EU in a nutshell. Tiny central budget (~1% GDP). Huge needs, hence proposal to raise modest additional "own resources" (EU taxes). But: Poland blocks ETS Sweden holds up tobacco levy Italy, Malta reject a gambling levy. And almost all MS block taxing large companies share.google/dO9Pts55aJU7...
Commission seeks new ideas after EU-wide tax deadlock | Euractiv
Discussions on the 'own resources' have stalled at the technical level due to deep disagreements among capitals, Euractiv has learned
share.google
Great pleasure to share this important discussion of Europe's demographics and the implications for workers by my ETUI colleague @jerenollenberger.bsky.social!
Jeremiah Nollenberger@jerenollenberger.bsky.social · 2mo agoThe greying of our society is no longer a future projection—it is a demographic reality both in the EU and globally. I am super happy the @greeneujournal.bsky.social just published a short piece I wrote on this as part of their new issue. 1/
The ECB's 1/4-point rate hike was widely expected. That doesn't mean it was right. It will do nothing to address the causes of the current inflation. It will add, slightly, to the forces constraining growth and worsening the fiscal position. It is doubtless intended as a signal... 1/2
The question I ask myself twice a week. Besides the railway specifics, the article illustrates how ordoliberalism has hobbled Germany. Sensible public investment crowds in private investment, rather than crowding it out. Private inv't is much more sensitive to demand than to interest-rates. #Keynes
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 2mo agoCan Germany make its trains run on time? ft.trib.al/ybHSnOg
Continued exchanges of fire between the US and Iran. Hormuz remains blocked, with all its negative consequences. Meanwhile Trump repeats that a deal is imminent and the Strait will be unblocked: the Iranians just need time to face up to the fact they have no choice. Yet the reality is.. Short🧵 1/8