I, for one, am old enough to remember when President Trump would use standard deployments -- including ship swap outs -- paired with threats of military action as a form of coercion. The risk of escalation post-midterms is real, but so are the readiness tradeoffs.

Dan Lamothe@danlamothe.bsky.social · last wk.

The U.S. military is planning for a possible surge of thousands of naval forces to the Middle East in coming weeks, as President Donald Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, U.S. officials said Thursday. wapo.st/4hUh6xr

The Iran war is rapidly eating US readiness. The blockade is tying up the fleet, forces are stretched, maintenance deferred, and critical munitions are running low — all risking the US military being less prepared for future crises. My research in @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

The US can sustain the Iran blockade, but at a high cost. Over 30% of available warships are tied up, with operating costs near $1B a month. The war is sapping military readiness. The pressure on Iran may not be worth the price. My analysis featured in @bloomberg.com (gift link): t.co/Trnj7c13RC

The US can sustain the Iran blockade, but at a high cost. Over 30% of available warships are tied up, with operating costs near $1B a month. The war is sapping military readiness. The pressure on Iran may not be worth the price. My analysis featured in @bloomberg.com (gift link): t.co/Trnj7c13RC

Resharing this thread, apropos of nothing (and by nothing I mean more strikes on Iran eating up precious TLAMs):

Becca Wasser@beccawasser.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Is the US out of missiles? Not yet -- but it's running low on the right ones. Our new analysis estimates US missile stockpiles in the Iran War, leveraging US budget data and reporting. There's cause for concern, especially for air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles.

To survive an era of increased disorder, Middle Eastern countries “will have to rethink how they relate to the wider world—and, most important, to each other,” write @beccawasser.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, and @ziaddaoud.bsky.social.

The Impossible Middle East

After the Iran war, the region has no good options.

foreignaffairs.com

The USS George Washington has arrived in the Middle East, leaving the US without a carrier presence in Asia. Once again, a war in the Middle East war is eating Washington's attempts to pivot for lunch -- at the expense of readiness, alliances, and deterring China.

The US and Iran are in a protracted conflict: a war of attrition that erodes will and materiel to see who can last longest, marked by cyclic fighting and pauses to rebuild. Neither can force victory, but both can deny defeat. My new Weekend essay for Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran and the US Are Trapped In a War Neither Knows How to Win

A bitter rivalry lasting almost five decades has locked the two opponents into a protracted war. History tells us this doesn’t end well.

bloomberg.com

The US and Iran are in a protracted conflict: a war of attrition that erodes will and materiel to see who can last longest, marked by cyclic fighting and pauses to rebuild. Neither can force victory, but both can deny defeat. My new Weekend essay for Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran and the US Are Trapped In a War Neither Knows How to Win

A bitter rivalry lasting almost five decades has locked the two opponents into a protracted war. History tells us this doesn’t end well.

bloomberg.com

Is the US out of missiles? Not yet -- but it's running low on the right ones. Our new analysis estimates US missile stockpiles in the Iran War, leveraging US budget data and reporting. There's cause for concern, especially for air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles.

hey if you guys like podcasts, and my dumb voice, here I am talking about the current global arms race with the much-smarter @beccawasser.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...

you may appreciate this chart from the excellent @beccawasser.bsky.social (terminal subscribers only--sorry!). see if you can spot any fun patterns!

We analyzed a Kharg Island seizure back in March. It would be a difficult military operation that would put US forces at very high risk. Seizing Kharg would be one thing, but holding it under continued Iranian drone and missile attack puts US forces directly in the firing line. A fools errand.

Less than 12 hours after posting this research, the count of US military strikes is already obsolete.

Becca Wasser@beccawasser.bsky.social · 4mo ago

How many military strikes has the US launched in Trump's 2nd term? We compiled every strike acknowledged by the Pentagon. The total: 14,415 worldwide. The data shows Trump's proclivity to use military force worldwide -- even at great cost. That's unlikely to change: more strikes are coming. (1/4)

How many military strikes has the US launched in Trump's 2nd term? We compiled every strike acknowledged by the Pentagon. The total: 14,415 worldwide. The data shows Trump's proclivity to use military force worldwide -- even at great cost. That's unlikely to change: more strikes are coming. (1/4)

A high optempo and enormous munitions consumption in the Iran war is mortgaging future US military readiness. The risk is being less prepared for greater challenges, like a potential conflict with China. Featured in this must-read from @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran War Saps US Military Ahead of Any Potential China Conflict

A top Pentagon official’s remarks that the US had halted arms sales to Taiwan to ensure sufficient munitions for the Iran war are the latest sign that the conflict has sapped American military readine...

bloomberg.com

did you know reaper drones are "attritable" but also very expensive? well now you do! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran Has Destroyed Roughly $1 Billion Worth of US Reaper Drones

Iran has destroyed more than two dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones operated by US forces since the war began, a significant loss worth nearly $1 billion that represents 20% of the Pentagon’s prewar inventory f...

bloomberg.com

Can Europe buy its way into keeping Trump committed to NATO? Allies are hoping more arms purchases, co-production, and JVs will preserve US buy-in. But that strategy faces challenges and may not be enough as Trump prizes investment in the US. Quoted in @politico.eu: www.politico.eu/article/rutt...

