Atlantic Council
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Turkeyʼs multifaceted approach to diversifying its gas supplies away from Russia, including by buying from the US and Azerbaijan, may finally be paying off. İlker Sezer explores the benefits of this new strategy:
Turning to Azerbaijani gas and US LNG, Turkey seeks to break its reliance on Russian energy
Turkey’s efforts to diversify its gas away from Russia, including purchases from the US and Azerbaijan, may finally be paying off.
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“What Trump should not overlook now that he’s back in Washington is that Europe and Ukraine represent his greatest remaining chance at a foreign-policy legacy,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPoints. Read more ⤵️
Trump should seize upon his NATO-Ukraine moment
Europe and Ukraine represent the US president’s greatest remaining chance at a foreign-policy legacy.
atlanticcouncil.org
Erecting a comprehensive missile defense shield over the entire United States would make nuclear war more likely, not less, writes Ankit Panda in an issue brief. Protecting select zones, he argues, is less de-stabilizing and more credible and cost effective.
For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome
While the second Trump administration's instincts on Golden Dome correctly diagnose a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a sized-up, almost-exquisite comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription.
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The recent killing of ISIS second-in-command, Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, came shortly after the release of the White House’s new Counterterrorism Strategy. Members of the Atlantic Council Counterterrorism Project break down the document and offer recommendations:
The future of US counterterrorism: An expert assessment of the 2026 White House strategy
Members of the Atlantic Council Counterterrorism Project dig into the Trump administration's new US Counterterrorism Strategy.
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The Trump administration has made a dizzying array of force posture decisions this month, raising doubts about the United States’ deeper commitment to the NATO alliance, write Daniel Fried and Torrey Taussig. Read more ⤵️
Washington's latest force posture moves have Europeans feeling whiplash
The announcement on sending US troops to Poland didn't stop Washington's other force posture decisions from generating concern among NATO allies.
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President Trump’s upcoming face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is “essential for managing tensions,” writes Melanie Hart. “But the visit is unlikely to produce a true reset.”
Five outcomes that would make Trump's trip to China a success
Though surprises are always possible, the meetings in Beijing will likely be defined by a narrow set of deliverables.
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The shadow fleet: there's good news and bad news. - Baltic Sea countries are inspecting, boarding and detaining more shadow vessels. - But shadow vessels are becoming more brazen. www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... The latest @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats report. No paywall.
The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever
The shadow fleet—a collection of vessels transporting sanctioned cargo outside the official shipping system—has grown to encompass more than a thousand oil tankers globally.
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In my latest @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social article, I preview Shakhtar Donetsk’s semi-final matches in the UEFA Conference League, arguing how this Ukrainian football club can provide Ukrainian soldiers and fans with a reason to cheer amid an ongoing war www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
Shakhtar Donetsk gives Ukraine’s war-weary football fans reason to cheer
Ukrainian football club Shakhtar Donetsk will face English team Crystal Palace next week in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League semifinal knowing that a win could provide a much-needed moral...
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Co-authored this piece with @brittgronemeyer.bsky.social in the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social ‘Discourses’ on how the IRI’s role in providing to Russia Shahed-style drones used in attacks on civilians could lead to accessory liability for individuals in Iran. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/t...
The Islamic Republic of Iran should be held accountable for aiding Russia's crimes against Ukraine
To deter the proliferation of Iranian drones, global courts and governments should pursue accountability for violating international law in supporting Russia's actions in Ukraine.
atlanticcouncil.org
Iran-backed Iraqi militias have escalated attacks across Iraq in recent months, hitting US, Iraqi, and civilian targets, adding to growing instability, writes Victoria Taylor. Read more:
Iran-backed militias are destroying Iraq. Baghdad must take them on.
Iraq cannot continue like this, with drones and rockets menacing the country, and militias assassinating and kidnapping activists and journalists.
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Iran is operating a “toll booth” in the Strait of Hormuz. But how are Tehran and oil buyers actually settling their payments? Drawing on new GeoEconomics Center research, Alisha Chhangani unpacks the policy levers Iran is pulling:
Inside Tehran's toll booth
Iran is using formal, semi‑formal, and informal channels, as well as entirely new systems, to avoid US sanctions and sell oil to China.
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Venezuela's surveillance state did not fall with Maduro. The system is still running under Delcy Rodríguez. A joint research between @conexionsegura.bsky.social and the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's Democracy + Tech Initiative documents the repressive infrastructure. dfrlab.org/2026/03/26/w...
Watch the Watchers: Surveillance technologies for political control in Venezuela
Despite changes in leadership, Venezuela's extensive surveillance infrastructure remains fully operational.
dfrlab.org
To succeed in overthrowing the Iranian regime, an uprising would likely require a unifying leader, an effective organization, and the support of whatever remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, writes Alan Pino.
Trump wants Iranians to ‘take back their country' from the regime. Can they?
To succeed in overthrowing the Iranian regime, an uprising would likely require a unifying leader, an effective organization, and the support of whatever remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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The United States “must heed the lessons of history and avoid conflating the temporary satisfaction of decapitation strikes with a coherent strategy that will weaken cartels,” writes Charlotte Bertrand.
Decapitation strikes are not enough to take on Mexico’s cartels. Here’s what else the US should do.
