To survive an era of increased disorder, Middle Eastern countries “will have to rethink how they relate to the wider world—and, most important, to each other,” write @beccawasser.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, and @ziaddaoud.bsky.social.

The Impossible Middle East

After the Iran war, the region has no good options.

foreignaffairs.com

Great overview from @ziaddaoud.bsky.social of how the MENA region's rentier model goes beyond oil and gas to encompass land sales, foreign aid, trade routes and more. Looking ahead, renewables will cut CO2 but won't democratize the region so long as deployment remains firmly in state hands.

A Theory of Everything for the Middle East Political Economy

MEI Senior Fellow Ziad Daoud provides a comprehensive analysis of rentierism in the Middle East, documenting how rent-based economies are common across resource-rich and resource-poor states, and expl...

belfercenter.org

Not the easiest of times, but it's always engaging to discuss the war, economics, the Middle East, and markets at our Bloomberg office in Dubai. Thanks to everyone who joined us today!

Iraq is offering a $33 discount on oil The catch: Buyers have to transit Hormuz to collect the barrels Number of vessels loading at the port of Basra: • Before the war: 80 a month • March: 12 • April: 2 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraq Slashes Oil Prices for Buyers Willing to Transit Hormuz

Iraq is offering its term buyers huge discounts for crude loaded this month, but tankers will have to transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect the barrels deep inside the Persian Gulf just as hostiliti...

bloomberg.com

Friends at Bloomberg Businessweek asked me to tally the economic costs of the Iran war So far: • Oil: record glut → historic disruption • Borrowing costs: higher • Income growth: slower The worst part? The bill may still rise Read the full assessment here 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

How the Iran War Threatens Global Economic Growth

Oil prices will remain high and the cost of borrowing will go up as the conflict continues.

bloomberg.com

What happened Monday? • US says 2 destroyers transited Hormuz • UAE says it intercepted Iranian missiles, blamed drones for fire at Fujairah & strike on ADNOC tanker • Calls in US & Israel to renew attacks on Iran Oil rose from $108 to $114 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US and Iran Trade Fire in Gulf, Jolting Four-Week-Old Truce

The US and Iran exchanged fire in a flareup of violence on Monday that also drew in the United Arab Emirates, prompting calls for renewed strikes on Iranian targets and casting doubt on the fate of a ...

bloomberg.com

Why did the UAE ask for a currency swap facility with the US? Minister of Foreign Trade: “It is an elite matter. It is not about bailing out” That was my interpretation too when the news broke www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

UAE Says Swap Talks With US Are About Joining ‘Elite’ Group

The United Arab Emirates signaled its currency swap talks with the US were about joining a small club with access to Federal Reserve liquidity lines rather than a need for external financing.

bloomberg.com

"Iran attacked the UAE for the first time in almost a month" "Several mobile-phone alerts were sent to people in Dubai, urging them to get to safe areas, and other emirates including Abu Dhabi" Oil jumped to $114 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A full economic recovery in Israel hinges on two assumptions: (1) wars are over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage Now there's another war & another consensus downgrade to its growth forecast Full analysis on why Israel's economy can't outrun its wars on the Bloomberg terminal

Another new initiative that doesn't move the needle • Trump says the US will guide ships trapped in the Gulf through Hormuz • The initiative doesn't currently involve navy escorts • Oil markets shrugged: prices are higher now than on Friday www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

OPEC+ agreed to raise production quotas for June 2 issues loom large: 1. Hormuz closure means many members can't get their oil out to the world regardless of quotas 2. UAE's exit from the group means higher non-OPEC+ output if & when the Iran war ends www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

OPEC+ Agrees to Symbolic June Quota Increase, Delegates Say

Major OPEC+ nations agreed a modest and symbolic increase in their June production quota levels, as the group sends a business-as-usual message following the surprise exit of the United Arab Emirates....

bloomberg.com

Oil isn't the only market where the Iran war is showing up Before the war, markets expected US interest rates to fall this year (blue) Today, they expect rates to stay unchanged (orange) The war is making consumers pay more for energy & more for loans

Oil is at $108 That's the exact number Dina Esfandiary & I warned about in January if war broke out in the Middle East We laid out the history, the scenarios, the maths, and what $108 crude does to the global economy Weekend reading, perhaps 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The $108 Oil War: Can the Middle East Crash the World Economy?

