Ben Zaranko
@benzaranko.bsky.social
Economics Editor, The Observer Sign up for my newsletter: https://observer.co.uk/newsletters
Total unpaid council tax debt in England increased to £7.4 billion at the end of March, up from £6.6 billion a year earlier, in a sign that households are struggling with their bills. In inflation-adjusted terms, council tax arrears have increased by 20% over three years.
Adult social care is mostly a local responsibility. The exception is NHS continuing healthcare, a national programme providing free care to those who qualify. It's the mother of all postcode lotteries. Application success rates in Manchester were 12x higher than in Gloucestershire in Q1 2026.
In case you missed it: I tackled one of the great moral questions of our age earlier this week
Ben Zaranko@benzaranko.bsky.social · last wk.In today's newsletter, I've tackled one of the big questions of the day: why don't Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? observer.co.uk/news/busines...
Question for the devolution nerds: Ben Houchen won't be allowed to cut income tax *rates*, but what's to stop him using his share of local income tax receipts to send out cheques worth the same amount, as a *spending* programme? Practicalities? Does he lack the required spending powers?
Based on today's fiscal devolution (re)announcement, it's not clear (to me) whether mayors will be allowed to borrow against local income tax revenues, or whether this is just about providing more control and stronger growth incentives. Direction of travel clear, but the details will matter a lot!
Sensible policy klaxon 🚨 Currently, if a 16 year old chooses to stay in school/college, their family can keep claiming benefits as before (notably child benefit). If they opt for an apprenticeship, the benefits stop. The system discourages apprenticeships. The DWP just announced a fix 🧵
In today's newsletter, I've tackled one of the big questions of the day: why don't Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? observer.co.uk/news/busines...
Why don’t Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? | The Observer
Growing up in economic hard times can lead to a ‘zero sum’ approach to politics – and an aversion to buying rounds
observer.co.uk
"Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it could be the answer to the youth Neets crisis." Interesting and well thought through piece by @benzaranko.bsky.social: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
For every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 is spent paying them benefits. A rebalancing from passive to active support is on the cards. What could that look like? What questions does it raise? I went to Sunderland to find out: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it co...
A Sunderland community centre shows how mentoring helps young people find work – and why cash benefits are less effective in the long term than tough love and job placements
observer.co.uk
For every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 is spent paying them benefits. A rebalancing from passive to active support is on the cards. What could that look like? What questions does it raise? I went to Sunderland to find out: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it co...
A Sunderland community centre shows how mentoring helps young people find work – and why cash benefits are less effective in the long term than tough love and job placements
observer.co.uk
This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern.
Jemima Kelly@jemima.bsky.social · 2w agoAn amazing chart showing how much wealth inequality in Britain has *fallen* over the past century - taken from this Quillette piece on Channel 4's failure to fact-check the whole premise of its Gary Stevenson documentary. quillette.com/2026/07/14/g...
There will be lots of focus on the Number 10-Treasury relationship under Burnham and Healey. I think we should also keep an eye on the Treasury-Bank of England relationship, as the new government goes on the hunt for "flexibility" within the existing fiscal rules... observer.co.uk/news/politic...
Burnham, Healey and Haigh: prepare for a shift in fiscal ...
The relationship between No 10, the Treasury and the Bank of England is not set in stone. The new PM and his team, especially Haigh, aren’t convinced
observer.co.uk
The rate of VAT on household electricity bills will be cut from 5% to 0% from 1 October. It is expected to take about £45 off the average bill, at a cost to the exchequer of around £850 million in 2026–27. A few immediate thoughts:
Here's a remarkable stat. From 2004 to 2024, the number of people aged 65 and above in England increased by 3 million, or 38%. Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 and above receiving long-term social care support fell by 235,000, or 37%.
My assessment of Reeves' time as Chancellor, informed by the views of lots of smart people. observer.co.uk/news/politic...
Top summary by @benzaranko.bsky.social in today’s Observer which cites my comments (see also blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/bftbblog2607...) as well as comments by the excellent Jun Du & Simon French. @regstud.bsky.social @acadsocsciences.bsky.social @cssjournal.bsky.social @prt1969.bsky.social
A very fair and balanced assessment of Rachel Reeves' time as Chancellor by @benzaranko.bsky.social, summarising the views of me and a dozen other economists. observer.co.uk/news/politic...
What do 12 economists think of Rachel Reeves? The jury’s out
It looks like time’s up for Britain’s first female chancellor, so I asked a dozen experts to review her record on tax, public investment, productivity and growth
observer.co.uk
Pernickety factual point. Government figures keep talking about how English NHS waiting lists are falling. They are not. They have increased in the last two months (up by 172k since March). They've fallen since Labour entered office, but that's not the same thing.
Interesting impact of the renters' rights act noted in Foxtons trading update yesterday, with students using it to end their tenancies early.
Fiscal policy is for life, not just for Budget time. My piece on the OBR's long-term projections, which get far less attention than their assessments of performance against the fiscal rules, but which are far more interesting 👇 observer.co.uk/news/busines...
The case for raising taxes on older people | The Observer
People are living longer, pushing up health and pension spending, and making debt projections look scary
observer.co.uk
An ageing population will mean higher spending on pensions and the NHS, which risks putting the UK national debt on an unsustainable long-term trajectory, per the OBR. The government should consider shifting the balance of tax towards older people, to support revenues as the population ages.
This is a very fun piece on the different camps in the billionaire tax debate. I particularly liked this paragraph 👇 “They are probably French”
Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com · 4w agoIn the debate over wealth taxes, who do you most identify with? Lots of options... link: www.ft.com/content/bf18... gift link: as.ft.com/r/0abf4348-b...
I don't always agree with Simon (indeed, he links here to several pieces of mine which disagree with him!) but he's always worth reading
Simon Wren-Lewis@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 4w agoY'days post: The UK’s falling debt to GDP fiscal rule is a rule to suppress public investment mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... Using schemes like PFI to get around the constraint on public investment imposed by the falling debt to GDP rule is just absurd.
Great chart from the OBR. If the low productivity trends of the last 15 years persist, someone born in 1991 will experience no more cumulative GDP growth over their lifetime than someone born in 1901.
An incredible detail in @paticlarke.bsky.social's piece about the battle to provide tech solutions to the UK government observer.co.uk/news/technol...
Greater fiscal devolution within the UK could promote economic growth, but has its challenges. Giving mayors a % of local tax revenues would give them more incentives to make growth-friendly decisions, but might mean "postcode lotteries" and wider gaps between regions. [1/4]
