If a forensic accountant saw these numbers, they'd probably open an investigation. But they're looking at ordinary donations. Why do ActBlue and WinRed contributions fail Benford's Law, a famous test for financial fraud? New analysis from @bayespr.bsky.social votehub.com/2026/06/18/a...
Are the Campaigns Cooking the Books?
A 90-year-old fraud test flags American campaign finance as full of anomalies. What looks like fraud is just good user interface design by ActBlue and WinRed.
votehub.com
VoteHub projects Clayton Fuller to win the Georgia U.S. House District 14 general election.
NEW — Democrats are poised to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with turnout set to decide the margin in a low-salience race. We break down what to watch tonight. Read our full preview by @bayespr.bsky.social 👇 votehub.com/2026/04/07/w...
Wisconsin Spring Election Preview
Democrats are favored to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with margin hinging on turnout.
votehub.com
Hey, is that me? :) evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/10/e...
ETHS student aims to forecast 9th District Congressional race using betting market data - Evanston RoundTable
As the Democratic primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky ramps up in its final weeks, an Evanston Township High School student is developing
evanstonroundtable.com
IL9.org MODEL!! yay! After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇 Model: il9.org/odds
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
il9.org
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
Currently a 31% chance of a Biss-1st/ Fine-2nd finish! Check out more advanced Heatmap data and more 👇 IL9.org
Evanston Township High School student Ryan McComb built a really cool real-time aggregator site that collects data points on prediction markets, fundraising data and a bunch of other stuff for #IL09 👇🏼 Super cool stuff il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
il9.org
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter. Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949. (there was a small break in 63’)
On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
One thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.
