Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot.bsky.social

Managing editor @votebeat.org. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

The AP has also called the #MI13 Democratic primary for state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who defeats incumbent Shri Thanedar. McKinney is a progressive but likely appealed to many voters who wanted Detroit to have a Black congressman again.

The AP has called the #MI10 Republican primary for Mike Bouchard Jr., son of a local sheriff, and the Democratic primary for prosecutor Christina Hines. This is a Trump+7 seat but should be quite competitive in November.

Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky have advanced to the general election in #WA04, per the AP. This is a safe GOP seat being vacated by Rep. Dan Newhouse, so McKinney is very probably headed for Congress.

The AP has called the #MI07 Democratic primary for progressive William Lawrence. Many Dems are worried he'll cost them this swing seat in November. Two more moderate candidates in the primary combined for 57% of the vote.

In a bit of an upset, state Sen. Cindy Holscher has won the Democratic primary for #KSgov, per the AP. She defeats Ethan Corson, who was Laura Kelly's preferred successor. Holscher is more anti-establishment, anti-data center, and anti-public money for the Chiefs stadium.

Detroit says they expect to get 4,000 absentee ballots in the next 20ish minutes for processing. The final 3,000? They expect that in 2-3 hours. Inching closer to being done in the city after those come in.

The AP is also projecting that Amendment 4 in Missouri will lose; it's currently getting crushed, 82–18%. This measure would have made it very hard to pass citizen-initiated constitutional amendments by requiring them to pass in every congressional district.

A Kansas ballot measure to change state Supreme Court justices from governor-appointed to popularly elected has failed (69–31% with 32% reporting). Republicans pushed the measure as a way to make the court more conservative.

The AP has called the Democratic primary in #MO01 for Rep. Wesley Bell. He's currently crushing former Rep. Cori Bush 71–26%, although only 26% of the vote is counted. A high-profile loss in an otherwise good year for progressives.

Hoskins choosing to do this today also makes it very likely that his office determined there are enough valid signatures and that can't be the way out.

Also, today is the deadline for the Missouri secretary of state to determine whether the redistricting veto referendum has qualified for the ballot. Problem is, they're also holding primaries today for the new (possibly soon-to-be-illegal) districts.