Strikes on cartels should be combined with greater efforts to disrupt supply and reduce substance use disorder in the United States.
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Iran’s decision to target the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Gulf will have far-reaching consequences, writes Allison Minor. Read more:
The Gulf that emerges from the Iran war will be very different
Iran’s decision to target the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Gulf will have far-reaching consequences.
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Worried about how the Iran conflict could impact oil prices? “Now is not the time to hyperventilate over oil,” says the Atlantic Council’s Landon Derentz. The United States, he writes, should first focus on ensuring Iran does not emerge from the conflict “with a viable nuclear weapons program.”
Don't worry about the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices—yet
Markets can tolerate a spike. What they cannot tolerate is prolonged uncertainty over trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
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FAST THINKING: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli bombing campaign on Saturday. Atlantic Council experts assess the significance of the development for Iran and the broader region:
Iran's supreme leader is dead. Here's what it means.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed in a US-Israeli bombing campaign on Feb. 28.
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FAST THINKING: On Saturday morning, President Trump announced a “massive and ongoing” attack on Iran. With the goals, duration, and outcome of this emerging war still unclear, our experts make sense of the conflict’s early hours:
What Trump’s ‘Epic Fury’ means for Iran and the Middle East
Operation Epic Fury has begun. On Feb. 28, US President Donald Trump announced a “massive and ongoing” attack on Iran.
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#UkraineAlert – As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its fifth year, Moscow is increasingly relying on African recruits to prevent its battlefield losses from destabilizing the country, writes Katherine Spencer.
As Russian battlefield losses mount, Putin is turning to Africa for soldiers
Russia's growing reliance on African recruits to continue the war in Ukraine is a powerful symbol of an invasion that has gone horribly wrong for Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, writes Katherine Spencer.
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📈 Media organizations are increasingly treating prediction markets as authoritative signals. Policymakers should treat them as dual-use infrastructures that require deliberate guardrails, writes Matthew Wein.
Weaponizing the odds: Prediction markets as a new vector for foreign influence
As these markets proliferate, policymakers should treat them as dual-use infrastructures that require deliberate guardrails.
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🔴 What will the world look like in 2036? We asked 447 geostrategists and foresight experts to share their insights. 🇨🇳 China leads economically 🪖 Russia’s war in Ukraine freezes 🚀 More countries go nuclear 🤖 AI surpasses human capabilities Explore the survey’s ten biggest findings:
Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts
We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade.
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The Trump administration’s seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raise several crucial legal and logistical questions, writes Stephanie Connor. Read more:
When economic warfare meets gunboat diplomacy: What to know about the US seizures of shadow fleet tankers
The Trump administration's seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raises several crucial legal and logistical questions.
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The tentatively planned resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks this week does not mean US military action is off the table, writes Nate Swanson. Read more in Dispatches:
Seven things to know about the potential for resumed Iran nuclear negotiations
The tentatively planned resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks this week does not mean US military action is off the table.
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By focusing on shared interests on counternarcotics and Venezuela, Tuesday’s Oval Office meeting between the US and Colombian presidents can put the two nations’ bilateral relations on a better path, writes Kevin Whitaker.
To repair US-Colombia ties, Trump and Petro should focus on counternarcotics and Venezuela
By focusing on shared interests on counternarcotics and Venezuela, the US and Colombian presidents can put bilateral relations on a better path.
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🎙️ Introducing Guide to the Global Economy podcast, from our GeoEconomics Center. In the premiere episode, Josh Lipsky and Charles Lichfield discuss: what happens when a central bank loses independence? 🎧 Watch or listen now 👇 YouTube: https://bit.ly/4r8vHqI
The India-EU free trade deal announced on Tuesday is “one of the most dramatic markers yet of how the global system is reorganizing itself in the time of Trump,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPointsToday. Read more:
The ‘mother of all' trade deals in the time of Trump
On Tuesday, the European Union and India announced a free trade deal--an example of how the global system is reorganizing itself.
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A new entity controlling TikTok in the US is being sold as a step toward addressing foreign influence and data security concerns, writes Kenton Thibaut. But China’s influence campaigns and access to data on Americans do not rely on TikTok.
TikTok’s new ownership structure doesn’t solve security concerns for Americans
The deal does little to address the systemic challenges of information manipulation, foreign influence, and data exploitation on the platform.
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Trump’s ‘shock therapy’ approach to Europe has “broken decades of strategic complacency and forced long-postponed decisions on defense, trade, and autonomy,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPoints.
At Davos, Trump's ‘shock therapy' leaves Europe shaken but healthier
European leaders now recognize that the continent must fundamentally treat its chronic problems or further surrender global relevance.
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Trump’s willingness to engage in brinkmanship with Europe over Greenland will have a lasting impact on how the continent’s leaders approach relations with Washington, write Jorn Fleck and James Batchik.
Trump may move on from Greenland. Europe won’t.
Trump’s willingness to engage in brinkmanship with Europe over Greenland will have a lasting impact on how the continent’s leaders approach relations with Washington.
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FAST THINKING: The Justice Department is undertaking a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Our chair of international economics Josh Lipsky explains how this could impact US and global markets:
How will the Trump-Powell clash shake the global economy?
The US Justice Department is undertaking a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Our chair of international economics explains how this could impact US and global markets.
atlanticcouncil.org