Weak or wise? Putin desperately needs a 2nd mobilization. His provocations attempt to trigger an accident. He’ll then fudge the accident and sell it Russians as their motherland being under attack, and start a mobilization. Resolute defense neutralizes that. m.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...

Three Russian Fighters Just Entered Estonian Air Space. What's Putin's Plan?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

m.youtube.com

Igor Sushko@igorsushko.bsky.social · 11mo ago

After Foreign Minister Sikorski openly said that Poland's response to a Russian missile attack will be limited to shooting down the missiles over their own Polish territory, Poland should fully expect a Russian missile attack. People don't understand how weak this speech actually was.

Spain went all out. There’s a smarter way when dealing with a prickly US president: Buy F-35, just much less of them. Build the fleet around non-US aircraft. Use few F-35 to supply situational awareness to the fleet I expect many more countries to quietly leave distance from the IS that way

Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 12mo ago

Spain decides not to buy US F-35 jets because of fears of US political reliability. There will be more of this on.ft.com/41tL4zH via @FT

Here we go. Renowned journalists begin to be apologetic about expressing criticism, and doing so referring to “patriotism”. I think of all Russian voices criticizing the war prefixing with how patriotic they are.

ian bremmer@ianbremmer.com · 12mo ago

i believe that it is still patriotic to criticize your country when it makes a mistake. and i have a huge problem with the trump administration pulling a west point appointee, solely because of her role in securing the (free and fair) 2020 election results. youtu.be/tcfTJ8WnuFE?...

- 15% effective rate of tariffs. Was previously ~3%. - EU commits to buy US energy 250$ billion/y for 3 years . 2024 purchases = 65$B. Hardly realistic - $600 billion investment expected from a mix of public and private sector, mostly private. - a high-level agreement with many points still open

Trump and von der Leyen announce US-EU trade deal

Agreement includes 15% baseline tariff for most EU exports to US after deal reached at Scotland crunch talks

theguardian.com

It’s hard to understand calls for EU expansion, when the EU’s biggest Achilles heel is its inability to get its current members to agree, ending up in paralysis or crawling speed on the vast majority of issues.

Noah Barkin@noahbarkin.bsky.social · last yr.

Excellent FT piece on how the EU succumbed to Trump’s trade extortion: “Rather than join Canada and China with instant retaliation and inflict pain on US consumers and businesses, the EU — hamstrung by divergent views among its member states — chose to take the pain” on.ft.com/471fKvG

Design and early production were surely already complete. German financing scaled it up to small scale production. Possibly know how too. Producing in 🇺🇦 enables lower cost, higher speed, and avoids criticism of “escalation”

(((Tendar)))@tendar.bsky.social · last yr.

German Major General Christian Freuding reports that the German-Ukrainian Initiative, which was launched only in May and which includes the financing of long-range weapon systems, will result in the first delivery by the end of this month.

@anderspucknielsen.dk expectation somewhat proved right. - defensive systems confirmed in good numbers (17 patriots) - offensive systems left unspecified and conditional - no sanctions imposed, merely promised in 50 days time behind a bunch of further vague conditionals Hardly a shocking package.

Anders Puck Nielsen@anderspucknielsen.dk · last yr.

I hope to be wrong, but I am ready to be underwhelmed by Trump's announcements about Russia.

If European countries don’t buy Franco-Italian air defense systems now that 1) mistrust in the US reliability is at its peak 2) their European system is at its newest — it’s hard to believe it ever will grow any autonomy. SAMP-T is cheaper, more flexible and easier to operate than PATRIOT, too.

Europe’s air defence dilemma: can Franco-Italian system rival US Patriot?

New SAMP-T system on display at Paris Air Show seeks buyers amid Europe’s efforts to re-arm

ft.com

What better time than now to bring money to the US, finance the country and indirectly vote for Trumps version of America?

Robin Brooks@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · last yr.

European tourist arrivals into the US remain very strong. In fact, in one case - Italy - arrivals posted a new all-time high in April 2025. The popular narrative is that Europe is affronted by the US. Travel data tell a different story. Today's substack: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/strong-for...

If your response to this video is, “That’s what I voted for”— Fuck you. Fuck you very much. You’re heartless.

Many debate whether Donald Trump is a Russian agent. Whether he will be rewarded or not — he is clearly an agent in the sense that he is acting evidently and consistently to advance Russias interests.

Republicans Against Trumpism@rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social · last yr.

Donald Trump asked the Senate to delay consideration of the Russia sanctions bill, according to Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker. Because of course he did

This shouldn’t be celebrated. It’s unfair towards herself, and not sustainable anyway. And it legitimizes the cuts by preventing the problems they caused from showing. As tough as it is, the only way is to let the worst happen.

Kelly Hereid@kellyhereid.bsky.social · last yr.

Yet another dedicated scientist and public servant, this time from US Fish and Wildlife, showing up unpaid after she was fired to volunteer to protect an endangered species. What are we even doing here. 🎁 link: 🧪

MAGA folks, are you seeing this?

Republicans Against Trumpism@rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social · last yr.

Even the Russian propaganda outlet RT is mocking Trump’s weakness. They know he’ll crawl back to Putin by morning.

For the increasing number of people claiming that Trump is sincerely concerned about the death toll for his Ukraine policy — and this includes the great @general-ben.bsky.social : just look at his policy on the Gaza war.

“Brutal for Trump” misses the point a bit. Trump’s point with these deeds is not to get courts to approve them. It’s to get them normalized in the eyes of public opinion. At which point, courts become the boogie men. And it’s working.

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · last yr.

