Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
Writing for The Economist—mostly on the US economy, with occasional forays elsewhere. Recreational Britain-watcher. Previous lives in macro investing and polling. Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
“Do not ‘let it rip’” I walk through why the no-rules approach to AI has now run its course in a new leader for @economist.com. Whatever its merits several years ago, ‘let it rip’ is now a dead end—politically infeasible and intellectually unserious. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
A no-rules approach to AI is mad politics and worse policy
Do not let it rip
economist.com
Friday Follow: Five Substacks that deserve to be better known. - notes.archie-hall.com - @archiehall.bsky.social - writing.ersatzben.com - Ben Johnson - soumayakeynes.substack.com - @soumayakeynes.ft.com - www.neilobrien.co.uk - Neil O'Brien - willorrewing.substack.com - Will Orr-Ewing
New @economist.com leader from me on the perils of AI writing—and why readers, not writers, are the victims to worry most about. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
New @economist.com leader from me on housing markets, and the rate shock coming if bond yields stay high. Why house prices may be in trouble economist.com/leaders/2026...
Why house prices may be in trouble
In a big serving of bad news, there are crumbs of comfort
economist.com
All the debate about MPs' "second jobs", and yet we don't really have consensus as to what the purpose of their first one is
Archie Hall@archiehall.bsky.social · 3w ago1/ This is bottom-up, not top-down, and reflects choices MPs (and their staff) are making. I spoke to several. Reactions ran the gamut from denial to defence: "for every half hour saved on speechwriting, 'that is another 30 minutes we can put into supporting my constituents.'"
My latest for @economist.com: AI writing is taking over politics. 10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada. Link: www.economist.com/britain/202... And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
"Time to hike" New @economist.com leader on why Warsh should raise rates next week. The economic case is solid (high inflation, solid jobs market), but the institutional case clinches it—Warsh has the chance to put worries about his independence to bed. www.economist.com/leaders/202...
New column reflecting on Jackson Hole and the state of central banking — Warsh did enough, surpassing low expectations — Rogoff was more interesting. He declared victory against "macro woke 1" (secular stagnation = low rates), warned of "macro woke 2" (AI fixes all) www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Central banking has a forbidding future
But Kevin Warsh has bought himself time
economist.com
"Kevin Warsh tries being a normal central banker" A few initial Jackson Hole impressions, written w/ my colleague Alex Domash. Some quick notes in thread. But you can read our full piece here: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"America will regret Scott Bessent's bond-market misadventures" New @economist.com leader from me, on whether America has just taken a first, tentative step towards a politicised Treasury market and financial repression. You can read here: www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
America will regret Scott Bessent’s bond-market misadventures
But expect them to continue, so long as government debt stays high
economist.com
Underrated story: the Trump admin seeming to use Fannie and Freddie to push mortgage spreads down. (Some of the recent decline also reflects falling bond vol, of course.) Discussed more here: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Weekend read from me on the shenanigans on the Treasury market—and the problems Scott Bessent is dumping on Kevin Warsh Link: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Is Scott Bessent the Fed chair Donald Trump always wanted?
But his effort to talk bond yields lower is likely to fail
economist.com
BRITAIN WOULD BE BONKERS TO DITCH PALANTIR New @economist.com leader from me on Palantir. I most wanted to highlight its critics' troubling illiberalism—many seem far too blasé letting politics determine which businesses governments buy from. You can read it here: www.economist.com/leaders/202...
How doomed are sovereign AI efforts? What can third countries do to escape total dependence on the US and China? My bid: diffusion, deregulation and data centres, as I lay out in a leader in this week's @economist.com. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
How to make AI safe—and lessen dependence on America and China
State-backed efforts to catch up with frontier models are doomed
economist.com
New leader from me in @economist.com—on Trump Accounts, which launched last weekend. $1,000 per baby won't solve America's inequality. Deficit-funded stock-buying is hardly sound fiscal policy. But... beneath all that gold is the seed of a good idea. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
Two cheers for Trump Accounts
The grubby scheme contains the seeds of a good idea
economist.com
IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG? Scandalously, in some circles @economist.com has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices wrong. But in general, how do we do? I threw LLMs at 7,000 leaders to find out: Link: www.economist.com/interactive...