Half a century ago, turmoil in the Middle East brought the global economy to its knees. Today, even as the region’s geopolitics grow more fractious, oil markets and central banks typically treat confl...

bloomberg.com

What do the UAE’s OPEC exit, Houthi restraint in the Red Sea, and a Saudi loan to Pakistan have in common? They point to 4 alliances shaping the Mideast today: 1. Iran + its axis 2. UAE + Israel 3. Saudi + Pakistan 4. Turkey + Qatar Analysis, with Dina Esfandiary, on the Bloomberg terminal

Had to do with June futures contracts rolling into July

Oil went all the way up to $125 today It has since fallen to $114 I'm struggling to find the news driver

Trump: “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing” Sure: oil is at $119 It's the highest level not only during this Iran war, but since June 2022

How much oil is Saudi exporting from the Red Sea? About 4 million barrels a day in the first 3 weeks of April That compares with about 7 million barrels before the Iran war www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraqi politicians chose Ali Al-Zaidi as new candidate for prime minister Relatively unknown, he has a month to submit his government to parliament for approval The US Embassy in Baghdad appeared pleased with the choice www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraq Politicians Chose New Candidate for PM After Trump Pressure

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki ended his bid to reclaim the role after pressure from the US, which was concerned by his close links to Iran.

bloomberg.com

Why did the UAE leave OPEC? It has a different vision from Saudi on: 1. Oil: Saudi seeks higher prices; UAE wants higher output (chart) 2. Region: Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Somalia 3. Iran war: Pakistan loan is another sign of the rift Analysis, with Dina Esfandiary, on the Bloomberg terminal

In Dubai and want to discuss the Middle East, economics, and where the world is heading? Join us in person: • When? Friday, 8 May • What time? 10am • Where? Bloomberg's Dubai office To attend, please register here: go.bloomberg.com/attend/invit...

In January, Dina Esfandiary & I wrote that the Saudi-UAE rift could spill over to OPEC The Iran war didn't heal that fracture And today, the UAE announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+

Oil identity: supply = demand + inventory change What did the Iran war do? • Cut supply by ~10% • Forced adjustment through lower demand & inventory releases – mix unknown • If stockpiles run down, the world may need still-lower demand & higher prices www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Billion-Barrel Hormuz Oil Shock Is About to Crash Demand

The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.

bloomberg.com

What does the Iran war say about the dollar? Short term: still king • Beat other currencies • Beat gold • Beat bitcoin in 2026 Long term: cracks • US alienating allies • No decisive victory • Hormuz fees in yuan & crypto Full analysis, with Adriana Dupita, on the Bloomberg terminal

The double blockade has frozen Hormuz • Some Iranian ships are moving, but not passing the US blockade line • Other vessels aren't sailing past Iranian control • Oil has risen to $111 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Egypt is relaxing early-closing restrictions on shops, introduced after the Iran war to curb energy consumption Is it because: a) the energy crunch is easing; or b) the costs of the restrictions exceed their benefits? www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Cairo’s Legendary Late Nights Are Back After Energy Curbs Eased

Egypt’s capital is known for its all-hours buzz. A government effort to reduce power consumption has forced stores and cafés to shut up early.

bloomberg.com

Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz • Extend the ceasefire • Postpone nuclear negotiations • Lift the US blockade What do oil markets think? Price is up to $108 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

On the 10th anniversary of Saudi Vision 2030, I think my late-2024 talk at Harvard still holds Yes, Saudi has made progress on social openness But economically, the kingdom has become more dependent on oil than in 2016 www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ae...

Diversifying from Oil: Aspirations and Results of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

YouTube video by Harvard Growth Lab

youtube.com

5 things that happened this week: War in Limbo • Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely after saying he was unlikely to • Iran's foreign minister & US envoys are in Pakistan • Israel says it's waiting on US green light to escalate against Iran 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Original US plan: Iran will be like Venezuela That didn't work New plan: Iranian leadership is divided; if we get rid of hardliners, we may pull a Venezuela with the moderates