Rutte’s new plan to keep Trump in NATO: Buy more from the US

Mark Rutte wants new focus on defense industry deals to close a yawning production gap in Europe — but also keep the U.S. president on board.

politico.eu

in december. that’s right www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Trump’s “Golden Dome” Missile Defense Plan Would Cost a Fortune

Building President Trump’s proposed missile and air defense system, meant to strike down threats all the way into space, would be an enormous task — with a huge price.

bloomberg.com

Gerry Doyle@mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 5mo ago

oh hey, you know who else came up with a $1.2 trillion price tag? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

oh hey, you know who else came up with a $1.2 trillion price tag? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump’s Golden Dome Shield to Cost $1.2 Trillion, Watchdog Says

President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile-defense shield will cost as much as $1.2 trillion to deploy and operate, six times above current forecasts, according to a new estimate — and would still l...

bloomberg.com

The US Navy faces millions of dollars in extra costs each time it sends a destroyer through the waterway, and such passages on their own are unlikely to reopen it. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US Navy Faces Rising Costs for Hormuz Missions With Strait Still Blocked

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsettled, the US Navy faces millions of dollars in extra costs each time it sends a destroyer through the waterway, and such passages on their own are unlikely...

bloomberg.com

The Pentagon claims the Iran war costs $25B. We crunched the numbers: $8B in munitions, $5B in equipment, $1B in operating costs for 2 carriers and 16 destroyers across 39 days of conflict. Missing: cost of base damage, other munitions. Analysis in @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Pentagon’s $25 Billion Price Tag for Iran War May Miss Key Costs

Top Pentagon officials finally put a price tag on the war in Iran so far during a contentious congressional hearing on Wednesday. Analysts say the $25 billion figure they cited underestimates the tota...

bloomberg.com

This week on WarTalk: I’m absent, the team talks ammo, Dark Eagle, wargames, and the wonderful @beccawasser.bsky.social joins the show! open.spotify.com/episode/1b19...

WarTalk: Still Very Much Out of Ammo!

Spotify video

open.spotify.com

Will Trump strike Iran again? If he decides yes, then the next 2 weeks stand out as key window. • Econ: blockade impact and oil shut-ins slower than desired • Mil: brief 3 carrier posture until Ford leaves; ARG + ground forces inbound • Pol: mid-May Xi meeting blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

hey, did you know the u.s. only has a handful of gucci hypersonic long-range strike weapons? did you also know that centcom wants to use them against iran? WELL NOW YOU DO (free link) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US Seeks to Deploy Hypersonic Missile For the First Time Against Iran

US Central Command has asked to send the Army’s long-delayed Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, seeking a longer-range system to hit ballistic-missile laun...

bloomberg.com

This is likely an accounting of munitions, destroyed equipment and some O&M costs. What it probably doesn’t cover is the cost of base damage -- in part because the Trump admin believes the Gulf states will underwrite reconstruction costs. The true bill for the Iran war is bound to be higher.

John Hudson@johnphudson.bsky.social · 6mo ago

New: The war in Iran has cost U.S. taxpayers $25 billion thus far, the Pentagon tells Congress

The US is delaying Japan’s Tomahawk missile purchase as the Iran war burns through stockpiles. I’ve warned that the high use and slow replenishment of TLAMs would create a gap. The readiness bill is now due and allies are bearing the cost. My comments: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Japan’s Order For Tomahawk Missiles Delayed by US Use in Iran

Japan’s order for hundreds of Tomahawk missiles from the US is under threat as the American-Israeli war with Iran burns through inventories, the latest example of how the conflict is drawing in suppli...

bloomberg.com

If the PLA invades, Taiwan could stop them at the shore w/UUVs, drone boats, swarms, missiles, & mines layered into a 4 ring gauntlet from the strait to the beach. Taiwan can create this Hellscape. We explain how. warontherocks.com/2026/03/hellscape-taiwan-a-porcupine-defense-in-the-drone-age/

Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age

It is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin

warontherocks.com

Casual reminder that the US has only procured 322 Tomahawks in the last 5 years. If the US shot 850 in Iran + a low estimate of 250 for strikes in the Middle East and Nigeria, it is clear replenishment rates do not match expenditure rates. The math doesn’t math, as they say.

George Pearkes@peark.es · 7mo ago

Is it good when Pentagon sources start using terms like "Winchester" with respect to munitions inventories.