Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
Writing for The Economist—mostly on the US economy, with occasional forays elsewhere. Recreational Britain-watcher. Previous lives in macro investing and polling. Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
How doomed are sovereign AI efforts? What can third countries do to escape total dependence on the US and China? My bid: diffusion, deregulation and data centres, as I lay out in a leader in this week's @economist.com. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
How to make AI safe—and lessen dependence on America and China
State-backed efforts to catch up with frontier models are doomed
economist.com
New leader from me in @economist.com—on Trump Accounts, which launched last weekend. $1,000 per baby won't solve America's inequality. Deficit-funded stock-buying is hardly sound fiscal policy. But... beneath all that gold is the seed of a good idea. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
Two cheers for Trump Accounts
The grubby scheme contains the seeds of a good idea
economist.com
IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG? Scandalously, in some circles @economist.com has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices wrong. But in general, how do we do? I threw LLMs at 7,000 leaders to find out: Link: www.economist.com/interactive...
AMERICA SHOULD NOT IMPRISON FRONTIER AI I have a leader in @economist.com this week on the lessons from Fable, for America and everybody else. A few core ideas in a thread below, and you can read the full leader here: www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
America should not imprison frontier AI
Fable is free. But the technology desperately needs better regulations
economist.com
Another insightful post from @archiehall.bsky.social about when and why to use AI - separating out the different tasks one might use it for. notes.archie-hall.com/p/drawing-th...
Drawing the line on AI writing, literally
A short visual follow-up to yesterday's post
notes.archie-hall.com
Very much enjoyed and agreed with this pair of pieces by @archiehall.bsky.social. notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wri...
Am I a writing Luddite?
We should be ruder about AI prose
notes.archie-hall.com
A short follow-up post from me where I try, literally, to draw out where I think our boundaries for AI writing should be. I'd argue the two main dimensions that matter are: (a) how involved is AI, (b) is the writing mechanical or ideas-led? Read here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/drawing-th...
What might a positive world full of AI writing look like? I had a go speculating in my (otherwise v negative) piece on the issue. — Infinitely nested, constantly-updating AI summaries — To lodge an idea in the discourse, persuade AI it's new Full piece: notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wr...
Great piece by @archiehall.bsky.social. Writing implies reading. Reading takes time and effort. Why should someone read content that they frankly could have asked an LLM to spit out themselves? notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wri...
Am I an AI Luddite?
We should be ruder about AI prose
notes.archie-hall.com
AM I A WRITING LUDDITE? New post from me about AI writing: why I think we should be ruder about it, and how I might be wrong. Read to the bottom for as clear-cut a case as I can make that the "Productive State" report was largely AI-written. notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wr...
ROBOTS, MEET VOTERS I wrote this week's cover leader for @TheEconomist on the politics of AI and how to navigate the coming backlash. Alongside our blood-curdling cover illustration, there were a few big ideas I wanted to get across. (🧵) www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
The AI backlash is only getting started
Here is how to deal with it
economist.com
I took a swing at the grand transatlantic spat over GDP figures, and whether Europe really is falling behind America, in this week's @economist.com. Read on to see if I succeeded in sneaking in enough World Cup sugar to make the PPP-accounting medicine go down. www.economist.com/finance-and...
Europe buys the future, America builds it
Does that matter? A high-stakes transatlantic spat has erupted over GDP figures
economist.com
Ahead of Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, I argue in @economist.com that his case for dovishness has collapsed. At some point, he will need to deliver the bad news to the president. You can read my leader explaining why here: www.economist.com/leaders/202...
The Federal Reserve must soon give Donald Trump bad news
Kevin Warsh, the unlucky new chairman, has seen his case for lower interest rates disintegrate
economist.com
Worth noting that if you take seriously--as I think one should--the idea that low net migration means the breakeven rate for payrolls in near zero, today's figures are even more stonking...
I wrote this week's cover leader for @economist.com, on what we're calling Gen-Z socialism. We argue that the me-first interventionism the new crop of socialists are offering is novel and worth taking seriously. For now, market liberals are losing the argument. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
How to fight back against Gen-Z socialism
The me-first doctrine is a threat to prosperity
economist.com
Over the past year, American economic policy has been chaotic and self-destructive (think: tariffs, migration shutdown). Yet growth has been... fine. What gives? The answer, I argue in @economist.com, is that America could be doing even better. www.economist.com/leaders/202...
American growth could be even better
MAGAnomics shows the world what not to do. But also what America keeps getting right
economist.com
America could have had a gangbusters 2025... were it not for a frenzy of bad policymaking. Careful work by my colleague Alex Domash recovering the "MAGA tax" on America's economy. He puts it at 0.7-0.8% of 2025 GDP growth. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
A PRODUCTIVITY MIRACLE? Rich-world productivity growth was pronounced dead in the 2010s (or at least sleeping). But in America it has been decisively revived, I write in this week's @economist.com. Elsewhere in the world, rather less so. Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Something of a Fed extravaganza in @economist.com this week. To start, my leader: "How Kevin Warsh could save the Federal Reserve". Warsh wasn't our chair pick. But one version of him may be just the man for this moment of political crisis for the Fed. www.economist.com/leaders/202...
Lot of commentators are very miffed that global trade has resolutely failed to collapse several times in recent years. Governments even more so, not least the one in the US. A world they clearly don't understand if they think economies past were more resilient.
My leader in this week's Economist, arguing that America's moment of bipartisan tax-cutting mania is an error: — Economically, it worsens the looming fiscal crunch — Politically, pulling voters out of the tax base kills incentives to care about good government www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
America will come to regret its war on taxes
Lately, Democrats have joined the charge
economist.com
Reminds me of when, in December 2022, we polled on what the Government had done well since being elected. At the time it was spending c. £10 billion a month subsidising everyone's energy bills, and yet:
Have been waiting almost two years for the right article to smuggle this fact into. (From my leader on America's misguided war on taxes: economist.com/leaders/2026...)
AMERICA'S TAX REVOLT Republicans and Democrats alike seem to be ditching the idea that most Americans ought to be paying very much in taxes at all. Increasingly, voters seem to agree. For Tax Day, I wrote about this troubling development for @economist.com. www.economist.com/united-stat...
THE CRUELLEST YEAR Twelve months after "Liberation Day", I wrote for @economist.com on American manufacturers—supposedly the trade war's winners. Even they are sceptical: chaos, instability and paperwork have swamped the tariffs' competitiveness boost. www.economist.com/united-stat...
UNITED PETROSTATES I look at how the oil shock will hit the US economy in @economist.com today—one that now exports 2/3 as much energy as Saudi Arabia. Growth will still sag, and the poorest get squeezed. But America is well-positioned to weather the hit www.economist.com/finance-and...
NOT SO "K" America's "K-shaped" economy has become conventional wisdom—the idea that spending is booming for the rich and slumping for the rest, leaving growth top-heavy and precarious. Only one problem: as I write in @economist.com, it is probably wrong. 🔗: www.economist.com/finance-and...
First, AI kills the lawyers. Thoughtful, analytical and depressing piece from @archiehall.bsky.social. notes.archie-hall.com/p/britains-a...
Britain's AI bear case
A handful of troublingly plausible ways the next decade could not go Britain's way
notes.archie-hall.com
BRITAIN'S AI BEAR CASE What happens, if AI takes off, to an economy that is... ... highly dependent on exporting professional services? ... Too energy-scarce to build many data centres? ... Less dynamic than ever? I work through those questions here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/britains-...