Stunning. May was brutal for Trump in federal court: 96% loss rate ⚖️. Even GOP-appointed judges have ruled against the admin 72% of the time. District courts are doing their job defending the Constitution. Soon the Supreme Court may be the only court unwilling to defend the rule of law.

A bitter truth: Putin wages war because the West showed weakness, not resistance. For 20 years, he met words—not consequences. Now Ukraine burns. And if he’s not stopped there, he won’t stop at all. Appeasement isn’t peace. It’s permission. Stand with Ukraine 🇺🇦—before tyranny spreads.

Every western statesman visiting Putin is a gift to legitimize him. A gift given by someone who represents the people of his nation and willingly disregards Putin’s Bucha and his ongoing theft of Ukrainian children. Slovakians, what do you think of this?

Anton Gerashchenko@antongerashchenko.bsky.social · last yr.

Fico has made it to Moscow. Top news on Russian Telegram channels at the moment.

Here’s how the EU is considering stopping dark fleet: - offer all tankers to voluntarily get checked - if a vessel doesn’t, it automatically ends on the sanction list A creative workaround to the right of “innocent passage”, bent by Russia risking environmental catastrophe. Source: Sergei Guriev

Robin Brooks@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · last yr.

The US, UK and EU sanctioned many shadow fleet oil tankers in Jan. '25. Our tracking of shadow fleet oil tankers shows activity has gone to zero among sanctioned ships in the Baltic. Putin and his friends don't want you to know this, but sanctions are highly effective. @econharris.bsky.social

Frankly it’s shocking that nearly half of Americans approve of what he has done so far. The margins are thin enough to reverse shortly before midterms with the right story. One wonders how far can Trump really go before Americans decisively say stop. There seems to be a long way still.

Republicans Against Trumpism@rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump’s agenda is deeply unpopular. Republican members of Congress, especially in swing states, need to wake up and start speaking out, or risk losing their seats next year.

For those who take elon musk at his word as being a “free speech absolutist”

Peter Stefanovic@peterstefanovic.bsky.social · last yr.

Three users on X who feuded with Elon Musk in December saw their reach on the social platform practically vanish overnight, The New York Times found, signaling that Musk or others at the company have the power to punish critics and that they may be willing to use it www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

One of the the best things you can do as a European citizen this year: Buy European. Whenever you have the option. Even when it costs you a little more. Even when you takes a little compromise. It’s an investment into your own future.

Very insightful. Pragmatic, actionable plans like this is exactly what the EU needs to move forward.

Center for European Policy Analysis@cepa.org · last yr.

“Europe’s gas market remains fragmented and disrupted by an East-West divide, despite expectations that EU member states should operate within a single market governed by shared rules and codes.”

Trump “pausing” tariffs: Most commentators claim he capitulated. More likely: this was planned. Similar to the shock withdrawal of weapons and intel to Ukraine. For few days. Trump still blind to the devastation to US economy long-term. Stocks down + Treasuries yield up clear sign of this damage

We have been reading of many such successes over the last weeks. Great. But what’s their impact in aggregate? How much of Russia’s government revenue are they cutting? How long does it take Russia to repair them? What other noteworthy implications?

(((Tendar)))@tendar.bsky.social · 2y ago

Another gas facility in Russia is burning. The gas processing plant in Astrakhan has been struck by at least three UAVs according TG channel Uniannet.

EU and US have been incredibly shy with the situation in Georgia. Hardly good considering the delicate position that Russia is taking.

Gocha Gogsadze@gochag.bsky.social · 2y ago

🆘 #TerrorInGeorgia 🇬🇪 I urge everyone to wake up to the horrifying torture of Nika Katsia, a Georgian journalist and outspoken protester, at the hands of the Georgian Dream regime. 1/4

True, and concerning. Social media has polarized western society, one little post at a time over years. LLM assistants are bound to have the same degree of influence, and lacks the possibility to identify and lack malicious actors that social media partly offered.

Do you care about the increasing Cold War exercised by Russia against European countries? Then @auonsson.bsky.social will be an important asset in your follows. S/He occasionally engages too, with facts and respect 👏

auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social)

Pseudonymous osint. Enjoy data, ships, planes, maps, simplicity, connectedness. Also, Baltics. Judge me by my tweets. http://mastodon.world/@auonsson backup 🇸🇪

auonsson.bsky.social

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social · 2y ago

Washington Post has again managed to find anonymous sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea. They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it. They also have a named source, within military intel, completely contradicting their headline. Nice work again WaPo.

Another very informative review by @pboyle.bsky.social this time on deportations - the effects of immigration on the US economy - what can be expected on GDP and tax revenue if more/less immigrants are deported I learned a lot from Patrick’s podcasts over the years m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sfbf...

How Would Mass Deportations Affect the US Economy?

YouTube video by Patrick Boyle

m.youtube.com

Within large companies there’s often an individual who creates chaos — usually due to incompetence + ego issues. In that context, the best strategy is to keep them busy in their own soup, while ensuring that their endeavors are unworkable. They eventually wear out and move on to another endeavor.

Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 2y ago

For no reason that he can articulate, Trump has triggered a crisis in Denmark www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

This has been done in the EU’s largest metropolitan area. If they can do it, your city can do it. It’s only a matter of wanting it. A decade after the fact everyone will be happy. Just like it’s been for bans to indoor smoking.

Brent Toderian@brenttoderian.bsky.social · 2y ago

Air pollution has dropped significantly in #Paris in the last 15 years. Mayor @annehidalgo.bsky.social’s leadership has traded car space for green space, safe bike space, kid space.. and traded pollution for people. Good trade.