New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...

The Surprising Climate Story Behind Booming U.S. LNG Exports

barrons.com

📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers

trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days cc @heatmap.news heatmap.news/sparks/renew...

Trump Pauses Permitting for All Renewables on Federal Lands

A newly released memo from the Department of the Interior freezes the pipeline for 60 days.

heatmap.news

Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.

Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com · 2y ago

A bold take on podcasting from my (temporary) replacement Martin Wolf…

Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...

The Co-Evolution of the Canada-U.S. Oil Industry and Possible Implications of Donald Trump’s Re-election

The United States and Canada are the two fastest growing sources of non-OPEC oil production today and, for more than a decade, have made up the bulk of non-OPEC supply growth. While supply from the re...

cgai.ca

Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why Biden’s Farewell Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal

The US on Friday announced the most sweeping and aggressive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House to be replaced by Donald Trump as president.

bloomberg.com

Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports -RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels) -weekly LNG imports slightly increased -LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88% -EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15% www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...

ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...

Experts React: DOE LNG Study Highlights and Implications

The Department of Energy released its long-awaited study on U.S. liquified natural gas exports, offering a comprehensive update on economic and environmental analysis. Experts discuss key highlights a...

csis.org

Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...

Transition Live Updates: To Avert Shutdown, Republicans Consider Rejecting Trump’s Priority

nytimes.com

How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...

Donald Trump tells EU to buy US oil and gas or face tariffs

US president-elect warns bloc that member states will face tariffs unless they make big purchases

ft.com

Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive). www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...

Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...

‘Unfettered’ Gas Exports Would Harm U.S. Economy, Energy Secretary Warns

Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable.”

nytimes.com

No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2

Justin Mikulka@justinmikulka.bsky.social · 2y ago

If the EU has real regulations to require low associated methane emissions for the full life cycle for its imported LNG, the US can't qualify. The Biden admin has already asked Europe to loosen these regs. A parting gift to us from the Biden admin.

🔴New Paper! Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study! We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months! This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌 #EnergySky

Multiscale Measurements of Greenhouse Gas Emissions at U.S. Natural Gas Liquefaction Terminals

Addressing methane emissions across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain is key to reducing climate impacts of LNG. Actions to address methane emissions have emphasized the importance of the u...

pubs.acs.org

Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...

Exclusive: Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s transition team is recommending sweeping changes to cut off support for electric vehicles and charging stations and to strengthen measures blocking cars, compone...

aol.com

US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 2y ago

Breaking News: Chrystia Freeland, Canada's deputy prime minister, resigned from her cabinet role, suggesting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tried to force her out.

Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation www.ft.com/content/50ec...

New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...

Trump 2.0: Oil Market Implications for the Gulf States

As Trump seeks to maximize U.S. oil and gas output and choke off Iran’s oil exports, he will have no qualms about leaning into oil market issues.

agsiw.org

Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.

Rory Johnston@roryjohnston.bsky.social · 2y ago

Each of the major oil market outlook have their structural flaws. For the IEA, a core issue has been that they're far too bearish on OECD demand. This year alone, IEA initially expected a **400** kbpd contraction—since upgraded to 100 kbpd growth. Half-million bpd swing!

This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!

Eric Columbus@ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 2y ago

In a 24-hour span, Trump announces jobs for the fathers-in-law of both of his daughters

The DOE US #LNG study could be out very soon. Here's what I'll be watching. 1. The conclusions on domestic gas prices. How much could a sharp increase in LNG exports drive up domestic gas prices? And how will domestic prices be linked to international gas market conditions? (Continued)

OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. They are likely to (for a third time) delay their plans to bring barrels back online, after years of deep production cuts. The focus is on compliance, since Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are producing above target. The US shale boom is still hard to handle for OPEC+.

A visit from Saudi and Russian leaders ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. Sure looks like they're not happy with Iraq's compliance. More than 300 mb/d over quota for October, according to the IEA. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraq, Russia, Saudi Discuss Energy Markets Before OPEC+ Meeting

Officials from Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia — three of the biggest nations in the OPEC+ alliance — met in Baghdad to discuss energy markets days before the group’s year-end gathering.

bloomberg.com

Is Trump serious about 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, or is this an opening salvo to get a "deal"? Either way it's a terrible idea. The U.S. imported 3.89 million barrels per day of Canadian crude last year. (More than 10x U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia, btw).

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2y ago

Trump announces blanket tariffs on goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China

Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would 🚢 Approve new LNG export plants 🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land 🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV ⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Exclusive: Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say

The package would approve export permits for new LNG projects and increase oil drilling off the U.S. coast and on federal lands.

reuters.com

"Drill, baby, drill" is at odds with current industry realities: capital discipline, the price environment, and the depletion of sweet spots outside the Permian Basin. That slogan is really shorthand for: deregulate and build more O&G infrastructure. Which is not as catchy!

Robinson Meyer@robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 2y ago

“Hamm does argue that D.C. regulation stymies the day-to-day business of the oil and gas industry… But even a fully unleashed U.S. energy sector would struggle to overcome output declines from maturing shale fields.”

Quoted in this Washington Post story. Data centers, AI, and manufacturing mean significant load growth. Gas demand scenarios are changing. That makes it all the more important to cut emissions from U.S. gas production. It's a bad idea to roll back methane regulations! wapo.st/3CHeQHR

AI’s hunger for electric power is threatening U.S. climate goals

The enormous electricity needs of artificial intelligence are driving plans for scores of new fossil fuel plants with decades of expected service life.

wapo.st

Yes. I'm an oil and gas analyst with a strong interest in climate policy. I try to engage with oil & gas X and climate X. The algorithms really messed with visibility and engagement. But at least in my X feed, there is more diversity of views and even (sometimes!) dialogue.

Michael Wara@michaelwara.bsky.social · 2y ago

Does anybody else worry that this site is going to eliminate the bipartisan discussion on energy/climate/wildfire that used to happen on X? That’s the only reason I am still there. What I see is a bifurcation of two audiences that I want to talk with and that need to talk to each other.

Important read on priorities for the incoming Senate EPW chair. Covers permitting reform, support for nuclear, IRA methane fee and MERP funding, and more. Looks like a big reconciliation bill is on the horizon. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024...

POLITICO Pro: POLITICO Pro Q&A: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, incoming EPW chair

In an interview with POLITICO, the West Virginia Republican laid out her priorities, including digging into a permitting rules overhaul and maintaining a focus on helping nuclear power grow.

subscriber.politicopro.com

Brilliant article on illicit Iranian oil trade to China via ship-to-ship transfers offshore Malaysia. Cool visuals and lots of good details on this regulatory no man's land. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

The Clandestine Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China

A burgeoning group of dark fleet vessels operating with impunity on the edge of a major maritime thoroughfare is moving hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned oil — and risking an environmental...

bloomberg.com