AMERICA SHOULD NOT IMPRISON FRONTIER AI I have a leader in @economist.com this week on the lessons from Fable, for America and everybody else. A few core ideas in a thread below, and you can read the full leader here: www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
America should not imprison frontier AI
Fable is free. But the technology desperately needs better regulations
economist.com
Another insightful post from @archiehall.bsky.social about when and why to use AI - separating out the different tasks one might use it for. notes.archie-hall.com/p/drawing-th...
Drawing the line on AI writing, literally
A short visual follow-up to yesterday's post
notes.archie-hall.com
Very much enjoyed and agreed with this pair of pieces by @archiehall.bsky.social. notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wri...
Am I a writing Luddite?
We should be ruder about AI prose
notes.archie-hall.com
A short follow-up post from me where I try, literally, to draw out where I think our boundaries for AI writing should be. I'd argue the two main dimensions that matter are: (a) how involved is AI, (b) is the writing mechanical or ideas-led? Read here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/drawing-th...
What might a positive world full of AI writing look like? I had a go speculating in my (otherwise v negative) piece on the issue. — Infinitely nested, constantly-updating AI summaries — To lodge an idea in the discourse, persuade AI it's new Full piece: notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wr...
Great piece by @archiehall.bsky.social. Writing implies reading. Reading takes time and effort. Why should someone read content that they frankly could have asked an LLM to spit out themselves? notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wri...
Am I an AI Luddite?
We should be ruder about AI prose
notes.archie-hall.com
AM I A WRITING LUDDITE? New post from me about AI writing: why I think we should be ruder about it, and how I might be wrong. Read to the bottom for as clear-cut a case as I can make that the "Productive State" report was largely AI-written. notes.archie-hall.com/p/am-i-a-wr...
ROBOTS, MEET VOTERS I wrote this week's cover leader for @TheEconomist on the politics of AI and how to navigate the coming backlash. Alongside our blood-curdling cover illustration, there were a few big ideas I wanted to get across. (🧵) www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
The AI backlash is only getting started
Here is how to deal with it
economist.com
I took a swing at the grand transatlantic spat over GDP figures, and whether Europe really is falling behind America, in this week's @economist.com. Read on to see if I succeeded in sneaking in enough World Cup sugar to make the PPP-accounting medicine go down. www.economist.com/finance-and...
Europe buys the future, America builds it
Does that matter? A high-stakes transatlantic spat has erupted over GDP figures
economist.com
Ahead of Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, I argue in @economist.com that his case for dovishness has collapsed. At some point, he will need to deliver the bad news to the president. You can read my leader explaining why here: www.economist.com/leaders/202...
The Federal Reserve must soon give Donald Trump bad news
Kevin Warsh, the unlucky new chairman, has seen his case for lower interest rates disintegrate
economist.com
Worth noting that if you take seriously--as I think one should--the idea that low net migration means the breakeven rate for payrolls in near zero, today's figures are even more stonking...
I wrote this week's cover leader for @economist.com, on what we're calling Gen-Z socialism. We argue that the me-first interventionism the new crop of socialists are offering is novel and worth taking seriously. For now, market liberals are losing the argument. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
How to fight back against Gen-Z socialism
The me-first doctrine is a threat to prosperity
economist.com
Over the past year, American economic policy has been chaotic and self-destructive (think: tariffs, migration shutdown). Yet growth has been... fine. What gives? The answer, I argue in @economist.com, is that America could be doing even better. www.economist.com/leaders/202...
American growth could be even better
MAGAnomics shows the world what not to do. But also what America keeps getting right
economist.com
